Pro-establishment narrative

Israel's reported response to Iran's unacceptable strike on Saturday was more limited than many anticipated, but the message to Tehran was obvious — Jerusalem can breach Iran's air defenses and attack its nuclear sites whenever it wants. Thursday's operation demonstrates that both sides are capable of causing significant harm to the other, and we may be witnessing the beginning of a return to deterrence and more prudent geopolitical calculation.

Establishment-critical narrative

Iran's military action against Israel on April 14 was based on Article 51 of the UN Charter, which guarantees the legitimate right to self-defense, and was in reaction to Israel's deadly attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Israel blatantly violated international law when it struck Iran on Thursday. However, due to its restricted scope, it does not require an immediate response. It's not in Iran's interest to further escalate the conflict and it's Tehran who is modeling a "rules-based order" rather than Israel and its Western allies.

Nerd narrative

There is a 40% chance Iran will recognize Israel before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Palestinian statehood can only be achieved through direct Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Apart from that, the Palestinian Authority failed to implement the reforms necessary for the US not to veto. Meanwhile, Gaza — an essential part of a possible Palestinian state — is ruled by the Hamas terror group. Peaceful coexistence cannot be dictated, and as long as Palestinian leaders support Hamas and refuse to recognize Israel's right to exist, there will be no Palestinian state.

Establishment-critical narrative

That the US was the only UNSC member to veto the draft once again exposes its alleged full support for a two-state solution as empty talk. Yet it's the US and the UK that are primarily responsible for the Middle East's mess through their century of interference and imperialism. Not only do two-thirds of UN members already recognize the state of Palestine, but granting it UN membership and a two-state solution is the only path to peace for both sides.

Nerd narrative

There is a 34% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Murrell's charges are yet another blow to the reputation and legacy of the SNP. Having pitched himself as Sturgeon's natural heir, First Minister Humza Yousaf can now only focus on damage limitation, as growing accusations of corruption cast a bleak shadow over his party. The SNP cannot be viewed as anything other than a sinking ship as the UK edges towards its next general election.

Narrative B

While the charges against Murrell and the accusations against Sturgeon are shocking, the former chief executive of the SNP remains innocent until he is found guilty in a court of law. Nothing has yet been proven, and while accusations concerning the couple's professional integrity certainly need answering, conclusions cannot be drawn until the investigation is a closed case.

Nerd narrative

There is a 68% chance that there will be legal consequences for Peter Murrell's involvement in the Scottish National Party's financial irregularities in the next five years, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

It's only thanks to the diligent work of Polish, Ukrainian, and German intelligence officials that these heinous and unacceptable Russian plots were discovered. Nonetheless, these are grave escalations by Russia and they are utmostly condemned.

Pro-Russia narrative

If Russia wanted to assassinate Zelenskyy, why not do it on the dozens of occasions he takes pictures with troops on the frontlines in Ukraine? If Russia's enemies believe the country is foolish enough to stage such an attack to achieve its wider military aims, those enemies have bad news coming.

Nerd narrative

There's a 24% chance that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Students have a right to free speech on college campuses, but they don't have a right to disrupt learning on campus or violate their schools' policies without consequences. This is not a case of Columbia censoring or unfairly targeting students with pro-Palestinian views, but rather a situation where students are being forced to deal with the consequences of their actions for violating a long list of school rules and policies and continuing their unauthorized protests even after they were warned that they were facing arrest and suspension.

Narrative B

Suspending students for participating in a peaceful protest is unfair and a violation of academic freedoms. These students, and thousands more across the country are determined to be on the right side of history and protest against the genocide occurring in Gaza. The Apartheid Divest coalition and other students involved with Thursday's protest will not be intimidated and will stand firm until their demands for the school to divest from Israel are met. It's very likely that more protests will be held in solidarity with those who have been wronged by Columbia.

Nerd narrative

There's a 68% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Ofcom study underscores the need to ban children as young as five from accessing social media or owning smartphones and tablets, as the practice increases their incidence of mental illness. The UK government must step up and introduce legal measures, including drawing up a safety code of practice, to ensure young children are protected from sexual predators, cyberbullying, and illegal content online.

Establishment-critical narrative

The fight against smartphones is neither necessary nor practical. Banning children from buying smartphones wouldn't stop parents from giving their offspring a handset. Moreover, with the advent of artificial intelligence, smartphones will become more enmeshed in every aspect of youngsters' lives. Instead of curtailing their digital rights, children must be made aware of the dangers of technology and taught how to use it safely.

Nerd narrative

There's a 65% chance that more than 50% of US adults will own a personal augmented reality device by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

As Meta has begun to launch its Llama powered chatbot across apps, users will now be able to ask for restaurant recommendations and access real-time information without having to bounce to a separate page. Additionally, high-quality generated images — and gifs — will be available for free, featuring a watermark label to prevent deep fakes.

Narrative B

Given that Meta's social media platforms have long been fertile ground for misinformation and extremist content, the introduction of a chatbot can only aggravate that issue due to its tendency for "hallucinations" and false responses. It's not because a technology is new that its potential harm has to be accepted.

Nerd narrative

There's a 53% chance that a member of the United States Congress will introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Mike Johnson is finally ignoring this small group of dissident Republicans to pass legislation that most lawmakers and their constituents want. This group began their case by asking for reasonable procedural changes to keep the speaker from having too much power, but now they're using the same tyranny-of-the-minority tactics to block America from defending its allies against terrorists and dictators. The country will now get its long-desired security legislation.

Establishment-critical narrative

There are no political parties in America — just a corrupt group of warmongering neocons with neoliberal ideology obsessed with creating wars via unaffordable legislation. Not only will this bill push US debt closer to the estimated $140 trillion by 2054, but it's also absolutely unnecessary. Even if they wanted to — and they don't — Russia, China, and Iran combined couldn't make a dent in NATO's military capacity. The Republican Party should be dissolved and replaced with a Freedom and Peace Party.

Nerd narrative

There is a 48% chance that Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Progressive narrative

Deporting Haitian asylum seekers back to a country that is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis is nothing short of a moral blithe on the Biden administration and the US as a whole. Instead of showing empathy to people fleeing a country that has been hijacked by gangs, the US is callously sending them back to a place where they face persecution and a humanitarian catastrophe. Human rights must come before politics, and the Biden administration must end all deportations to Haiti.

Conservative narrative

The Biden administration and left-wing nonprofits have been pushing a disastrous foreign policy agenda that has destabilized Haiti. Now the radical left is inviting thousands, if not millions, of illegal migrants into the US and other countries. The situation in Haiti is a tragedy that merits our sympathy, but the US cannot welcome an unending wave of Haitian migrants, especially when our Southern Border is being overrun by millions every year.

Nerd narrative

There is a 59% chance that Haiti will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

It is clear that anyone who is willing to self-immolate has a serious and tragic mental illness, and it appears that the man who lit himself on fire outside of Trump's trial had succumbed to dangerous conspiracy theories as shown by his Substack post. This is a tragedy spotlighting the need to provide mental health support across society.

Narrative B

This was a tragic and desperate act of political protest. Very few are willing, or perhaps allowed, to get to the bottom of the issues that have plagued the global order for decades. Harm to oneself or to others is never acceptable, but this doesn't take away from the deep concerns many people have about our deteriorating human condition.