China, Japan, South Korea Pledge Increased Cooperation
Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and South Korean Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol have agreed to work more closely in a wide range of areas, including economics and trade.
During a trilateral summit in Seoul on Monday, they pledged to hold three-way talks regularly, boost the number of people-to-people exchanges, and join efforts to fight climate change.
Pro-China narrative
It's crystal clear that America wants to use both Japan and South Korea as proxies to advance its hegemonic ambitions to counter China, so Japan and South Korea's leaders must not fall into a trap that will bring instability and chaos to East Asia. Seoul and Tokyo must act according to their national interests and accelerate cooperation with Beijing.
Anti-China narrative
Under pressure from the West, Beijing has no alternative other than to restore trilateral cooperation with Japan and South Korea. And as China remains their largest trading partner, the two major US allies in the Asia-Pacific can't just ditch it. Yet, this is no cause for alarm, as even Washington has worked to stabilize ties with the PRC.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that there will be a US-China war before Jan. 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ex-FTX Executive Ryan Salame Sentenced to Over 7 Years in Prison
Ryan Salame, the former top executive at the defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX, was sentenced to seven-and-a-half years in prison for campaign finance law violations and for operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business.
The first of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's subordinates to be convicted since the exchange's collapse in late 2022, Salame will also serve three years of supervised release, forfeit $6M, and pay more than $5M in restitution.
Narrative A
The FTX saga has revealed an intrinsic problem with cryptocurrency that was bigger than Sam Bankman-Fried or any of his underlings. What FTX was found guilty of is par for the course in the cryptocurrency world, as an entity built on imaginary tokens it produced itself. This problem doesn't end with FTX, and it may be the fatal flaw at the heart of all cryptocurrency ventures.
Narrative B
While Bankman-Fried's mistakes have cast a shadow over the crypto world, the fact is that too much regulation, not a lack of it, made this possible. By keeping centralized deposits, FTX was tempted to skim off customers' money. The blockchain allows for decentralized exchanges that use "smart contracts" to have every cent accounted for. What brought down FTX was a flaw in humanity, not cryptocurrency itself.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that Cryptocurrency Miners will be considered "brokers" by the IRS by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
South Africa Holds Landmark General Election
South Africans began voting Wednesday in the most competitive election since the end of apartheid, with polls suggesting the ruling African National Congress (ANC) could lose its outright parliamentary majority.
Over 27M South Africans are registered to cast their votes at over 23K polling stations for the provincial assemblies in the country's nine provinces and for a new national parliament. The new parliament will then select the next president.
Narrative A
South Africa still faces significant challenges due to its apartheid history, but the ANC has achieved a great deal under Ramaphosa, including several economic reforms and effective measures that were taken to combat crime and corruption. Moreover, decisive action led to reduced power cuts and the revitalization of infrastructure and the construction industry. The ANC led South Africa out of apartheid and will deliver on the promise of the "rainbow nation."
Narrative B
The ANC can no longer rest on the laurels of the past, while economic and social conditions are becoming unbearable for an ever-increasing number of South Africans. The country is on the brink of collapse due to the ANC's corruption, mismanagement, and abuse of power. The people must hold the ANC accountable for undermining the country's institutions and its future as a democratic and prosperous nation for over 30 years.
Narrative C
South African democracy is facing unprecedented challenges. If the ANC falls just short of a majority, the Inkatha Freedom Party is seen as the most likely coalition partner — if the ANC falls below 40%, a coalition of the ANC with the pro-business DA or the ultra-left EFF may be on the cards. All three scenarios pose unique risks to social cohesion, whatever the outcome.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that the ANC will receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US-Built Gaza Pier Breaks Apart Due to Bad Weather
A US military-built pier off the coast of northern Gaza broke apart on Tuesday due to harsh weather conditions. The Pentagon said that the pier will need "rebuilding and repairing," which will likely take more than a week. The pier cost around $320M.
