Pro-Trump narrative

There's a great deal of intrigue surrounding the upcoming presidential debate thanks to former President Trump. In addition to rumored VP candidates like Tim Scott and JD Vance, the media has also been buzzing with potential options who have more bipartisan cross-over appeal and could lean into the niche Nikki Haley carved during the primary. Trump has made a bold decision in his mind, and American voters can look forward to exciting news with the debate and GOP convention just around the corner.

Anti-Trump narrative

After Mike Pence chose loyalty to the Constitution over Trump's authoritarianism in 2020, Donald Trump will be looking for someone who won't fight his autocratic tendencies. Trump's vice presidential candidate will likely be someone who dangerously downplayed the Jan. 6 insurrection and has America First impulses. It's looking likely that whoever the former president picks will be unwelcome news for the American public.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that Doug Burgum will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Iran narrative

The agreement marks a significant step in mending strained bilateral ties by expressing both countries' commitment to dialog and reconciliation. Tehran believes that normalizing diplomatic relations and enhancing mutual understanding is the only way to resolve various issues that have caused friction in the past. Postponing the restoration of diplomatic ties would be counterproductive, and Bahrain should accept Iran's move to promote regional stability and its national security interests.

Anti-Iran narrative

The signs may point towards a detente, but Bahrain should remain skeptical. Not only does Iran constantly interfere in Bahrain's domestic affairs, but Tehran is also sheltering several wanted Bahraini opposition figures. In addition, Iran links the resumption of bilateral ties to the opposition's return to Bahrain and the release of suspicious Shiite prisoners. The Gulf kingdom should think twice about whether the restoration of relations with the Iranian regime is worth the price.

Establishment-critical narrative

The fact that Russia brokered the Iran-Bahrain warming is the latest proof of Russia's increasing diplomatic weight in the region. While the West used to dominate the Middle East, sowing chaos and discord, Moscow is committed to peace and stability — as evidenced by its efforts to end the Gaza war. The looming reconciliation between Bahrain and Iran will further enhance Moscow's regional prestige at the West's expense.

Nerd narrative

There's a 73% chance that Iran will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While prosecutors may recommend charges, Boeing didn't violate the 2021 agreement. Moreover, it has signed contracts with the US Department of Defense, and any conviction could jeopardize those deals. It's much more likely that the DOJ will give Boeing another deal with stricter terms.

Establishment-critical narrative

It looks like Boeing will finally face criminal prosecution for the two plane crashes that killed 346 people. After the DOJ found in May that Boeing had violated the terms of the 2021 settlement, not only are the original charges on the table again, but the DOJ may also introduce new ones. Boeing has gotten away with this for too long, and it's time the company is held guilty of its crimes.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Boeing will release a new midsize aircraft, likely called the 797, into commercial service before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Lithium batteries, common in many devices today, pose significant fire risks and the potential for injuries, fatalities, and disruption if proper safety measures aren't taken. Improper disposal can lead to contamination and severe hazards. Awareness and safe handling are crucial to preventing tragedies like the one South Korea has endured.

Narrative B

This tragedy must not set off another wave of scaremongering about lithium batteries. While they pose fire risks if improperly handled, shunning them or the end products that use them would be misguided. Misinformed claims often overlook the fact that lithium batteries are ubiquitous and generally safe. Instead, more refined occupational health and safety solutions should be found without resorting to a fear-driven hampering of their evolution.

Nerd narrative

There's a 65% chance that the lithium-ion battery recycling market will surpass $20B before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Neurostimulation through implants is an exciting new avenue for the treatment of epilepsy and a host of other neurological and mental conditions. By targeting areas of the brain associated with certain ailments, researchers have seen that sending electrical impulses can lessen a whole host of symptoms. This is an exciting new field that warrants much further study.

Narrative B

While this is a promising development, there is growing concern about the stability of the biomedical industry in these experimental endeavors. One woman involved in a study like this one needed to get an epilepsy implant removed after the company that built it went bankrupt, which goes to show that these breakthroughs are only step one. We need to ensure that there is enough backing and support to keep these life-saving innovations viable.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that human brain emulation will be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

As Moscow puts all its resources toward invading Ukraine, it's left its domestic security at risk. While the Kremlin may try to blame this attack on Ukraine, all it's really doing is exposing its fracturing society and the limits to its governing power. Russia should prioritize the safety of its people instead of invading foreign countries.

