Narrative A

Many native Kanaks view the French parliament's decision on Monday to extend voting rights to French nationals in New Caledonia as a violation of the 1998 Noumea Accord, which granted the island increased political autonomy. This does not justify violent riots, but it does demonstrate deep-rooted anger with Paris because the decision will make the Kanaks a minority on their own island.

Narrative B

The deadly violence taking place in New Caledonia is unacceptable and has to stop. Paris has given security forces the power to quell the violence and restore order. The unrest is clearly an unfortunate overreaction. At the moment, Paris' top concern is public safety. Once things have settled, Paris will actively encourage the independence movement to come to Paris for a resumption of dialogue and talks.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that France will be the first country to administer more territory off Earth than on it, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

North Korea's regime discovered illicit crypto activities as a means to finance its nuclear ambitions and circumvent UN sanctions. The money laundering techniques and sophistication with which Pyongyang seeks to evade detection have increased. However, the US is hitting back by sanctioning crypto-mixers used for their clandestine operations. If crypto companies are now also taking cybersecurity and risk management more seriously, Pyongyang will have a serious problem.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US government and its oligarchs have been warning about state-sponsored financial cyberattacks for years, but their goal isn't to protect our wallets. With countries like North Korea as the scapegoat, Western banks, corporations, and think tanks will work to convince the public that they need a centralized digital currency system to "protect" them. In reality, the ruling class simply wants more control over our money to enrich themselves.

Nerd narrative

There's a 12% chance that North Korea will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The passing of this anti-democratic bill looks to align Georgia with Russia, defying the will of the people who seek to integrate with Europe and break away from the malign influence of Moscow. If Georgia wants to make an enemy of the West, while launching further crackdowns on its own people, the West will have to consider sanctions.

Establishment-critical narrative

As can be seen by the presence of EU officials giving speeches in the streets of Tsibili during protests, Western countries are once again meddling in the internal politics of Georgia as they have done elsewhere. This further underscores why such a foreign agents bill is necessary.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Georgia will control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Zelenskyy has canceled his foreign travel commitments to ensure that the urgent frontline situation is getting all the attention it needs. Zelenskyy is in constant communication with military chiefs and everything is being done to prevent the further loss of Ukrainian territory.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia has repeatedly made offers to end the conflict by means of a negotiated settlement. However, if the West and Ukraine are determined to settle the conflict by military means on the battlefield, so be it.

Nerd narrative

There is a 3% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While childhood obesity is unquestionably on the rise and comes with severe risks, the BMI Z-score appears to be outdated as it doesn't correctly measure excess fat. To prevent healthy children from being told they are unhealthy, it would be better to use a more appropriate waist-to-height ratio, which will more accurately tell someone if their body has put on too many pounds.

Narrative B

BMI Z-scores correlate strongly with fat measurements, so there's no need to question the rise in childhood obesity. The problem is also made clear when obese children develop cardiovascular disease, liver disease, and diabetes while their healthy peers do not. Children are hurting, and these data need to be taken seriously and followed up with public health measures that are serious and effective.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that 70.1% of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

It says something about the defense's desperation that instead of focusing on proving Trump didn't do the things he's accused of, Trump's lawyers instead try to undermine the credibility of Cohen. But Cohen held his nerve, didn't do anything to blow up the case, and even came across as sympathetic to the jurors. Trump's defense team has failed him.

Pro-Trump narrative

It doesn't take much to throw doubt on Cohen's credibility — after all, he's a convicted perjurer. There's no way a jury can take Cohen's testimony seriously, and the only way Trump doesn't beat these politically-motivated, overblown charges is if the mostly Democratic jurors can't get over their own biases.

Nerd narrative

There's an 81% chance that Trump will be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Biden has finally agreed to debate Trump, but he's insisting on absurd and unreasonable guardrails — no audience, no third-party candidates, time limits — and Democrat-friendly networks. Even on Biden's terms, Trump will prevail and show the US electorate why he should return to the White House.

Democratic narrative

Trump is going to get steamrolled, especially with the rules Biden is insisting on. Trump won't be able to function without an audience to cheer him on or with time limits keeping him from interrupting. Of course, it remains to be seen if he'll show up after dodging so many debates in 2020 and during the 2024 primary race.

Nerd narrative

There's a 49% chance that Donald Trump will win the 2024 Presidential election on the condition that Biden and Trump will debate in 2024, according to the metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This horrifying news is part of a growing trend of political violence across the European political spectrum. From the shooting of the founder of Spain's right-wing Vox Party to the physical harassment of a German Green Party member, the intensifying social division is now playing out before our eyes. Extremist ideologies of all sorts must be quelled, or else more violence will occur.

Establishment-critical narrative

The incessant attacks on Fico, from EU officials making political threats to today's shooting, are coming from those who are against the prime minister due to his desire to break away from the West's stronghold and maintain peace with Russia. Many of those opposed to EU- and NATO-skeptics like Fico have fostered an environment that allowed this act of violence to unfold.

Republican narrative

Republicans are setting themselves up well to retake the Senate majority. Hogan is a Trump critic who's popular on both sides of the political aisle, and Justice has Trump's seal of approval but doesn't pander to the former president's whims or focus much on the party's culture-war issues. These two nominees show the GOP is more than just Trump.

Democratic narrative

Democrats will have their hands full maintaining control of the Senate, but don't be fooled by some GOP nominees' differences with Trump. It's imperative for Democrats to do whatever possible to make sure a second Trump term doesn't come with a Republican Senate willing to rubber stamp his sweeping policy changes, regardless of how independent some Republicans claim to be.

Nerd narrative

There's a 74% chance that the GOP will control the Senate after the 2024 elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

After receiving bipartisan pushback for sending mixed signals about support for Israel, the Biden administration is taking half-measures to reaffirm his support for Washington's greatest ally. He has made an already-tenuous situation even worse by sending mixed signals and flip-flopping with his rhetoric.

Pro-establishment narrative

The war in Gaza has created a unique situation for the Biden administration to navigate, yet the president continues to take measures that reaffirm support for Israel while showing solidarity with Palestinian civilians. The White House remains steadfast in its support for the US’ ally, but it is also drawing common sense lines.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The Biden administration is feckless in even exerting minor pushback against Israel’s immoral campaign in Gaza, and is giving $1B in weapons less than a week after drawing a line in the sand. Israel completely disregarded repeated requests to not invade Rafah, and its defiance was barely met with resistance. Biden continues to capitulate to Israel’s demands while the IDF kills thousands of Palestinians, doubling down on his moral failures.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US will give at least $3.12B to Israel in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.