Anti-China narrative

Affecting even people whistling on the streets, the ridiculous ban on the "Glory to Hong Kong" protest anthem due to alleged national security concerns was designed to force censorship on tech giants' platforms such as YouTube. China's "one country, two systems" policy is effectively over.

Pro-China narrative

YouTube has been legally forced to remove controversial content around the world, including in the EU and US, so it's hard to understand how the court-ordered removal of a notorious seditious song would affect Hong Kong's reputation. In fact, given that "Glory to Hong Kong" does pose a threat to broader stability, YouTube should ban it globally.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

China's growing global EV dominance is setting the ground for a major trade war given the fears of dumping and the potential to raise tariffs. Its cheaper electric cars are often perceived as products of unfair competition via state subsidies. While the West often subsidizes EV consumption, China subsidizes production to boost exports amidst its own struggling consumer economy. Concerningly, China controls the supply chain for essential EV batteries, raising the stakes even more.

Pro-China narrative

It's the US that is harming both the automotive market and even broader energy and climate goals by unfairly imposing high tariffs on Chinese-made EVs. Even Western media outlets fear that such short-sighted, anti-China policies harm the American consumer by denying affordable, high-quality EV options. If this policy continues, PRC-produced EVs will come to dominate the global market, and US automakers will simply not produce EVs much at all — a shame for the American public and the world at large.

Narrative C

Tesla faces pressure to innovate and adapt to local preferences to stay competitive in China, which is the world's largest EV market. Despite leading with its Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla's limited product range and slow response to consumer demands have allowed rivals like BYD and Nio to gain ground. As demonstrated by the launch of the L60, these competitors offer a wider variety of models and features tailored to Chinese consumers, such as luxury interiors and advanced navigation systems—at more affordable prices.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance Tesla will become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Putin's trip to China shows who calls the shots in bilateral relations. Since the West's unprecedented sanctions over the unprovoked Ukraine invasion, Beijing became Moscow's economic lifeline. The Sino-Russian marriage of convenience aims to reshape the world according to its autocratic vision at the expense of the free world. Beijing is preparing for long-term competition and confrontation with the West, and Moscow is just a welcome means to achieve this goal.

Establishment-critical narrative

Putin's China visit is a powerful symbol of hope for the international community. The collective West is trapped in its concept of moral superiority, masking its hegemonic approach to global politics. The US and its vassals are desperately resisting a multipolar world order, which is also the context of the Ukraine conflict and other conflicts around the world. The China-Russia strategic partnership is a blessing for all peace-loving nations and will foster true multilateralism.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that China will attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

European nations have proudly flown the EU flag since the days of the Council of Europe. The flag, as well as the European anthem, represents the bloc's motto, "United in Diversity." The member bloc believes in honoring its individual sovereign nations as well as the combined strength of the union, and this flag should be flown proudly.

Establishment-critical narrative

European elites use the EU flag as a way to prioritize the collective bloc over their own countries and people, effectively disgracing the history and sovereignty of their own nations. The EU is not a country, and those who don't like national sovereignty should not be imposing their will on the majority who do. There should be no obligation to fly the EU flag.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and the situation must be remedied. The Biden admin. is committed to ensuring the safety and well-being of Palestinian civilians, and this port will be a highly effective way to get aid into Gaza.

Pro-Israel narrative

Facing pressure and criticism at home for supporting Israel, notably from its own political base, the Biden admin. came up with this floating pier to show sympathy for Gaza civilians and try to deliver aid without helping terrorists. This operation is short-sighted though. While it may solve the aid and food distribution crisis in the Strip for now, it fails to address the root problem It's only when Hamas is finally and completely destroyed that all the suffering in Gaza will come to an end.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The Biden admin., increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal war on Gaza. Regardless of the spin, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Palestinians are literally starving to death, and Biden would rather wax about cockamamie plans for new aid delivery mechanisms like building a port instead of taking concrete action to deter Israel's criminal behavior — which would be unsustainable without US support.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 500,000 Palestinians will be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

In doing former Pres. Donald Trump's bidding, the House GOP is grasping at straws. They couldn't impeach Biden, so they think they can embarrass him with this audio. Garland won't fulfill their ridiculous request and is the man Trump blames for the federal criminal cases against him, so they attempt to impeach Garland. Claiming executive privilege is the only way Biden can stop the GOP's unprecedented political attacks on the DOJ.