Establishment-critical narrative

It wouldn't be surprising if US and NATO-backed forces had a small degree of separation from these attacks in Dagestan. Dating back to the Chechen wars, agencies like the CIA have sought to divide the Muslim and non-Muslim sections of Russia to destabilize the country. This attack could be a revival of that decades-old tactic.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Russia narrative

This is an indefensible terror attack on civilians coming as the Orthodox Church celebrates one of its most important holidays. There is no doubt that America helped perpetrate this vicious attack and Russia's response is coming.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

While it is unfortunate this attack occurred on a religious holiday, attacks like this take place daily in Ukraine. Just the same day as the attack on Crimea, a Russian attack on Kharkiv killed three civilians and injured 56 more.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Democrats sadly leverage shooting incidents for political purposes when it comes to tightening gun restrictions. But most of their proposed new gun laws wouldn't do anything to stop these tragedies. Instead, they'd limit law-abiding citizens' Second Amendment rights, which should never be infringed. Democrat talking points conveniently ignore the number of times citizens need firearms for self-defense.

Democratic narrative

Republicans at every turn continue to block legislation that would make Americans safer. At minimum Democrats want to restore the assault weapons ban that effectively reduced these tragedies before Republicans allowed the law to expire. There's no such thing as an uninfringed right to possess firearms, as proven by the numerous laws Americans accept in the name of public safety.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.41 small firearms per capita in the US in 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

It's crucial that SCOTUS not only hear this case but also step in to protect the rights of these young people and their families. Republicans constantly boast about being in favor of parents' rights, yet the Tennessee law and others like it are prohibiting effective treatments that these vulnerable youth, their parents, and their doctors deem necessary. That's infringing on freedom, not protecting it.

Republican narrative

Republican-led states have acted fully within their legal rights and passed laws that protect children from the irreversible harm that could be caused by receiving these treatments, some of which are experimental. Although SCOTUS shouldn't have taken this case in the first place, it will hopefully see the light and leave the regulation of child welfare up to the states.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Russia will repeal or amend its laws that prohibit gender-affirming health care by May 2047, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Apple is continuing to violate the DMA, which explicitly states that the tech giant must provide third parties with an easily navigable process to reach consumers. Apple is still imposing excessive charges on app developers and restricting developers' promotional capabilities. Once Apple finally chooses to follow the law, it can rest assured that it will still make its share of profits without disrupting competition.

Narrative B

While Apple has certainly played a villainous role in this DMA saga, the EU isn't without fault. Instead of focusing on fees more generally, the Commission has allowed Apple to continue to impose the same charges through often unvetted third parties. The EC should let Apple oversee third-party developers under the condition that it fosters competition to bring fees down. Companies and consumers should both be the focus of this law.

Nerd narrative

There is a 99% chance that Apple will allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, preserve Israel's security, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. It is unfortunate that Hamas did not respond with a resounding "yes" to this thoughtful proposal, but the US will continue to work toward closing the gaps.

Pro-Israel narrative

The only party standing in the way of a cease-fire in Gaza is Hamas. Israel has gone out of its way to make concessions, but it simply cannot allow Hamas to continue its rule in Gaza, as it would immediately begin planning the next Oct. 7 terrorist attack. Israel appreciates US support, but Israel will do what it has to do to defend its citizens against these existential threats.

Pro-Palestine narrative

It should be clear after almost eight months of grinding brutality that Israel's true goal is to destroy Gaza and starve its people. Israel is simply not interested in committing to a permanent cease-fire, as Israeli officials have made clear that once the hostages are returned they will restart the war. Indeed, the US, aware of Israel's intransigence, refuses to do what is necessary to end the war.

Narrative D

Hezbollah and the regional resistance continue to demonstrate their military capabilities. Ultimately, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional conflict. However, Israel's genocidal actions and constant threats may indicate that a larger war is coming. Indeed, Hezbollah is ready to defend Lebanon.

Nerd narrative

There's an 8% chance that state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.