Pro-establishment narrative

Assange did not innocently receive information and then publish it — he encouraged a US intelligence officer to steal classified material for him to broadcast to the world. Not only that, but the material he released included the names of people in war zones, effectively putting their lives in danger. As would be the case for any other alleged spy, the government, through the collection of evidence, has found that Assange blatantly put American security at risk.

Establishment-critical narrative

Whether Assange is extradited and prosecuted or given a plea deal, the fact of the matter is that the US government has not only tried to arrest him but also kill him throughout this entire process. It's now known that the CIA in 2017 drew up a plan to murder Assange at the Ecuadorian Embassy. When that failed, they went to plan b, which was to let his health deteriorate in a UK prison. Without ever using American handcuffs, the US government has destroyed the physical and mental health of a heroic journalist.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance Julian Assange will not be extradited to the US after Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This is the latest reminder that Beijing is serious about annexing Taiwan by military force if necessary. Furthermore, the deepening ties between China and the authoritarian regimes in the region are clear evidence that developments in Europe and the Indo-Pacific are increasingly intertwined. To protect the rules-based international order, the US and its allies must prepare militarily for this rising threat.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US alarmism is baseless and only serves to maintain the Chinese threat narrative and distract from America's hostile foreign policy and its military build-up in Taiwan. Washington's militaristic zero-sum mentality also extends to countries that pose no threat to the world but rattle Washington's crumbling hegemony. The US must abandon its irrational path, adhere to the one-China principle, and stop meddling in China's internal affairs.

Nerd narrative

There's a 61% chance that the US will react with military force if China invades Taiwan before Jan. 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Biden is successfully striking a balance between giving hybrid vehicles a bigger opportunity and balancing climate goals with industrial capabilities and consumer choice. Although these standards are less stringent than the ones originally proposed, they offer flexibility and acknowledge the challenges automakers face.

Republican narrative

In attempting to end the era of gas-powered cars, Biden is willing to burden middle-class consumers and damage the US auto industry by subsidizing EVs for those wealthy enough to afford them. Moreover, there are still unanswered questions about the environmental impact of battery production and electricity generation. This is a bad policy.

Progressive narrative

These new rules are inadequate to tackle the climate crisis. They're too gradual and there are loopholes that favor automakers. Delaying steep EV sales growth until after 2030 is a mistake amid urgent climate concerns and smells like concessions made to the auto industry and organized labor, which values jobs and profits over protecting the environment.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that 31% of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The EU is prepared to continue to keep pressure on Russia and hold the Kremlin accountable for its illegal acts of aggression and the massive suffering and damage it has inflicted. These funds are needed to protect the future of Ukraine and if we deprive them of the weapons they need, Putin and Russia won't stop there.

Pro-Russia narrative

This is banditry and theft — pure and simple. The proposed step of using revenue from Russia's frozen assets to arm Ukraine in the conflict is yet another example of how the EU is degrading its own standards and violating its commitments to international law.

Nerd narrative

There's a 27% chance that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

The recent scandals among a few Socialists and Democrats have unfortunately stained the reputation of Portugal's moderate faction. While this has given Chega historic growth in parliamentary seats, the majority of the country is still eager to keep the far-right out of power. With a fresh face leading the centrist coalition, the longstanding Socialist party and its Democratic counterparts have an opportunity to regain public trust and maintain ties with the EU — an integral part of the country's economy that Chega hopes to destroy.

Right narrative

Portugal's mainstream may have control for a little longer, but the future is with Chega. Chega's support jumped from 7% to 18%, largely thanks to young voters, one-third of whom have left the country due to dire economic prospects. Portugal's failed economic redistribution policies have only remained thanks to billions in subsidies from Brussels. Currently, young people can only obtain low-wage jobs in the tourism sector, so unless the Socialists decide to stop being socialist, Chega's popularity will only grow.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that any Member State will leave the Eurozone before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Nations of varying demographics and economic ranks will not be able to avoid the consequences if these trends are allowed to continue. Lower-income countries must offer better access to contraceptives and female education, and wealthier nations must prioritize policies that support a robust social security system and open immigration to maintain population size and economic growth. Otherwise, the world will be in deep trouble.

Narrative B

Lower fertility rates don't pose an existential threat to the planet because a shrinking population could alleviate strain on global resources and reduce carbon emissions. These studies tend to over sensationalize the socio-economic consequences of slow fertility rates, which can lead to more restrictions on women's rights to contraception and to pursue education and work over having a family. There's no fertility crisis just yet.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that it would take at least 1.38K years to recover the population above 1B again if the human population declines to fewer than 100M, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

After failing to completely take over OpenAI, Microsoft has now used its financial might to gut Inflection AI in an attempt to conquer the generative AI world. Time will tell if the tech behemoth is a positive actor looking to responsibly develop advanced AI technologies or if it will act as a monopoly with little regard for the effects on the world.

Narrative B

Microsoft is the leader in the generative AI race, and this move will help keep the company out in front. With Suleyman on board, there's no looking back. His well-publicized concerns about AI safety will make sure Microsoft accelerates the development of the technology responsibly.

Nerd narrative

There's a 90% chance that the US will have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The international community has rightly aligned itself with the US on this issue on behalf of a truly rules-based order. After months of negotiations and collaborative edits, this first-of-its-kind resolution not only calls for security and privacy measures but also to use AI as a means of enhancing wealth, education, healthcare, and environmental sustainability around the world.

Establishment-critical narrative

International AI resolutions won't mean much until governments agree not to use this technology for military purposes. Powerful governments like the US have already begun creating autonomous weapons, efforts that place everyone in grave danger. If the UN wants to show good faith to the world, it should restrict the use of autonomous weapons and prohibit the integration of this software into nuclear bombs.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that, if there's an AI catastrophe this century, it will happen by Dec. 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

For nearly two decades, Reddit has been home to millions of people seeking open information and discussion about any and all topics imaginable. However, all of that could change as Reddit goes public and faces the threat of becoming like all other corporatized social media companies. While there's a need for some content moderation, it's easy to envision Reddit overloading on censorship to appease shareholders and regulators. If that happens, the beloved platform will become no different from its over-sanitized competitors.

Narrative B

Reddit has reached a new status as a company with its IPO, as it goes from a platform of misinformation and vulgarity to a multibillion-dollar tech giant. However, Reddit finally decided to clean up its website and purge forums of overt racism and misogyny, and the results speak for themselves. By moderating inappropriate and hateful content, Reddit was able to attract more users and — more importantly — investors. Reddit's success shows the importance of content moderation, and more companies should follow suit.

Pro-establishment narrative

It takes only an Apple device and another from a competitor to verify that all allegations in this lawsuit are true. While Apple has claimed that these limitations are in place to protect consumers' privacy and security, the company actually makes chat messages less secure and functional. Additionally, consumers aren't allowed to download innovative apps — including games and payment services. This lawsuit is crucial to better regulating Big Tech.

Establishment-critical narrative

Apple and other big techs are indeed dominant in some very specific ecosystems for now, but it's highly unlikely that this situation will hold forever. The explanation for this spate of populist, bipartisan antitrust actions relies not on actual monopoly concerns, but rather on political agendas to expand control over American businesses. If Apple does harm its consumers, it's up to them — not the government — to say.

Nerd narrative

There's a 48% chance that Apple will allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones in the US before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.