Republican narrative

Donald Trump continues to lead Joe Biden in the vast majority of polls, both nationally and in key swing states, as voters across America wake up to Biden's terrible record on the economy, immigration, and national security. While the Democrat-allied media will attempt to generate some enthusiasm for Biden by claiming that he is catching up to Trump, the truth remains that the Democrats' only hope in November is to engage in more shenanigans. The people are tired, and there's no way Joe Biden will win if there's a fair election.

Democratic narrative

Joe Biden's re-election path may appear difficult, but several factors play in his favor, not least improvements in the economy and the Democratic party's performance in the recent elections. Most importantly, Trump is still facing a litany of legal issues that are yet to be resolved. Voters' “social desirability” bias is bound to play against Trump, especially if he is convicted in any of the many cases he is battling right now.

Nerd narrative

There is a 61% chance that a debate will be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

It's no secret that Iran and Hamas maintain close ties and are united in the fight against Israel's brutal war on Gaza. The fact that the US changed course by not vetoing this recent UN resolution in favor of an immediate ceasefire indicates that Israel now has its back against the wall. Moreover, Tel Aviv has failed to achieve any of its military objectives in Gaza, even after six months of heavy fighting. Hamas will not be defeated and Haniyeh's trip to Tehran underlines the reality that the resistance will continue until Israel ends its bloody campaign.

Narrative B

Haniyeh’s trip confirms that the Hamas terrorists can rely on the Iranian regime's continued support following their unprecedented attack on Oct. 7. Hamas continues to demonstrate that it has no real interest in peace, rejecting the Israeli proposal for a hostage deal and truce. Hamas feels strengthened by the fact that the US did not veto the anti-Israeli Security Council resolution. However, despite Washington's historic failure motivated by domestic politics, Israel will not be deterred in its legitimate struggle to free the hostages and combat terror.

Nerd narrative

There is a 67% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The Falepili Union is a historic agreement. Both Tuvalu and Australia benefit. On one hand, it will allow Tuvaluans to migrate gradually and with dignity, as the Pacific Island nation is at risk of disappearing due to climate change. On the other hand, this three-part integration initiative marks a significant victory for Canberra in its efforts to keep Beijing at bay in the region.

Narrative B

Australia has long been the bully in the South Pacific, acting as the manager of the US in what they perceive as the country's backyard and treating island nations as vassal states with a colonialist mentality. This treaty with Tuvalu is just the latest attempt to protect its hegemonic system while more constructive actors in a multipolar world, like China, seek to ramp up cooperation and economic exchange in Oceania.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance the sea level rise in 2100 will be at least 591 millimeters, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The comments of Lukashenko directly contradict the claims of Putin that Ukraine somehow facilitated this attack. Not only has this been vehemently rejected by Ukraine and the US, but IS itself has claimed responsibility. All the evidence points to them being the perpetrators in this case.

Pro-Russia narrative

The US has backed itself into a corner by jumping the gun to proclaim that IS is responsible. How can US officials talk with the media within 24 hours of the attack with absolute certainty as to who and who was not to blame, especially as Russia's investigation to determine the facts is ongoing? This alone is incriminating, notwithstanding IS' ties to Western intelligence.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of president of Russia by February 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Maduro has been building a tyrannical government for over ten years now, but this move has gone further than any other. Even Brazil and Colombia voiced their opposition to banning Yoris, emphasizing that it violates the Barbados agreement signed by Maduro and the opposition last October. Maduro can no longer hide behind his typical claims of Western or American interference, as even his Latin American counterparts are calling his bluff.

Establishment-critical narrative

PUD is a US puppet that threatens Venezuela's sovereignty, so it's fully justified to block their candidates. While the US has condemned Maduro for his actions, Washington is the one who suspended Venezuelan oil licenses, blocked it from selling gold, and conducted coups — which has led to 40K starvation-related deaths and a national exodus of 7M Venezuelans. The US wants control of Latin American resources to fund its global wars.

Nerd narrative

There's a 40% chance that there will be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While AI hype has catalyzed stock values for Big Tech, lower and middle class blue- and white-collar workers are at danger. Regulation must be passed to ensure that — if a major workplace revolution occurs — those left in the dust are looked after. If not, societal divisions will exponentially increase for the worse.

Narrative B

To the disappointment of many 20th century dystopian fantasists, technology is not here to take over the world. It's likely AI will merely ease the load of repetitive workforce tasks that have historically degraded the role of humans to soulless machines in the workforce. Many sectors of the job market are irreplaceable and rely on emotional nuances that technology will never be able to replicate.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that an AI will be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This history-making vote brings Thai society one step closer to an equal society for all people. Legalizing same-sex marriage reduces social disparity across the nation and will benefit all Thai people, setting an example for other Asian countries.

Narrative B

Although this is an impressive step toward legalizing same-sex marriage in Thailand, this bill isn't law yet. Thailand is fairly tolerant but it's still a conservative country, and the success of this bill is not set in stone and the cultural context must be accounted for.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 20% of the world's population will live in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

This anti-American gag order is dangerous because it violates the First Amendment rights of a candidate for the presidency to defend against potentially politically motivated criminal charges. Even the gag order seems politically motivated because it only restricts Trump's speech but the witnesses against him are permitted to continue commenting.

Anti-Trump narrative

This gag order should be applauded because it'll keep people who are just doing their jobs related to this case from being put in the crosshairs by Trump's violence-inspiring rhetoric. In addition to holding him accountable for his crimes, he should have to face the music over his insults and threats that endanger so many people by making them targets for his supporters.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Trump will be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

Those who bought this meme stock — whether they're real investors or just Trump supporters — and ignored Trump's history of using his failed businesses as a tool to cash out at the expense of his supporters and pay off his legal bills are in for a surprise. DJT shares will plummet once this nefarious scheme is over.

Pro-Trump narrative

The former president has pulled off a brilliant last-minute victory in the face of the unrelenting ire of New York's corrupt legal system. While he still faces many other uphill legal battles — as well as a closing deadline to actually pay off his civil trial bond — this news is certainly a cause for celebration for Trump and his campaign.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Trump's net worth will be at least $2.42B in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

Pres. Xi’s meeting with American business leaders on Monday was a great success and a positive development for strengthened relations between the world's two largest economies. Political differences between two great nations will always exist, but they cannot be allowed to derail mutually beneficial relations that impact the entire world. Pres. Xi is attentive and receptive to the concerns of foreign governmental and business leaders, and Beijing is willing to cooperate to foster a stronger global economy.

Anti-China narrative

Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party are desperate to revive the PRC's struggling economy, as they recognize that their totalitarian policies have caused the current predicament. In order to reach its goal of 5% gross domestic product growth in 2024, China will need to increase foreign investment, which fell drastically last year. This won't be easy with many governments and businesses hesitant to deal in a country that has become a global antagonist with an unrestrained ruling party. Xi will try to ease global concerns, but he has already done too much damage to China's economy.

Nerd narrative

There is a 55% chance that China's GDP will exceed the United States’ GDP in any year before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.