Establishment-critical narrative

Giving voting rights to French citizens in New Caledonia dilutes a 1998 accord that limited voting rights, and is akin to betraying Indigenous Kanaks, who make up over 40% of the population. Allowing all residents of the archipelago to vote in local elections will only benefit pro-France politicians in New Caledonia, further marginalizing indigenous people's voices, and undermining efforts to gain independence from Paris.

Pro-establishment narrative

The proposed electoral reforms are aimed at upholding democracy in New Caledonia. This violence in the archipelago has been orchestrated by Azerbaijan, which is spreading anti-French propaganda to avenge the French military's support for Armenia. Paris is determined to restore public order and calm, which the Caledonians — who have backed the island remaining part of France in three referendums — deserve.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that a terrorist act will occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Iran narrative

The tragic death of Pres. Raisi and his companions in this helicopter crash has shocked the entire world. While Iran and its allies mourn his loss, it's also time to remember his legacy. Under Raisi, Iran was able to continue its growth even as America launched a maximum-pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic. Furthermore, he bravely fought Western arrogance and hegemony at the international level to help build a multipolar world.

Anti-Iran narrative

Though the presidential role in Iran is mostly symbolic, the death of Raisi will likely trigger an internal power struggle within the regime at a time when the country is in complete chaos. Iran faces a crisis-hit economy and is mired in a regional war, while its main rivals are discussing deepening ties to counter Iran. At home, few are mourning the death of an unpopular leader, who was best known for his disdain for human rights.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

Lai is divisive and determined to undermine cross-Strait peace and stability in the region. If he implements secessionist policies, the People's Liberation Army is always ready to intervene. The new president must always remember that there's a One China policy — that even the US agreed to — and Taiwan is a part of China.

Anti-China narrative

China has tried various strategies to sway Taiwan, but Taiwanese voters continue to elect leaders it opposes. Despite Lai winning only a plurality in the election, strong anti-unification sentiment prevails on the island. Beijing must stop its military and political threats and work jointly with Taipei for peace.

Narrative C

As US-China relations worsen, Taiwan's defiance grows. This escalating tension risks dangerous confrontations, which is why Lai must find ways to appease China while maintaining Taiwan's unique global position to avoid further instability.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has the right to defend itself from terrorist attacks and an obligation to get hostages back from malicious actors. It's beyond outrageous to target the leader of a democratic country in the same breath as the leader of a terrorist group. ICC's action is a deep distortion of justice and a complete moral failure.

Pro-Palestine narrative

For too long, the ICC has shown a clear double standard in neglecting issues affecting Palestine. There's an urgent need for the ICC to treat Israel's actions in Gaza as existential issues of war crimes and genocide. Arrest warrants for top Israeli leadership must now be fully implemented and the collective punishment of the Palestinian people must stop.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that the International Criminal Court will issue arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, or Herzi Halevi before July 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Jacob Zuma is a dangerous demagogue, with his supporters threatening violence if he were to be removed from the ballot. His imprisonment led to rioting that claimed the lives of hundreds — which he has still refused to condemn. The court did the right thing to uphold the constitution, especially in the face of a corrupt strongman who thinks he's above the law.

Establishment-critical narrative

The former president is the true standard-bearer of the ANC's mission of liberation, which has been corrupted by Ramaphosa and his inner circle. Zuma attracts his support from those disgruntled with the monarchical ANC, which is failing South Africa on every front. The ruling does little to blunt his appeal to a broad cross-section of society that is desperate for change.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance the African National Congress will get at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2024 South African general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

While Julian Assange has been persecuted from abroad by the US government for years, this election year may put him in a bigger spotlight than ever. Both presidential candidates now have a history of indicting the Australian journalist, which puts Biden in a tough spot. As young voters are already tired of Biden's support of Israel's actions in Gaza, putting a freedom fighter in prison would only further fuel the flames of dissent.

Pro-establishment narrative

Assange wasn't just a journalist, nor were his leaks limited to showing video footage of improper military tactics. What he did was encourage an active-duty soldier to hack into US military systems, after which Assange leaked hundreds of thousands of unredacted documents, including the names of US intelligence sources. He put people's lives in danger and deserves to face trial for his actions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file will be publicly available by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Tshisekedi won his office amid accusations of corruption and questions about his legitimacy, and the people of the DRC remain impoverished and are searching for alternative leadership. Fighting corruption and improving governance are essential for peace and development, so the DRC must work with Western powers to empower the Congolese people instead of the nation's kleptocrats.

Establishment-critical narrative

Given the US' history of meddling in Congolese affairs — including the American private military company Bancroft's recent attack on Chinese-owned mines in the country — it wouldn't surprise the Congolese people if US mercenaries were involved here, too. Western nations, particularly the US, can't be trusted and the DRC will have to do its best without their help.

Nerd narrative

There's a 61% chance that the Democratic Republic of Congo will experience a civil war before January 1, 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Considering how many concessions Democrats made to Republicans on certain aspects of this bill, Republicans were wrong to reject it the first time and should strongly consider the impact of voting against it again. In addition to doing nothing to secure the border — which they talk about so much — Republicans would be taking a precarious political position on this issue.

Republican narrative

Republicans rejected this bill the first time because of its flaws, which have not been fixed. This bill will codify most of Pres. Biden's failed policies that have put the country in this predicament. If Democrats are serious about border security, they'll get behind the House bill, which would revive many successful Trump-era border policies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024 as a percentage of removals to encounters will be at least 5.8, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

It's ironic that as a prosecutor and mayor Giuliani built his reputation on creating a spectacle around criminal defendants — and now he's a criminal defendant creating a spectacle around himself. He could've avoided this by refraining from purposely avoiding the authorities. Instead, he's been served with more surely to come.

Narrative B

The Arizona AG's office's attempt to embarrass Giuliani and ruin his birthday party failed. He had an incredible time on his big night and the serving of his indictment was nothing but a minor distraction and a publicity stunt. Giuliani looks forward to being vindicated as the case plays out.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Donald J. Trump will be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

SpaceX's Starlink satellite will bring internet service to millions of Indonesians who were previously isolated. It's difficult to overstate the impact of providing connectivity to remote areas, and Elon Musk could end up saving thousands, if not millions, of lives, by giving internet access to hospitals and clinics across Indonesia. Sunday’s launch was a momentous occasion that will help cross the digital divide and catapult Indonesia's economy.

Narrative B

The long-term implications of Starlink's launch remain unknown, but it seems like the immediate impact is just a new internet satellite that costs twice as much as alternatives. Consumer costs of Starlink internet are currently double most providers, and it's hard to envision how such an expensive service can be brought to remote areas that didn't have internet access to begin with. The government is hopeful about Starlink, but let's wait before celebrating its launch in Indonesia.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 10.8K Starlink satellites will be in operation on January 1, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Gruenberg should resign immediately and Democrats should prioritize doing the right thing over politics and joining Republicans in calling for him to step down. Democrats have called for numerous officials to be fired or to resign over similar improprieties, and Gruenberg's status as a Democrat shouldn't protect him.

Democratic narrative

In an ideal world, Gruenberg would be replaced, but political logistics make the move risky. Regardless of how quickly the Senate acts, it could be months to name his replacement. This could leave the FDIC in a weak position to promote key reforms during a time of banking uncertainty.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 138 FDIC banks will fail in the time period from 2023 through 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.