Pro-establishment narrative

While it may claim that military spy satellites are justified and legitimate in defending its sovereignty and security against the US and its allies, the truth is that North Korea is using ballistic missile technology to compete with other growing space powers in the region. Pyongyang is further fueling instability with its provocative escalations.

Establishment-critical narrative

Given that North Korea has openly tested its intercontinental ballistic missile systems, it's evident that its satellite launches are no longer used as a cover for its ballistic missile program. Whether you agree or not with the political goals and military strategies from the North, capabilities such as spy satellites can help promote regional stability.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that North Korea will first put a person in space by 2057, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Burkina Faso must restore civilian rule as soon as it's feasible to do so. Not only are human rights deteriorating rapidly in the Sahel, but the military government has not made its promised progress toward ending Islamist violence. Instead, Burkina Faso has let the Trojan horse of Russian influence seep into the region and further threaten human rights. A dictatorship will only hurt the country in the long run.

Establishment-critical narrative

This situation is only possible due to the West's absolute impotence in the face of a devastating insurgency that has brought Burkina Faso to its knees. While it once cooperated with the West, Burkina Faso's failures in dealing with terrorism have led the country to turn to Russia to fill the security vacuum. The West African nation must defeat terrorism before democracy can be restored.

Nerd narrative

There is a 40% chance that Burkina Faso will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

India's cyclone season is intensifying due to the rapidly warming Indian Ocean. Cyclones in recent years, like Tauktae and Yaas, caused widespread disruption and mass evacuations. Rising sea temperatures driven by climate change, particularly in the Arabian Sea, lead to more frequent and severe cyclones.

Narrative B

Despite speculation about the future cyclones in the region and the factors that exacerbate them, the reality is forecasting technology has a long way to go. Existing forecasting systems often underestimate cyclone speeds and intensity, although forecast accuracy has improved. Improving forecasting models is vital to building situational awareness and enhancing disaster preparedness in the future.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 2.83˚C of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Over the course of several months, Hungary has continued to fabricate different reasons explaining why it cannot support various measures that support Ukraine. One country is basically holding the rest of the EU hostage — not allowing the bloc to carry out effective foreign policy.

Narrative B

Despite being a democratic institution, EU countries resorted to shouting and abuse when Hungary exercised its sovereign right to block decisions that harm its national interest. Hungary has no desire to follow these pro-war leaders in furthering these reckless moves that only escalate the prospects of a full-blown conflict.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that Hungary will leave the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand, and the Biden administration's red lines are clear. Netanyahu must keep his promises and work with US allies to find a resolution to this conflict.

Pro-Israel narrative

The battle for Rafah is the most important battle of this war. Israeli forces are focusing on the Philadelphi corridor, which straddles the Egyptian border, as this region is crucial in preventing Hamas from rebuilding its terror supply lines into Gaza. Indeed, Israel must continue to push forward in Rafah, as it is the only way to defeat Hamas.

Pro-Palestine narrative

After over seven months of non-stop brutality, the situation in Gaza continues to worsen. The US has simply failed to reel Netanyahu in, and over 35K Palestinians are dead because of it. Indeed, Israeli attempts to evacuate Rafah have forced almost 1M people into even worse humanitarian conditions. Israeli crimes keep stacking up, yet the international community and the US refuse to do anything meaningful to stop the carnage.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by October 2075, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

This is a continuation of the ICC engaging in underhanded tactics to attack Israel. The ICC can't be taken seriously since it's a handmaiden for terrorist apologists and somehow finds a moral equivalency between Hamas and Israel. The ICC has trampled on all its founding principles in how it has treated Israel and Israelis have every right to be suspicious of its claims.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel treats the international community with contempt every time the world attempts to hold it accountable. These allegations should come as no surprise since Israel continues to flout international law with impunity. More light is finally being shed on Israel's war crimes and how it has attempted to cover them up.

Nerd narrative

There's a 97% chance that the ICC will bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While Musk is an expert at building rockets and good at promoting free speech, the AI industry is not his forte. To succeed in the AI race, you must first understand the potential of the technology, which Musk clearly doesn't given he thinks AGI will be created by next year. The billionaire will also overwork his employees to achieve these unrealistic goals, which is why his hiring offers will likely fall on deaf ears.

Narrative B

Critics of Musk's AI endeavors clearly haven't seen his diverse record of success in the technology sector. In a unique fashion, Musk uses his several companies to complement each other, as shown by his SpaceX employees working with the Boring Company to build tunnels. Now, he's tapping into the rich information source of his social media company X to build AI that tries to understand and help humanity rather than control it.

Cynical narrative

The primary question here shouldn't be who raises the most money or who's more technologically savvy. It should be why are we allowing these companies — from OpenAI and Google to Anthropic and xAI — to continue their projects when their executives have all warned that AGI might destroy the world? This is an arena that needs extensive regulation and thought.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the first general AI system will be devised, tested, and publicly announced by 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

With Congress dragging its heels, the White House is taking the initiative to modernize the country's electrical grid at a crucial time, as a major rise in data centers and AI is going to require more electricity. Climate change-denying legislators may be leaving their constituents in the dark after major storms, but the Biden administration is taking action to help all Americans.

Right narrative

This is nothing but a huge corporate tax scam meant to prevent huge companies focused on so-called "green" energy from paying their fair share in taxes. These companies are profiting off of climate hysteria while being subsidized by the tax dollars of hard-working Americans. The Biden administration is disingenuously participating in public-private sector climate grift.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that US greenhouse gas emissions will be halved by Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Michael Avenatti is a serial convicted white-collar criminal, and now multiple federal courts have affirmed that he's guilty of trying to extort Nike for $25M. It's quite clear that he plotted to blackmail Nike by threatening to publicly divulge allegations of unlawful payments to amateur athletes. His weak arguments have been rejected, and he will now pay the time.

Narrative B

While Michael Avenatti is far from a model citizen — and was a major celebrity figure in cases against Donald Trump and Bret Kavanaugh — he could be a linchpin in exposing a corrupt and exploitative system that preys on young athletes. Even if Avenatti was solely motivated by milking Nike for some benefits, his claims against the company still have merit.

Anti-Trump narrative

As Blanche's closing arguments showed, the defense's best chance may be to confuse the jury and sow doubt in the jurors. Leading up to and during the closing arguments, the defense failed to prove Trump's innocence — instead relying on character assassinations of witnesses and defending things that didn't have to do with the alleged crimes. An organized, simplified case made by the prosecution should prevail.

Pro-Trump narrative

This case never should've made it to trial, but the Democrats' witch hunt against Trump has marched on. There are so many issues that need attention in the US, yet the Biden administration and the Democrats have wasted precious time and resources trying to stop Trump's return to the White House. These are dangerous times in the US.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that Trump will be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.