Republican narrative

What's unprecedented in this case is the president's claim of executive privilege when there are no confidential communications to protect — everything said is already available in the transcript. This is the elderly president's way of preventing the public from hearing what he sounds like when he's having cognitive issues. The electorate deserves to hear this with an election just months away.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Biden will be impeached by the US House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

For too long, EcoHealth has gotten away with waste, fraud, and abuse of the terms of its taxpayer-funded grants. The group denies the accusations, but it delays and stalls at every turn when asked to cooperate with Congressional investigations. Congress must continue to look into EcoHealth to determine if it has broken any laws.

Narrative B

Politics has clouded the minds of lawmakers from both sides of the aisle while they attempt to pin down the cause of the COVID pandemic. EcoHealth is being scapegoated and there's no evidence tying any research the group conducted with the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the origin of COVID. The truth will come out when EcoHealth's appeal is heard.

Nerd narrative

There's a 46% chance that before Jan. 1, 2025 at least two public health agencies will claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

In this display of armchair quarterbacking, Romney neglects to mention that such an action would irreparably destroy the rule of law in America and send a message to Trump and his supporters that the country will simply forgive and forget his crimes while further emboldening MAGA zealotry. Trump's abuses of power were grave, and he must face the music like any other American citizen.

Pro-Trump narrative

The anti-Trump Romney is right but for the wrong reasons the charges that Trump faces are a partisan charade that should never have been pursued. At the federal and state levels, politically motivated prosecutors — either directly from Biden's administration or Biden supporters in New York — have persecuted Trump. These trials were fixed from the start for the sole purpose of crushing Biden's opponent.

Narrative C

It is incumbent on Biden to try and turn down the temperature on the partisan rage that has possessed this country since Trump entered the political scene, and a pardon could have been the perfect measure. A wide swath of the population will never accept the legitimacy of the charges, and that anger could erupt with disastrous consequences and heighten division. A pardon could have snuffed out the resentment that powers Trump's 2024 campaign.

Nerd narrative

There's a 54% chance that Donald Trump will be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

While the ideological breakdown of the SCOTUS decision that ordered Louisiana to have two majority-black districts is suspicious, it should still be acknowledged as a win for Black voters and democracy. For at least the 2024 election, Democrats are poised to pick up an extra seat in the House thanks to Louisiana’s new map. More importantly, Black voters are gaining more equitable representation in an election that may determine the balance of power in Congress.

Republican narrative

Federal courts, even the supposedly conservative Supreme Court, are handing Congressional seats over to Democrats with decisions that clearly violate the Constitution. The use of race-based districting and legislation has long been maligned by liberals until it benefits the Democratic party. Racial gerrymandering is illegal, and it's clear that new congressional maps are relying on race to create new districts. However, since Black voters are overwhelmingly Democrats, these maps are being lauded as "victories."

Cynical narrative

Both Democrats and Republicans gerrymander massively, making American democracy far from fair. Election laws should change.

Nerd narrative

There is a 49% chance that Republicans will win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The stock market is rallying, and all signs point to the turbulent US economy making a soft landing. While the fight against inflation isn't necessarily over, investors are clearly optimistic about the direction of the economy as market sentiment continues to improve. The stock market is up and inflation is finally cooling, which is all you could want from the economy.

Establishment-critical narrative

The headlines may read that major stock indexes are up, but there are clear signs that the US economy could be heading towards a recession. Huge rises in certain stocks don't change the fact that inflation and interest rates remain quite high with no end in sight. It appears that the stock market is hitting the high end of a very volatile period, but that shouldn't provide much assurance about a supposed "soft landing" for the US economy.

Nerd narrative

There is an 18% chance that the S&P 500 will rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s, according to the Metaculus prediction community.