Fighting continued in Rafah, with Gaza's health authorities saying on Tuesday that Israeli tank shells killed 21 people in a tent camp in al-Mawasi, which was designated as a civilian evacuation zone. Israel denied carrying out the attack.
Pro-establishment narrative
Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand, and the Biden administration's red lines are clear. Netanyahu must keep his promises and work with US allies to find a resolution to this conflict.
Pro-Israel narrative
Facing pressure and criticism at home for supporting Israel, notably from its own political base, the Biden administration came up with this floating pier to show sympathy for Gaza civilians and try to deliver aid without helping terrorists. This operation was short-sighted, however, as it failed to address the root problem — Hamas' terrorist army, which must be completely defeated to ensure a lasting peace.
Pro-Palestine narrative
The Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal war on Gaza. Regardless of the spin, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Palestinians are literally starving to death, and Biden would rather wax about unrealistic plans for new aid delivery mechanisms like building a port instead of taking concrete action to deter Israel's criminal behavior — which would be unsustainable without US support.
Nerd narrative
There's a 67% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Putin Warns Against Western Missiles Striking Inside Russian Territory
Amid growing momentum for allowing Ukraine to use Western weaponry to strike targets inside Russian territory, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin warned that EU and NATO countries were playing fire, stating that such a move would lead to a global conflict with "serious consequences."
Following lobbying from Ukraine, Britain's foreign secretary, Lord David Cameron, was the first to give his backing for the idea. During a visit to Kyiv early in the month, he said it was up to Ukraine how it used British weapons, but said it had the "right" to strike in Russian territory, just as Russian missiles were striking in Ukraine.
Pro-establishment narrative
By making thinly veiled references to Russia's nuclear weapons, Putin hopes to continue deterring Ukraine's allies from allowing strikes on Russian territory, knowing that this would change how effectively Ukraine is able to defend itself. In reality, the threat of this sort of escalation is minimal and would make a big difference to Ukraine's war effort.
Pro-Russia narrative
With the West continuing to escalate the conflict by making these reckless declarations, it continues to validate why Russia must stay true to course and achieve the objectives of its Special Military Operation in Ukraine. Russia will not tolerate threats to its territory and such threats will be eliminated.
Nerd narrative
There is a 42% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Haiti's Transition Council Picks New Prime Minister
The nine-member Transitional Presidential Council of Haiti on Tuesday selected former prime minister Garry Conille to return to that post in the midst of gang violence that has sparked a political and humanitarian crisis since February.
Conille, who has 25 years of experience at the UN and the Red Cross, last served as the regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean at UNICEF. He also served for four months as Haiti's prime minister in 2011.
Establishment-critical narrative
The world community must support democracy, let Haiti chart its own path, and allow the council to govern. When the outside world, particularly the US, intervenes, Haiti has a history of being ruled by corrupt individuals. Hopefully, an independent and strong Haiti can emerge from this turmoil.
Pro-establishment narrative
Haiti needs US support on the ground because the government is outmanned and outgunned by violent criminal gangs, making a Haiti-led recovery a pipe dream. Famine, death, and a refugee crisis are looming if the hemisphere's superpower doesn't restore order and back the transitional government, buying time for UN security forces.
Nerd narrative
There's a 74% chance that Haiti will experience a successful coup d'etat before Jan. 1, 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ohio: Democrats, GOP Take on Biden's Ballot Eligibility
With the US Democratic Party's presidential nomination convention set for August, a political problem has developed in Ohio, as the national convention is after the state's legal deadline for registering a nominee. Accordingly, the party will hold an earlier virtual event to nominate Pres. Joe Biden to try and keep him on Ohio's ballot.
Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, whose party currently controls the state House and Senate, called a special legislative session to pass a law to fix the issue.
Democratic narrative
In a state where 500K people just voted to nominate Biden as their party's candidate, extremist Republicans, led by pseudo-moderate Gov. DeWine, are threatening to strip them of their right to vote in the presidential election. Instead of following historical precedent and passing a simple law to put Biden on the ballot, the GOP supermajority is tacking on an amendment to prevent grassroots organizers from running future campaigns.
