Report: UK Faces Sickness-Related Employment Crisis
According to an analysis by the Resolution Foundation, a British think tank, the UK is in the middle of the longest sustained rise in the number of working-age adults who are economically inactive due to sickness.
The number of people quitting the workforce due to long-term sickness rose from 2.1M in July 2019 to 2.8M in October 2023 — the longest sustained increase in sickness-related inactivity on record.
Right narrative
The UK should be wary about its benefits system, which encourages people not to return to work and claim health-related benefits instead. The extraordinary rise in disability benefits claims has weakened the economy, crippled the exchequer, and caused enormous strains on the NHS.
Left narrative
A benefits crackdown is unlikely to solve the UK's jobless crisis. Only improved mental health and musculoskeletal care infrastructure, shortened NHS waiting lists, and extensive budget measures to boost the labor force can help tackle the country's economic inactivity challenge.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the unemployment rate in the eurozone will be at least 6.3% in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nigeria: Army Rescues Abducted Students
In an operation on Sunday, the Nigerian military rescued students and staff from a school in Kuriga, in the northwestern Kaduna state, who had been kidnapped by a terrorist group earlier this month, just before the ransom payment of 1B naira ($690K) deadline.
The operation in the neighboring state of Zamfara resulted in the release of 137 captives. According to the military spokesperson, 76 female and 61 male hostages were released. The gunmen initially captured 287 staff members and students.
Narrative A
The military's successful rescue operation and the release of hostages are wonderful news. Experts believe the economic crisis is fueling the surge in school attacks and abductions as an increasing number of Nigerians resort to criminal activity as a means of livelihood. Nigeria has pledged to tighten up security and bring all abducted schoolchildren back to their families.
Narrative B
Nigeria's Northwestern Kaduna State has suffered four school abductions in the last four years. The central government does not control its territory, and hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people (IDP) live in government camps under appalling circumstances. It's good news that the military was able to bring these children home. However, there are still many more missing. The government is responsible for ensuring that all children can come back home.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance Nigeria will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Senegal: Ruling Coalition Concedes Defeat
Senegal's ruling coalition candidate Amadou Ba has conceded defeat in the presidential election, calling opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye on Monday as early results trends indicate he clinched an outright majority to win in the first round of voting.
This comes as several contenders had already congratulated Faye on his claimed victory after the initial count. Previously, Ba's campaign stated that opposition celebrations were premature and that a run-off vote would be needed "in the worst case scenario."
Narrative A
That the Senegalese people were allowed to elect an opposition leader who was imprisoned just days before the election is an impressive surprise, especially after all attempts from Sall to cling to power beyond his constitutional term — including postponing the vote. His victory is also a triumph for the country and its democratic system.
Narrative B
Despite the opposition spreading baseless allegations of potential electoral fraud in favor of the ruling coalition, Senegal has demonstrated once again that it remains one of the most stable countries in West Africa. Millions went to the polls peacefully, further indicating the maturity of both the Senegalese people and democracy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 15% chance that Senegal will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Deputy Prime Minister: China Linked to Cyber Attacks
UK Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden in a speech in the House of Commons on Monday accused "Chinese state-affiliated actors" of being responsible for two "malicious" cybersecurity breaches since 2021.
In August 2023, the UK's Electoral Commission revealed that from Aug. 2021 to Oct. 2022 "hostile actors" had accessed the records of nearly 43M voters who registered between 2014 and 2022.
Anti-China narrative
The UK government must push back against China immediately. Beijing's consistent attempts to influence the direction of the UK from the shadows while committing a series of human rights violations domestically can't be tolerated. London's relationship with Beijing must be drastically reimagined with immediate effect.
Pro-China narrative
The UK's baseless allegations against China are without evidence and merely an attempt to politicize the issue of cybersecurity at the behest of Washington. The UK's smear campaign is both illegal and ineffective, and all sanctions will merely provoke a legitimate, tough response from Beijing.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite the threat, the UK has been slow with its meek reaction to Beijing's attacks. The government seems both scared and tentative to do any more than apply weak sanctions to minor individuals connected to Beijing. The government's current response to attempts to undermine British democracy has so far been desperately lacking in teeth.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that if China invades Taiwan before Jan. 1, 2035, the UK will respond with military force, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Sunak Announces Major Initiative for Nuclear Energy, Submarines
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has declared a "national endeavour" for a £763M (US$964M) investment in nuclear energy by 2030, including over £200M ($252M) to secure Barrow as the site for the UK's nuclear submarine building.
