Pro-establishment narrative

The verdict highlights the West's ability to prosecute perpetrators of crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide regardless of their nationality. Even if it remains largely symbolic, the judgment would set a legal precedent to hold Assad accountable and refocus international attention on atrocities unleashed on his opponents.

Establishment-critical narrative

Though the verdict is cathartic for plaintiffs, it will not immediately result in justice for its victims or perpetrators' arrest because accountability for atrocities committed in Syria has been fleeting. Rather than prosecute Syrian war criminals in their own courts, world leaders, including US Pres. Joe Biden, have been busy reconciling with the Syrian dictator.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Syria will be classified as no longer being in a state of civil war by February 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

While the international police force is nominally led by Kenya, the US is the one funding and coordinating the deployment. Unfortunately, Republicans have stalled the passage of a vital $94M security package, which could put the larger $300M pledged by Washington at risk. The deaths of these missionaries show that gangs are still in charge, and Congress needs to step up now.

Republican narrative

Biden is feigning ignorance on this issue, as Washington already has the power to send US soldiers to ensure the safety of Americans still trapped in Haiti. Unlike Kenya, Haiti is in the US' backyard, and Americans have family members on the island who are at risk of facing the same brutality imposed on these missionaries. Biden needs to lock down this situation and keep Americans safe.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US, through its international proxy, the UN, has been forcing its preferred leaders on the Caribbean island nation for the past 20 years. These so-called security missions and pseudo-democratic initiatives have led to dictators, assassinations, and coups every time, and the West seems determined to do it again. Haiti could find peace if its people were released from this US stranglehold.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Haiti will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This crisis can only be solved with immense international support. As Papua New Guinea is a diverse, developing nation of mostly subsistence farmers, limited road connectivity and a disrupted power supply will make relief operations difficult. While the US and Australia are already involved in the response, a lot more may need to be done.

Establishment-critical narrative

Since its independence in 1975, Papua New Guinea has relied heavily on industries like palm oil and logging but has also been struggling with corruption and environmental degradation. Due to World Bank intervention, land reforms have led to deforestation and socio-economic disparities to enrich corporations hungry for access to its resources.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 4.15k per 100K people will be affected by natural disasters by 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The next pandemic is merely a question of when — rather than if — and the world must be ready because human timetables will be worthless. That's why a global pandemic treaty has to be in place as soon as possible to improve preparedness and response to such an event and ensure a safer future for humankind.

Establishment-critical narrative

Even before the once-in-a-generation coronavirus pandemic ended, the media and WHO were looking for a new worldwide health emergency, so warnings about the next pandemic are nothing but new. Adopting a treaty would effectively create a large pandemic industry and allow personal freedoms to be restricted again.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that at least 10 countries will ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Macron's state visit comes at the right time to underline the strength of Franco-German ties despite sometimes differing political views. Europe is not only facing internal threats from the rise of far-right parties but also global geopolitical shifts from the rise of autocratic regimes. However, Europe has the potential to emerge from these challenges stronger and more resilient if the electorate opts for the right political course to defend its values.

Establishment-critical narrative

Macron's visit is meant to demonstrate alleged unity between the two major European countries. However, while Scholz and Macron project Europe's problems onto the far right, the electorate feels that their policies are increasingly detached from people's real concerns. Voters are not primarily concerned about European policy or the Ukraine war but about national security and migration issues and are likely to express their discontent in the European elections.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany will leave the EU before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Ukraine is right to be distrustful of Russia's presence at any peace talks. It knows that for Russia, such talks are merely a tool that they're willing to manipulate and later ignore to achieve their wider goals. History shows this to be the case — demonstrated when pro-Russia proxies invaded parts of Ukraine in 2014 and again in 2022 when Russia launched its fully-fledged invasion.

Pro-Russia narrative

Whatever comes out of the Ukrainian Peace Summit is null and void. How can you try to have a negotiated settlement to the war with only one side of the conflict? If Ukraine is real about bringing the war to an end, it must negotiate with Russia.

