Right narrative

This bill was obviously created to punish working-class people with less power than Rowling. So, while Rowling may be safe from veritable thought police, that doesn't mean regular people will be able to call a man a man and a woman a woman. This law protects the delusional at the expense of free thinking, and its vague nature seems to have been written so that, sooner or later, both women and men could face charges.

Left narrative

Nothing in this bill states that what Rowling said, or even misgendering more generally, would be a crime. Not only will the police face a high bar when it comes to who violates the law, but the law itself also protects free speech surrounding these exact topics. Just because hateful rhetoric is reported and investigated doesn't mean that the police will actually handcuff people for speaking their minds.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5.7% chance that Scotland will leave the United Kingdom before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This is an outlandish threat that shouldn't deter Germany from banning the import of hunting trophies. The unethical organizers of these hunting trips are the only ones who benefit from these activities, not the poor local residents or even the hunting authorities. Botswana shouldn't do anything to jeopardize its conservation achievements and should instead work with Germany on ways to protect its biodiversity.

Narrative B

His offer may sound bizarre, but it has a serious background, so Masisi's intentions are admirable. An ill-considered import ban would penalize countries like Botswana and undermine their immense wildlife conservation efforts. The so-called "developed" countries should first worry about their own fauna, abandon their neo-colonial attitude, and take local concerns seriously.

Nerd narrative

There's a 53% chance that space-based technologies will facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Pres. Biden made good use of his conversation with Xi as he raised several concerns over worrying international developments and defended the US. His administration is currently doing all it can to ensure peaceful and stable relations with Beijing — and even push for limited cooperation — as competition between the two powers increases.

Republican narrative

Another interaction with Xi, another show of weakness. Joe Biden has essentially done the same thing over and over again during his tenure, raising concerns to Beijing over a plethora of issues but not taking any step — either words or actions — to force China to halt its provocations.

Pro-China narrative

While this phone call is certainly a reassurance that tensions remain managed, the US continues to say one thing while doing another. There is handsome potential for both nations to thrive in the same global order but this will only occur if America focuses on actions rather than words, and respects its commitments to measures such as the One-China policy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance of a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Since Taiwan lies on a tectonic boundary between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate, the island is regularly jolted by earthquakes. However, the fact that Wednesday's powerful quake was felt in Shanghai, nearly 900 km (590 mi.) away, yet caused no significant damage or casualty shows that Taiwan's natural disaster response is world-class.

Narrative B

Taiwan may have a world-class seismological network, but its early warning system is still ancient, or Wednesday's massive earthquake wouldn't have taken aback the island. The quake will have a significant economic impact, particularly on Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing sector, which provides nearly 90% of the world's most advanced microchips.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 74.8K people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 to 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This was an appalling incident, and the strike on an aid convoy was only one in a string of incidents that has made this conflict the deadliest on record for aid workers. The US has consistently said that while it stands by Israel, it must do more to protect civilians from harm, and ensure the safe passage of humanitarian aid.

Establishment-critical narrative

This was another appalling Israeli attack on civilians and aid workers in what is an ongoing genocide. According to the World Central Kitchen, the aid convoy fully coordinated its movements with the IDF. This, combined with the fact that WCK is closely linked to British and US intelligence, raises more questions than it answers.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israeli is extremely sorry for this incident. It came at night, and in the fog of war, there was a case of misidentification that led to the airstrikes. Nonetheless, this shouldn't have happened. Israel is at war with Hamas, not the Palestinians in Gaza or the civilians distributing aid.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that the US will militarily intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

History shows that it's a reflex for the former president to sue anyone who works for or with him in any endeavor. So it's no surprise that even after taking Trump Media public and seeing a tremendous increase in his personal wealth, Trump has decided to sue two men who helped him get the company off the ground. This is quintessential Trump behavior.

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump had little choice but to sue Moss and Litinsky. They were granted a golden opportunity to amass great wealth alongside one of the most recognizable people in the world, and they fumbled it with terrible hirings and decisions that cost the company a great amount of its value. These two riders of Trump's coattails should be held accountable for their failures.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Trump's net worth will be at least $2.54B on Dec. 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Ukraine is facing several issues surrounding manpower, among which is certainly a need for new conscripts. The government could also work to rotate its frontline troops — most of whom have not had a break in two years — to the back and replace them with the hundreds of thousands of others who have yet to face the frontline.

Pro-Russia narrative

Zelenskyy is about to pull an even younger generation of Ukrainians onto the battlefield despite his past efforts failing to defeat Russian forces. As he lowers the conscription age, he's citing the lie that Russia intends to mobilize another 300K soldiers by June as a reason to rebuild his forces. Ukraine couldn't win with its original force and will continue to lose after this latest move.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict by April 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This news is nothing to panic about. Tesla has sold more vehicles in the first quarter than its biggest competitor — Chinese carmaker BYD — regaining its position as the world's leading seller of EVs. Musk has a strategy and is likely to continue to outperform all other EV manufacturers.

Narrative B

Tesla is facing multiple problems, including increased competition. The root cause of Tesla's problems could be Elon Musk, as many observers believe the company would be better off if he stepped down as chief executive officer and focused solely on innovation. Musk's controversial social media posts and his association with right-wing politics may be negatively affecting sales.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Tesla will become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before Jan. 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Republicans have gone off the rails. This is a case of them spreading debunked conspiracy theories and passing a law to ban something that's non-existent. The conspiracy theories aside, this bill focuses on geoengineering, which is an undefined collection of hypothetical practices that have never been tested. This is a waste of time and resources.

Republican narrative

Democrats and their media allies want to smear Republicans over this bill, but there's no mention of "chemtrails" and it in fact deals with geoengineering — a practice the government released a report about last year. Some media pundits are changing their tune about geoengineering and Republicans will continue to fight the lies and protect their constituents.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that a geoengineering act of Congress will become US federal law by the end of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

With this filing, Smith dismantled any notion Trump could be protected by the PRA, and he's schooling Cannon on how to apply the law in this case. The PRA doesn’t apply to a president who was out of office for more than a year, and Smith knows this is just Trump's way of stalling. If Cannon doesn’t adhere to established legal principles, Smith will have no choice but to appeal.

Pro-Trump narrative

Smith is obviously growing frustrated because his case is falling apart, so he's taking out his anger on Cannon. In his haste to prosecute Trump, Smith can't handle the fact that the judge wants to make sure the jury is provided everything it needs to reach a proper decision. Smith may want to get this case to trial before the November election, but Cannon knows there are steps that need to be taken to ensure proper justice.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Trump’s classified documents trial will begin by June 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.