Pro-establishment narrative

As the far-right Milei has devalued the peso and cut subsidies for essential services, the average Argentine citizen is paying the price for his fiscal adjustment program. Poverty has reached an all-time high in the country, the purchasing power of wage workers has fallen by roughly 14%, and there's a recession on the horizon.

Establishment-critical narrative

Inflation has fallen in Argentina month after month since the libertarian economist-turned-president took office and implemented his shock therapy to revive his country's economy, which has long suffered from hyperinflation and rising poverty. Milei's government has posted the first monthly budget surpluses in years and is making remarkable inroads toward fixing the Argentinian economy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that Argentina will fully dollarize its economy before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

This is the first time in independent India's history that a sitting chief minister has faced such coercive action. This is part of the BJP's systemic effort to pull the rug from under the Indian opposition weeks before the national polls.

Right narrative

The BJP is walking the talk when it comes to rooting out corruption from India, especially from the higher echelons of power. Kejriwal's arrest shows that, no matter how big the leader, India's agencies will move against the accused in their mission.

Nerd narrative

There's a 98% chance that the right-wing incumbent BJP will win the 2024 national election in India, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While the US under the Biden administration continues to be Ukraine's closest supporter, what Ukraine must understand is that oil prices have a major impact on US elections, and striking Russia's supplies could dramatically change global costs — even despite the sanctions. Having Biden lose the 2024 election over the cost of gas won't help Ukraine achieve its war aims.

Pro-Russia narrative

Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and thinking they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. The energy infrastructure targets are directly tied to Ukraine's armed forces and command and control. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.

Nerd narrative

There is a 49% chance that Joe Biden will be re-elected President of the United States in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This is the latest example of law enforcement's longstanding culture of discrimination in Mississippi and throughout the US. These officers should have been fired long ago, but their boss, allowed it to go on. While these individual officers were rightly convicted and sentenced, those at the top should be held accountable for the role they played by turning a blind eye to racism and violence.

Narrative B

Everyone agrees these officers' crimes were horrific, which is why they're going to jail for a long time. But their acts weren't necessarily racist alone. Currently, the country is dealing with a subsection of law enforcement that's over-aggressive and victimizes people of all races — giving law enforcement as a profession a bad name. This is a broadly systemic issue that must be addressed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that a large American city will fully abolish its police department by Jan. 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This outstanding development opens a new frontier in medicine and demonstrates the potential of genome engineering to change the lives of millions of patients facing acute organ shortages worldwide. In addition, if human-compatible kidneys from gene-edited animals can be successfully transplanted on a large scale, dialysis will become obsolete. While there's a long way to go, the dream of xenotransplantation finally seems within reach, which is a promising sign.

Narrative B

While xenotransplantation could make the organs more compatible and less likely to be rejected by the human immune system, it would lead to greater animal exploitation and the spillover of animal viruses to humans. Pigs are sentient creatures who feel fear and pain and shouldn't be treated as a source of spare parts. Researchers need to focus on cleaning up the organ donation system — including making organ donation opt-out — and leave the animals alone.

Nerd narrative

There's a 19% chance that lab-grown organs will be successfully used for human transplant by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While the US' resolution was unsuccessful, the draft highlighted a key shift in American foreign policy direction. Although the language used within the text was certainly unorthodox, its passing would've irrespectively placed further pressure on Israel. The US has joined the international community in placing pressure on finding the end to the current conflict in Gaza.

Establishment-critical narrative

Half a year on from the Gaza catastrophe encouraged by Washington, the US resolution has been met with international criticism and makes a mockery of the definition of "immediate." It's likely, despite the outward change in rhetoric, that America's resolution was nothing more than a superficial attempt to gain leverage in negotiations aimed at maximizing its hegemony through its proxy state Israel.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Israel will lift the blockade on electricity, food, gasoline, and medicine in Gaza by June 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

It was only a matter of time before Owens parted ways with Daily Wire. Eventually, every media outlet has a limit to how much backlash to controversial statements it can take. She probably should've been ousted after her numerous racist and xenophobic comments, and her recent antisemitic rhetoric was the final straw.

Narrative B

The Daily Wire claims to be a bastion for free speech, but clearly, it's not above regulating speech when it conflicts with the opinions of its other employees. Owens has always been against US involvement in foreign wars and her denunciation of US involvement in the conflict in Gaza fits that pattern. Her separation from the outlet was done in bad faith.

Republican narrative

While many on the right have correctly criticized the $1.2T funding bill, removing voting to vacate Mike Johnson is not the solution. With a razor-thin majority in the House, the GOP needed to pass something to ensure the government was funded and the party didn't fall apart. After seeing the chaos that followed Rep. Matt Gaetz's motion to remove Kevin McCarthy, the party cannot afford more turmoil ahead of an already uphill battle in the 2024 election.

Conservative narrative

Mike Johnson has already abandoned his constituents to work alongside the Democrats, so what's the point in worrying about how this motion could impact future House leadership? The $1.2T bill, which Americans on both sides were against, proves Johnson doesn't care about representing the will of the people. Removing a problematic politician from power isn't what's hurting the country — his being in power is.

Nerd narrative

There's a 45% chance that Republicans will win control of the House in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

Pres. Trump is the ultimate businessman and one of the most resourceful people in the world, and his merger deal for Truth Social is a massive counterpunch against Letitia James’ illegitimate efforts to seize his assets. Trump is set to make billions of dollars, and he will have all the resources he needs to fight back against malicious Democrats and radical left who are desperate to take him down. Trump's millions of devoted supporters are behind him and will only fuel his businesses' growth.

Anti-Trump narrative

Headlines may make it seem like Trump is set to become $3B richer overnight, but the facts are less kind to the embattled politician who will struggle to pay his $464M bond. Even if pro-Trump sympathizers on the Trump Media board allow him to sell his shares, he won't be able to post $464M that he owes New York, and Letitia James won't let him off the hook. Regardless, Truth Social has been an utter failure that's been bleeding money, and just like Trump's other failed businesses, his media experiment will fall flat on its face.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Donald Trump’s net worth will be greater than $2.42B in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The public should leave the Princess and her family alone, especially politicians. Everyone, including the Royal Family, has a right to privacy, particularly when it comes to serious health issues that demand compassion. Abdominal surgeries and cancer treatment are not trivial things to be gossiped about, so Buckingham Palace should continue doing whatever it feels best for the family.

Narrative B

While personal health issues should be reported on respectfully, the Royal Family needs to take responsibility for how it curates its lives to the public. Posting edited images and keeping the public in the dark only makes rumors spread faster. William and Kate have long been successful in portraying themselves authentically and need to maintain this going forward.

Nerd narrative

There's a 14% chance that King Charles III will abdicate the throne before September 9, 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.