Pro-Israel narrative

By joining South Africa's anti-Israel campaign, Egypt is betraying decades of peaceful ties with Tel Aviv. Israel has successfully supported Cairo in fighting Islamist terror in Sinai, only to be stabbed in the back by Egypt in its fight against the Hamas terrorists. It also refuses to allow aid to be provided to the people in southern Gaza, whom it claims to defend. Israel has the right to self-defense under international law, and it will accomplish its mission against all odds.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Egypt officially backing South Africa's genocide case against Israel is a welcome and overdue step. Israel has now killed over 35K Palestinians in Gaza, and any country other than Israel would have long been held accountable for comparable war crimes against civilians and violations of international law. The international community must not apply double standards and take immediate action to end Israel's outrageous aggression in Gaza and its military assault on Rafah.

Nerd narrative

There's a 69% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Shoigu's role as defense minister was widely seen as untenable after one of his key allies was imprisoned on corruption charges and Shoigu was seen as not having done enough to root out the problem. This move allows Putin to get rid of him while allowing Shoigu to save face so he doesn't later become an issue.

Pro-Russia narrative

With Russia moving to a war economy, with a large percentage of gross domestic product going towards military expenditure, it's important to have an experienced economist heading the defense ministry so that national spending is streamlined — but also innovative — so that progress continues to move forward.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of president of Russia by February 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Spain's socialist government has ushered in a new era of relations between Catalonia and the rest of Spain, with these election results being proof-positive that the pragmatic and diplomatic approach of Sánchez is the soundest. By meeting the Catalonians in the middle, nationalist fervor in the region has declined, as Madrid for once proves to be a receptive ear for their concerns — even in the face of condemnation of their brave amnesty law.

Right narrative

Socialists may have won the battle, but they will shortly lose the war as a coalition government in Catalonia seems to be possible only with the support of at least one secessionist party. Discontent with their appeasement policy towards Catalonian separatists, particularly with the controversial amnesty bill, can only aggravate such a scenario. Furthermore, if Junts feels marginalized in its own political stronghold, it's likely to punish the central coalition government.

Narrative C

The Catalonian dream of independence has not died — especially as this outcome is all too similar to that of the national elections that allowed Sánchez to secure another term despite the conservative People's Party emerging as the seat leaders. As Illa faces an uphill battle to secure a majority, it's clear that Puigdemont is best placed to form a larger and more coherent government for Catalonia.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that Spain will recognize Catalonia as a sovereign state by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Modern technology, like anything, needs to be used properly. The happiest countries tend to be the wealthiest, and these (mostly Scandinavian) countries are happier largely due to their robust social welfare and healthcare systems. The digital world should be explored cautiously, not cited as the source of either happiness or discontent.

Narrative B

There are parts of the digital world causing wealthy Western nations to suffer mentally. As more children have grown up online, particularly with smartphones, they've missed out on historically normal childhood experiences, such as in-person play. The internet is negatively affecting people under 50, and corrective measures should be taken.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 45.6% of people will use the internet in Africa in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While more research is needed before xenotransplantation hits the public market, the months of bodily function provided to Slayman mark a historic feat. Legal and ethical factors will also be at play, but the thousands of Americans still waiting for a life-saving transplant can look forward to someday being able to opt into this medical lifeline.

Narrative B

Xenotransplants are morally abhorrent and are also dangerous to humans. Innocent animals should not be bred for the sole purpose of extracting their organs to place in human beings. Furthermore, the parasites carried by these animals could end up inserted into a patient, possibly resulting in the next deadly pandemic.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that lab-grown complex vital organs will be used successfully in humans before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Biden's failed economic policies have left Americans from all walks of life in jeopardy, and voters know that there must be a massive overhaul of the system and Trump can deliver it. Even demographics that are typically rock-solid for Democrats — people of color and young people — are facing the reality that four more years of Biden isn't the answer.

Democratic narrative

You can't put too much weight into this one poll, especially when there are more than 30 circulating right now showing Biden leading and gaining support. We're six months out from Election Day, and a large chunk of the electorate has not seriously weighed their choices yet. Democrats are leading Senate races in four battleground states, and Biden is doing fine.