The program, which will partner with companies including BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, EDF, and Babcock, is projected to create over 8K career opportunities and fill 40K new jobs by 2030. The Barrow Transformation Fund will also receive a minimum of £20M a year for ten years.
Pro-establishment narrative
The UK is living up to its promises alongside the US and Australia. As China grows increasingly aggressive on the nuclear weapons front, Western military superpowers must stay ahead by developing state-of-the-art nuclear submarines, which is where the Barrow facility steps in with the help of BAE Systems and Rolls Royce. The UK is creating a world-class green energy sector that not only powers economies but also protects them from their nuclear-powered enemies.
Establishment-critical narrative
The UK should be commended for investing in nuclear energy, which is one of the most important renewable sources for combating and mitigating climate change. However, any money spent on nuclear power should be directed into renewable energy rather than armaments. It is not only the safest and best decision, but the Non-Proliferation Treaty of the twentieth century compels nuclear-armed countries not to enhance their nuclear weapon capabilities.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that 8.3% of global primary consumption will be powered by nuclear energy in 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Beaten Suspects Appear in Court as Allegations Traded Over Moscow Attack
As Russia observed a national day of mourning, four of the 11 men held on suspicion of carrying out the Moscow concert hall attack in which at least 137 people were killed were charged on Monday. Two of the men plead guilty to the attacks.
However, the four citizens of Tajikistan appeared to have been beaten, raising questions as to whether they were tortured. Two of the men had black eyes and the face of a third man was badly swollen. A fourth man was brought in on a wheelchair and reportedly drifted in and out of consciousness. They will be held in pre-trial detention until at least May, the court ruled.
Pro-establishment narrative
While Russia may cast doubt on IS responsibility for the attack, the terror group has posted multiple verified videos of the attack. A number of US intelligence officials also said they have seen evidence that showed the group's culpability for what happened. By all reasonable accounts, it's IS who is to blame.
Pro-Russia narrative
While the Kremlin cannot currently comment on IS' alleged culpability at this stage, Pres. Putin has already stated that the suspects were detained on their way to Ukraine. That in itself raises a number of questions that have to be answered. All who helped orchestrate, irrespective of which faction they represent, will be held accountable.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
EU Investigating Google, Apple Under New Digital Markets Act
The European Commission on Monday announced EU regulators will investigate Google, Meta, and Apple to ensure the companies are abiding by the EU's new Digital Markets Act (DMA), which took effect March 7.
Regulators will determine whether Google and Apple use their app stores to prevent competing developers from promoting their apps, and also probe Meta's new ad-free subscriptions and data-based advertising.
Narrative A
The DMA seems like a noble pursuit, but it could wind up making things worse because of the market-manipulation loopholes these companies created in preparation for the law. For example, Apple has scrapped its 30% revenue fee on competing developers, replacing it with a cent fee for apps with over a million downloads — leaving the competition better off sticking with the original fee.
Narrative B
Big Tech's legal loopholes don't negate the historic nature of the DMA. Europeans now have a clearer understanding of their app options, not to mention the new ability to prevent companies from tracking their data. As for loopholes like Apple's cent rule, the commission will undoubtedly probe this move and strike it down if it's found to be in violation of the law.
Nerd narrative
There's an 80% chance that Apple will allow side-loading or other app stores on its iPhones in the European Union before Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Boeing CEO Resigns as Part of Leadership Shakeup
Boeing Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Dave Calhoun on Monday announced his resignation effective at the end of the year, and the aerospace manufacturer announced several other changes to its leadership.
The firm faces ongoing scrutiny from regulators and customers in light of the January mid-cabin blowout of a door plug on a Boeing 737 Max 9 Alaska Airlines flight.
Narrative A
Calls for change at Boeing have been heard and things are going to change under new leaders. The Alaska Airlines incident was a watershed moment for turning things around, and the company will emerge from this situation stronger than ever with quality and safety first and foremost in everyone's minds. Customers and passengers can rest assured Boeing will do better moving forward.
