Left narrative

Brexiteers had pledged that the farming sector would be better off if the UK, which imports nearly half of its food and has traditionally neglected domestic production, left the EU. Unsurprisingly, the country is now on the brink of major food shortages due to a combination of border checks that brought confusion, ill-planned subsidies, and price pressure from retailers.

Right narrative

Though post-Brexit agricultural policies do play a role in the current farming crisis, these are only minor factors within a much wider problem. Following farming protests in France and Germany, it was only a matter of time before British farmers escalated their demonstrations. Unsustainable high productions costs, crop losses, and slow economic growth throughout Europe cannot be blamed solely on Brexit.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the United Kingdom will apply to rejoin the EU by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

The sale of future fighter jets to other nations is part of Japan's strategy to not limit itself to a supporting role in global defense projects. The move comes amid neighboring China's emergence as an aggressive military power, which concerns Tokyo given the many disputes it has with Beijing in the East and South China Seas. China's frequent war games with Russia around Japan haven't soothed nerves either.

Pro-China narrative

Japan has already broken from its decades-long principle of pacifism, but that's not all Tokyo wants to do. By loosening its lethal weapon export rules, on top of expanding its military partnership with the US, Kishida's government is slowly working its way toward terminating Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which prohibits the military from engaging in warfare. Given Japan's history of aggression, the entire region will be on high alert, not just China.

Cynical narrative

Japan's increasing interest in military affairs will be complex from any perspective. Japan's military posturing, through alliances and its existing offensive capabilities, always had Beijing on the radar. While China is currently focused on increasing economic pressures, it will now be forced to redirect resources and shift its focus away from its financial issues. Tokyo's change symbolizes the increasing challenges of navigating the "multipolar world."

Nerd narrative

There is a 51% chance that Japan will respond with military force if China invades Taiwan before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Assange must be freed. The illegitimate attacks by the American state against the WikiLeaks founder for exposing the US' war crimes in Iraq are nothing short of disgraceful, constituting a level of persecution against whistleblowers previously unseen in American legal history. America is seeking to punish Assange for revealing the truth about their illegal military operations — journalism and transparency must be protected at all costs.

Pro-establishment narrative

Julian Assange is no journalist. Not only did he publish millions of stolen classified documents, he indirectly helped repressive regimes in Iran and China, as well as terror organizations such as al-Qaida, by disseminating that material. Such actions put US soldiers and sources in extreme danger. The US Dept. of Justice is correct to go after him.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Julian Assange will not be extradited to the US after Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

As part of the Communist Party's plan to clean up sports by fighting corruption, a court has delivered a just sentence. Chen Xuyuan was given a life sentence for match-fixing, taking bribes, and financial crimes. As part of Xi Jinping's goal to make China a football superpower by 2050, he plans to build thousands of new football fields and enroll kids in new football academies — as well as root out corruption.

Anti-China narrative

Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign is taking things too far. Life in prison and the death penalty for corruption are unusual punishments for white-collar crimes in the Western world, but not uncommon in China. Human rights organizations have long accused the Chinese government of using torture to extract alleged corruption confessions. For an issue like corruption in sports, this verdict was too strong.

Nerd narrative

There's a 22% that China will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Infrastructure in parts of the US has been neglected, and this can be the result of not putting money and ingenuity into preserving important roads and bridges. Other states should follow the lead of Florida, which has underwater structures to redirect ships that go off track, and builds its bridges with redundancy — the ability to perform their function even when damaged. Neglected American infrastructure must be addressed.

Narrative B

Maybe the bridge could've been in better shape at the time of this incident, but the quality of the bridge isn't to blame for this incident. This should be a lesson that shipping traffic needs to be better managed, and the size of cargo ships needs to be restricted. Even if this bridge had been rated better than fair — a classification most bridges in the US have — it might not have been a match for this extra-large vessel.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that an infrastructure disaster costing over $1B in a G20 country will be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This suit and others like it are Musk's attempt to leverage his immense wealth to silence critics, despite his claims of being a free-speech absolutist. Throwing out this nuisance lawsuit was the best way for the courts to discourage Musk from continuing to pursue legal action to squelch free speech, and empower organizations like the CCDH to continue their work without fear of legal repercussions.