Progressive narrative

This poll, and others showing similar results, must be a wake-up call to Democrats to change their tune and do more to reach out to those Trump is picking off. Young people aren't just souring on the president because of the war in Gaza; they're in dire economic straits. There must be more outreach to Black voters, as well, to reinforce how the president is a better choice than Trump.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Trump will win the 2024 US presidential election if it's Trump vs. Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While Indonesia is increasingly disaster-prone, the government has acknowledged this risk and boldly sought to address it financially. Between 2014 and 2018, a robust 1.9% of the government spending was allocated to disaster response and recovery. While natural disasters are a fact of life in Indonesia, there are significant and innovative investments and risk reduction measures underway.

Narrative B

Urban flooding in Indonesia increases in frequency annually and results in the deaths of hundreds of people. Instead of investing in multi-hazard large-scale risk reduction projects, the national and subnational governments have unfortunately allowed politics to infiltrate systems that should be designed logically. Real change starts at the local level where officials must commit to strong policies that are built on community support.

Narrative C

Increasingly severe downpours, flooding, and landslides are directly connected to human-induced climate change. Indonesia is among the top countries in terms of climate risk, which is why it must wake up and execute its climate agendas — including setting a target to cut emissions — to save lives and billions of dollars in damage. Any disaster risk reduction strategy and the local, subnational, or national level must accelerate and expand to encompass severe climate stress.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 2.8K people (per 100K) will be affected by natural disasters in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This mistreatment of employees has been going on for years and contradicts Catholic teaching about social justice and respect for the dignity of workers. The workers have no choice but to pursue legal action against Pope Francis' administration, and hopefully, the Holy See will begin honoring workers' rights to prevent this lawsuit from going further.

Narrative B

Pope Francis and his close allies have consistently advocated for social justice, fair labor practices, and an end to exploitative economic structures. The Holy See continues to fight for the dignity of all workers, and that includes the employees who work in Vatican City. It should be easy to resolve this legal matter if the workers' claims are legitimate.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the Catholic Church will elect a new Pope by October 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

This case is about the lengths to which Donald Trump is willing to go to retain his power and silence women. Two brave women at the heart of this case, Daniels and former Trump employee Hope Hicks have provided the evidence necessary to prove Trump's records alteration was ultimately in furtherance of another crime — election influence. Trump may have gotten away with silencing women for years, but this trial won't allow him to hush-money his way out of justice.

Pro-Trump narrative

This trial isn't a case of brave women taking on a powerful man but rather the state of New York coordinating with maligning "witnesses" to target its political opponent. District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who campaigned on going after Trump, has been credibly accused of withholding phone records between Cohen and Daniels' manager. Tampering with evidence is a felony in New York, so it appears Bragg, not Trump, should be on trial.

Nerd narrative

There is an 81% chance that Donald Trump will be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

As AI develops rapidly it's reasonable for people to fear for their jobs or, even worse, that AI will simply take over the world. In reality, AI is nowhere near reaching the complex capabilities or experiences of humans. Another cause for relief is that AI developers and regulators are building safeguards alongside these technological advancements, which means humans are marching with, not behind these chatbots.

Narrative B

While AI may not replace humans any time soon, these so-called digital assistants will be used to monitor and monetize us at a level never before seen. Sam Altman has continuously warned the world of the potential dangers of his technology while simultaneously advancing profit-driven product releases. Companies like OpenAI want to take data harvesting to the next level by inserting their bots into our phones and extracting every private detail about us.

Nerd narrative

There is a 96% chance that there will be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Menendez is the poster child of corruption and an utter disgrace to the Senate. It's unfathomable that he's retained his job in what could only be explained as a political favor from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Politicians on both sides of the political aisle have called for his resignation, and the American people deserve someone better than a Senator who's been bought off by foreign governments.

Narrative B

Menendez has the right of any US citizen to defend himself from the charges against him. The senator has consistently maintained he never accepted bribes. Political forces are quick to assume guilt, but that's not how the American judicial system operates and Menendez is innocent until proven guilty.

Nerd narrative

There's a 73% chance that the GOP will control the US Senate after the 2024 elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.