Nerd narrative

There is a 4% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Sunak's National Service is a win-win for the UK — allowing young people to gain vital experiences while contributing to key sectors of society. While maybe too little too late for the Tories, the announcement is a sign that the UK is beginning to wake up to the urgent need for national reform and healing.

Establishment-critical narrative

After cutting funding to Cameron's National Citizen Service by two-thirds, Sunak and the Tories have now chosen to revive an archaic policy idea in a desperate bid to maintain their position in government. In a narrow-minded, short-term move aimed at holding onto power, the Tories have managed to only further alienate younger voters whose election influence will only continue to grow in the years to come.

Nerd narrative

There's a 98% chance that the Labour Party will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

There is only one word to describe Israel's campaign in Gaza — genocidal. Even if Israeli claims that Hamas officials were present in the area are true, that is not a legitimate reason to knowingly burn women and children alive. This war has gone on for far too long, and Israel must be held accountable for its brutal crimes.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel carried out a legitimate strike against terror targets in Rafah, as Hamas operatives have continued to hide among the civilian population. Unfortunately, an accidental fire was sparked by Israeli strikes harming civilians. Israel will investigate this incident thoroughly.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand. Netanyahu must keep his promises and work with US allies to find a resolution to this conflict.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that a shared power arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Libertarian narrative

The Libertarian Party rejected both Trump and Kennedy as they sought a more youthful candidate for the 2024 presidential election in Chase Oliver. At age 38, this is Oliver's first attempt at becoming President of the United States. His ambition is not to win the election but to build a nationwide campaign and educate young voters about libertarian values.

Pro-Trump narrative

Former Pres. Trump believes that, despite the outcome of the Libertarian nomination process, most Libertarian voters will choose him come election day. RFK Jr.'s radical left platform clearly does not fit the bill, and, of course, voters will resoundingly reject another four years of Joe Biden. As the former president eloquently explained during the Libertarian convention, Trump is the only choice to save America's sinking ship.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's stumping at the Libertarian Party convention was an epic fail. In stark contrast to a MAGA rally, Trump was surprised to find himself in hostile territory and did not swoon libertarians like he'd hoped. Come November, it's very possible that a small but solid Libertarian Party led by Oliver could keep votes away from Trump.

Narrative D

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is still an incredible wildcard for the November election, even though he didn't win the Libertarian nomination. Polling shows it's still unclear if he causes more damage to Biden or Trump, but his vote totals could be enough to tip the scales in some swing states. Kennedy could be a difference maker in a state like Arizona — the GOP and Democratic Party alike need to pay very close attention.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the Democratic and Republican parties' (combined) percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will be at least 95.3%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Austin has now been completely transparent regarding his health. A perfect storm of circumstances botched the disclosure of his earlier medical problems, with Pres. Biden standing behind his defense secretary all the way. Austin has the complete trust of the administration and looks forward to his continued presence at the helm.

Republican narrative

Austin's previous opacity regarding his health issues makes him unqualified to lead the nation's army. Austin vanished without a trace earlier this year, weakening America in the eyes of the world, and raising serious questions as to his fitness for the job. In the face of an uncertain world, Austin must resign for health reasons.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that any country's military expenditure will exceed that of the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Grayson Murray’s death is a horrific tragedy that shocked the golf community and the entire world. Unlike many professional athletes who maintain a facade of invincibility, Murray was open and honest about his personal struggles. He showed millions of people battling anxiety, depression, and alcoholism that they are not alone, and he was an inspiration to many. Now is the time to honor his legacy.

Narrative B

Murray was very open and honest about his personal struggles. While an individual will always have the final say over his decisions, this tragedy also sheds light on Murray's numerous cries for help. The entire sports world is devastated by his death, and Murray's memory is also a solemn reminder for all of us to pay close attention to the mental health of our loved ones.