Narrative B

Legal action is the only way for Musk to fight back against advocacy groups that disagree with the content on X. These groups attack the platform by telling advertisers lies about the content and then threaten those companies into pulling their money. Those groups are the true opponents of free speech and Musk has no choice but to sue them for putting the financial future of X in peril.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Musk will become the first trillionaire, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

It's absurd that physicians who have a right under federal law to refrain from performing abortions are asking the government to restrict any and all access to mifepristone. These medical professionals are not being injured, so they have no standing. If SCOTUS rules otherwise, it'll be another sign of how little the extreme-right justices value the freedoms bestowed by the Constitution.

Right narrative

Medical professionals have standing to sue the FDA on behalf of the unborn children who won't get to live if the FDA is permitted to make mifepristone so widely available. The FDA's weakened safeguards will also put women's health at risk and put doctors in precarious positions when forced to treat mothers who take mifepristone without professional guidance.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

As legal challenges against him mount, it's anything but surprising that Bolsonaro would hide and seek asylum at the Hungarian embassy. He has long been close friends with his fellow far-right compatriot Orbán — a relationship that prompted Budapest to offer assistance to get him re-elected. And this wouldn't be unprecedented as Bolsonaro ran away to America to skip Lula's inauguration before.

Right narrative

Given that the Times broke this story shortly after CIA director William Burns traveled to Brazil, it's hard to believe that this political thriller isn't part of deliberate efforts by the Biden administration to damage the reputations of conservative champions Bolsonaro and Orbán. Even Brazilian justices who have persecuted the former president know that these latest allegations would be too much.

Nerd narrative

There's a 60% chance that any member country will leave BRICS before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

In his official capacity, Clark chose to back Trump's lies over the Constitution and the will of the people. For someone who attempted a coup, disbarment is the least he deserves and the Georgia case just might bring him more punishment. It's paramount that those who took part in Trump's attempted coup face the music while he seeks another presidential term.

Pro-Trump narrative

Clark is only guilty of exercising his First Amendment right to question the election results. Since then he's had his name dragged through the mud by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 riots at the Capitol, and faced criminal charges in Georgia. Now he's facing this kangaroo court trying to disbar him. This witch hunt against Trump and everyone associated with him has to stop.

Nerd narrative

There's a 17% chance that any state will refuse to certify the results of the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas' military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always support Israel in maintaining its security. However, Netanyahu is going too far with the war in Gaza, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises and compromise as needed so that another extended truce can take effect. Netanyahu must also understand that Israel only pushes Palestinians into Hamas' hands when it kills civilians.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though the media and international agencies are more than happy to parrot Qatari-backed Hamas-adjacent propaganda, the truth is Israel is one of the few countries in the world to go as far as it does to ensure the safety of civilians. Of course, war is a tragedy that often creates situations in which individuals commit heinous acts. What makes Israel different, however, is that it actively investigates and holds accountable those who commit abuses, and the media should spend more time investigating Hamas' terrorist atrocities to which Israel has been forced to respond.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The laundry list of Israel's crimes in Gaza grows by the day. Even if not every allegation is true, the course of this war and the sheer amount of condemning evidence clearly demonstrates a systematic policy of targeting Palestinian civilians. The international community is increasingly recognizing that Israel is guilty of the crime of genocide in Gaza, and it must be held accountable for such cruel acts.

Nerd narrative

There's a 67% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Washington establishment, particularly those in the Democratic Party, is starting to sweat as RFK Jr. takes a major step in advancing his independent campaign. Kennedy’s name recognition and populist platform have made him a unique threat. On top of that, with Nicole Shanahan in the fold, he now has a very wealthy running mate who can contribute an unrestricted amount to the campaign. In addition to her wealth, Shanahan has a history of supporting causes that voters care deeply about, and it will be hard for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to match this energy and excitement.

Pro-establishment narrative

While the media attention fixates on Joe Biden and Donald Trump, RFK Jr. remains a relative unknown compared to those two. This, along with his last name, may lead some people to believe that Kennedy is a benign and moderate figure, but this is not the case. For years, RFK Jr. has pushed dangerous, anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and has even been disavowed by members of his own family. Luckily, RFK doesn't stand a reasonable chance of winning, and his pick of Nicole Shanahan will do very little to gather any steam for his campaign. Kennedy will try to play spoiler, but he won't get enough support to even make a meaningful difference in that role.

Nerd narrative

There is a 25% chance that a third-party or independent candidate will win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.