Narrative B
Changing people on the company's leadership chart won't change things at Boeing until it rethinks the way it does business. For too long ownership has valued profits and cost-cutting over safety. Too many of the people in power come from the financial industry. Fundamental changes — not changes in leadership — must be made to secure the company's future and make flying in Boeing planes safer.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the price of Boeing stock at market close March 29, 2024 will be at lease $189 per share, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Controversy Continues Over NBC Hiring of Ronna McDaniel
NBC might face an employee boycott after it hired former Republican National Committee (RNC) chair Ronna McDaniel as an on-air political analyst, causing backlash at the network.
McDaniel served as head of the RNC for the past seven years, pushing former Pres. Donald Trump's claims that the 2020 presidential election was rigged and even urging two Wayne County, Mich., officials not to certify the county's election results.
Left narrative
McDaniel's lies while serving as RNC chair give her no credibility. And her stint at the RNC was marked by failures, including the 2022 midterm elections. She brings little value to NBC viewership and even her fair share of criticism from MAGA viewers. If NBC wants to bring in an alternative voice, it could do much better than someone furthering institutional, anti-democratic rhetoric.
Right narrative
In a democracy, it's important to represent various points of view, especially on national news networks. It's not surprising that liberal voices at NBC are droning their intolerance for McDaniel, but hopefully, the news executives will stand up to the resistance and allow McDaniel to provide her side of the news events that will be affecting the nation.
Cynical narrative
There are likely financial reasons behind this deal as McDaniel's hiring is drawing fire from both the MAGA right and the left. Whether this involves potential corporate mergers or dynamics between the political operatives and media outlets is unclear, but McDaniel shows that the cross-pollination between the pundits and politics is way too much.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that, in the 2024 US Presidential election, any state will officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Has 10 Days to Pay Lowered Bond
Former Pres. Donald Trump on Monday had his $464M bond owed to the state of New York in its fraud case against him lowered to $175M in a decision by an appellate court. The decision comes just as a 30-day grace period was set to expire and gives Trump 10 more days to post bond.
Before the ruling by a panel of state Appellate Division judges — all appointed by Democratic governors — Trump was on the hook for a $454M bond plus additional interest of more than $111K per day.
Pro-Trump narrative
Thankfully these developments show that some semblance of justice remains in the US. The $464M bond was an extreme expression of the far-left's weaponization of the courts in the aftermath of the politically motivated judgment. Trump is on his way to defeating the swamp.
Anti-Trump narrative
Trump has received an undeserved lifeline, as James must now wait an additional 10 days before she can start seizing Trump's assets. But, this decision doesn't let Trump off the hook and he will still be liable to pay the full $460M-plus when he loses his unreasonable and far-fetched appeal.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Trump will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UNSC Votes in Favor of Gaza Cease-fire, US Abstains
The UN Security Council (UNSC) passed a resolution on Monday calling for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza and the immediate and unconditional release of all Israeli hostages. US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said there was no "shift in our policy," adding that the US backed a cease-fire but did not vote in favor of the resolution because the text did not condemn Hamas.
Seemingly in response to the US abstention, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he would not send an Israeli delegation to Washington to discuss alternatives to a major push into Rafah. Kirby said the US was "disappointed" by Netanyahu's decision.
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas' military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always support Israel in maintaining its security. However, Netanyahu is going too far with the war in Gaza, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises and compromise as needed so that another extended truce can take effect, which will hopefully lead to a more permanent resolution to this conflict. Security can only come through peace.
Pro-Israel narrative
Allowing the UNSC to pass such an outrageous resolution demonstrates that the Biden admin. no longer believes that supporting Israel is worth the political capital. Caving to pro-Hamas fanatics, Biden is willing to throw Israelis under the bus to try and salvage his political career. The world has forgotten the atrocities Hamas committed on Oct. 7 and Israel's moral duty to protect its citizens. This resolution only serves to support Hamas' political narrative.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Though the Biden admin. may produce crocodile tears on command over the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, in reality, US military support for Israel is the primary reason the war has lasted this long. Israel would simply not be able to maintain a war of this magnitude for such a long period of time without overwhelming US intervention, yet Biden behaves as if it is Israel that calls the shots. Palestinians are starving to death in a man-made famine, and all the US can do is express "disappointment" and abstain on watered-down UNSC resolutions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 67% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.