Left narrative

This egregious mandate is bringing innocent students to suicidal thoughts. After years of paying on time and attending classes, honest and hardworking individuals are being deported due to economic factors completely out of their control. To make things worse, the government is forcing students to leave even if they've made new payment plans with the university.

Right narrative

While instances like this may seem harsh at first glance, the Home Office can't afford to loosen its student visa rules at a time of rampant abuse of the system. Whether it be tuition payments, sufficient English proficiency, or passing background checks, the government has a duty to its citizens to maintain high immigration standards.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Nigeria will have a coup before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

French public broadcasting is already in decline, and employees are facing increasing insecurity and job losses due to restructuring and austerity measures. As powerful multinationals increasingly restrict the public sphere in favor of the mainstream, public service broadcasting is crucial for unbiased opinion-forming in a democratic and pluralistic society. The new bill will further erode the financial and editorial autonomy of public service broadcasting and must be stopped.

Narrative B

In a world of increased competition between traditional media platforms and the internet — particularly social networks — a restructuring of public service broadcasting is vital to make it more competitive and stronger. Fears that the quality of reporting will suffer as a result are unfounded, as the bill will not standardize professions or activities. The joint holding company already exists, and as the status quo is untenable, the reform must finally be implemented.

Narrative C

As far as the reporting quality is concerned, the debate about merging the French public broadcasters is irrelevant. If it ever was, French reporting has long since ceased to be "free and independent," as shown by issues in Gaza war coverage in recent months. French public broadcasting journalists may be worried about their jobs, but not about journalistic standards. For the media to fulfill their democratic function, reforms of a widespread systemic nature are needed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 38% chance that Marine Le Pen will be elected President of France in 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While this was a heinous attack and is rightly condemned, it cannot be swept under the rug that Fico's policies in Slovakia had a part to play in this. Those not only include shouldering up to Russia's Vladimir Putin and Hungary's Viktor Orban, but also his pushing through of controversial reforms that have alienated many in his country.

Establishment-critical narrative

While Slovakia has undergone the same processes of polarization that have swept through much of Europe and the West, likely a contributing factor in this attack, Western leaders need to be more careful in alienating leaders like Fico. Such moves only work to decrease the unity in the EU and bring people like Fico even further into Russia's sphere of influence.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7.5% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus community prediction.

Pro-establishment narrative

The foreign influence law is part of a larger trend to dismantle civil society, undermine nongovernmental organizations, and weaken democratic forces in Georgia. It's an authoritarian move to crush dissent and shift the former Soviet republic from a pro-Western course back toward Russia. The US must do what it can to prevent the country's slide toward autocracy.

Establishment-critical narrative

Georgia needs this law to preserve its sovereignty, promote transparency, and block foreign forces from eroding its democratic principles. The meddling of outside powers, including the US, in Georgia's internal affairs validates the legislation's significance. Washington must refrain from blackmailing a sovereign, independent state.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the Georgian Dream party will win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

It's simply undeniable that the war in Gaza has taken a terrible toll on its population, and the US is committed to alleviating that suffering. Nonetheless, baseless accusations are unhelpful. The only way to assist the Palestinians in Gaza is to find a cease-fire and resolution to this conflict through negotiations.

Pro-Israel narrative

The fact that South Africa's vendetta against Israel is legitimized through international legal proceedings is an absurd mockery of justice and reason. Indeed, all this case does functionally is strengthen Hamas' military position in Gaza, as Israel is forced to fight with its hands tied behind its back. Nonetheless, the ruling leaves room for some conditionality that Israel may continue the offensive as long as civilians are protected.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel has committed regular massacres in Gaza in addition to the famine it has created and must face accountability for its crimes. Though these measures still do not go far enough, given Israel's behavior, the ruling clearly means that Israel must end the offensive and withdraw from the strip.