Republican narrative
Democrats voted to change the deadline 10 years ago, and then, for whatever reason, proceeded to schedule their party's convention for after that date. After complaining that their opponents were not enforcing election rules, they've now decided to claim that enforcing them threatens Democracy. The Ohio GOP has offered a deal to fix this, so now it's up to the other side to decide whether they want to clean up the mess they made.
Nerd narrative
There is a 96% chance that the Republican nominee for President in 2024 will win in Ohio, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Campaign Launches 'Black Voters for Biden-Harris' Initiative
US Pres. Joe Biden and Vice Pres. Kamala Harris are together kicking off their "Black Voters for Biden-Harris" campaign initiative Wednesday in Philadelphia, Pa. This comes as Biden's support among Black voters has dropped since 2020.
The campaign will reportedly spend eight figures on what it's calling "summer outreach and engagement programming," which will include the president and vice president visiting Black community, student, and faith groups.
Democratic narrative
Despite recent polls, Biden still holds the vast majority of Black support in the country. These polls could also shift rapidly toward the president as his campaign begins reaching out to Black communities to discuss how his policies have led to historic gains for black Americans. This includes low unemployment and higher rates of both health insurance and business ownership. The Democratic ticket is the anti-racist ticket, and most Black voters know that.
Republican narrative
Biden's economic policies have been so disastrous that he's losing millions of Black and Brown voters. Instead of promising to do better as president, and encouraging them to take charge of their own lives as Americans, he's telling them to fear racism around every corner as the greatest threat to prosperity. Biden's failed excuses are so apparent that even the most loyal Democratic voters are turning away from him.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least 15.7% of Black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 Presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
MLB Adds Negro Leagues Stats to Official Record Books
Major League Baseball (MLB) on Wednesday announced it has incorporated Negro Leagues statistics into the official MLB record books — adding more than 2.3K players to its official database and naming new all-time leaders in various statistical categories.
This comes four years after MLB elevated the Negro Leagues to "Major League" status and recognized the statistics and records of a total of 3.4K Black players who played in the segregated leagues between 1920 and 1948. As part of the research and documentation process, the 2.3K players are those who have had their records vetted and integrated into MLB statistics so far.
Narrative A
This is a long-overdue correction of historical neglect. For decades, players who faced racism and inequities were deprived of the recognition they deserved and fans were limited in what they could learn about these players. This is a major part of celebrating the Negro Leagues and honoring the men who defined baseball of the era.
Narrative B
MLB has gone too far in trying to celebrate the Negro Leagues' players' accomplishments. While modern politics push for overcorrections to past injustices, it's important to remember that we cannot rewrite history. Negro Leagues records should receive more recognition than they have in the past, but they shouldn't supplant official MLB records because each era and league has a specific historical context.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the last baseball World Series be played by August 2091, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump NY Criminal Case: Jury Deliberations Begin
Jury deliberations in former Pres. Donald Trump’s New York criminal trial began Wednesday. Trump faces 34 felony charges related to his alleged falsifying of business documents related to $130K in payments made to Stormy Daniels — payments prosecutors characterize as "hush money."
Judge Juan M. Merchan provided lengthy instructions that included guidance on factors the panel should consider when assessing witness testimony, such as motive and plausibility.
Pro-Trump narrative
This case has been crooked from the jump, and Merchan's behavior serves as a prime example of how he's part of the witch hunt and has subverted US law. Merchan disregarded normal court protocols and surprised even the most anti-Trump liberals. He is trying to mix and match charges and do everything in his power to get Trump convicted.
Anti-Trump narrative
After weeks of convincing testimony, the case has been made against Trump and now it's up to the jurors to come through and do the right thing because this may be the only case — out of four criminal cases against Trump — that gets adjudicated before Election Day. If Trump's ever going to be held accountable, it has to happen now.
Nerd narrative
There's a 71% chance that Trump will be found guilty of at least one felony in his New York "hush money" criminal trial, according to the Metaculus prediction community.