Nerd narrative

There's a 69% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

Lai's rhetoric is unacceptable and it's crucial for China to conduct these drills to send a message to his pro-secession factions in Taiwan's government — and to outside forces who seek to support them — that Beijing will not sit idly by. These drills show China is willing to put its vast military power to work to do whatever it takes to deter Taiwan's rebellious inclinations.

Anti-China narrative

This was a predictable reaction by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Lai's inauguration speech. China's always flexing its muscles when it feels disrespected, but the Taiwanese people aren't afraid. And Xi has united all of Taiwan's political parties against these drills — with even those who are considered pro-China calling for restraint from Beijing. Taiwan doesn't scare easily.

Nerd narrative

There's a 40% chance that the People's Republic of China will control at least half of Taiwan before Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Despite the claim that Ecuador has violated international law, it's effectively the other way around. It was Mexico that abused its immunities and privileges to illegitimately grant political asylum and provide refuge to a convicted common criminal. This ICJ ruling asserts that actions taken in Quito were entirely justified and in good faith.

Narrative B

The ICJ has effectively declared that Ecuador must respect Mexico's diplomatic premises, as precautionary measures were rejected simply because Quito had legally committed to comply with them beforehand. When the broader case is resolved, then Ecuador will be held accountable for breaching long-established rules on diplomatic immunity.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1.8% chance that Mexico will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While North Korea has a history of ramping up missile tests during US election years, the current threat is especially dangerous with Russia as its ally. With Russian technology at its disposal, Pyongyang may decide to launch a small but significant strike on the South. If the Biden administration fails to deter North Korean aggression, it could pave the way for Trump, who has boasted about his friendship with Kim Jong Un, to gain another term in the White House.

Narrative B

Just because Trump supporters and Eastern governments agree on certain truths about America doesn't make Republicans agents of Russia. Western intelligence agencies recently lied about two of the largest events in recent history — COVID and the CIA and NATO's role in sparking the Ukraine war. People across the world, from presidents Putin and Xi to anti-establishment voters in the US and Canada, are tired of Western elites gaslighting them and making geopolitical allegations that are false and downright dangerous.

Nerd narrative

There is a 9% chance of a US-Russia war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While residents of East Palestine and the surrounding areas desperately want to put last year's traumatic train derailment behind them, many are fairly wondering if they will reap adequate rewards from Norfolk Southern's recent settlements. The railway is a massive company that rakes in billions, and its failures led to a catastrophic event with scary short and long-term health effects. It is hard to calculate all the damage the derailment caused, but when calculating payments, it seems like community residents are being shortchanged by the multibillion-dollar railway.

Narrative B

Norfolk Southern is committed to doing everything in its power to ease the burden caused by the East Palestine derailment, and it expects to spend nearly $2B in total costs. The railway disaster was a genuinely tragic accident, and the company stands behind everyone who was impacted. From investing in health measures to improve drinking water to directly compensating residents, Norfolk Southern hopes that it can come close to fairly compensating the community.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters will be at least 2.87K in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Just like his far-right legal rulings, Justice Alito's flags show that he is a judicial activist with a scary vision of the US and its Constitution. The upside-down American flag and the "Appeal to Heaven" flag were both prominent symbols of the Jan. 6 insurrection, and the Alitos' embrace of them shows their partisan allegiance to Donald Trump. While Alito may try to claim that the banners have nothing to do with Trump's attempted coup, all circumstantial evidence suggests that he should recuse himself from cases related to Trump and the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Republican narrative

Democrats and their corporate media allies displayed their ignorance of history with their hysterical reaction to the "Appeal to Heaven" flag displayed outside Justice Alito’s home. Instead of discussing the flag's significance during the founding of the country and its allusion to the words of John Locke, the left is trying to reframe it as a symbol of "insurrection." Like the pine tree adorning it, the "Appeal to Heaven" flag is a symbol of peace that is richly steeped in American history. The left's reaction is woke cancel culture run amok.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that there will be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court on January 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.