Pro-Israel narrative

The ADL, whose statistics not even the editors could show are inaccurate, relies on its credibility. This vote was taken due to a handful of statements made by Jonathan Greenblatt and subjective arguments about how pro-Palestine protesters should be labeled. While these topics can certainly be debated, the longest-serving defender of Jewish rights shouldn't be banned from Wikipedia over them.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The US government and corporate media have long protected the ADL, but since the Oct. 7 attack, ADL leadership has dangerously conflated criticism of Israel with antisemitism. Even before Oct. 7, it was known to attack Palestinian-focused groups. Given its recent bad-faith assertions targeting Palestinian groups, scholars, students, and anti-war Jewish groups, Wikipedia has made the correct choice.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 114K US Jews will move to Israel by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Given that OpenAI possesses some of the most powerful AI tools available, the fact that so many insiders have jumped ship over safety concerns should give the public a major pause. OpenAI has also replaced many safety teams with ineffective, rubber-stamp committees. It's apparent that AI is developing at breakneck speed and it's imperative to proceed with the utmost caution.

Narrative B

No one has better insight into AI safety than the industry leader in AI. As the first company to launch mass-market AI products, OpenAI has had the time and experience required to fine-tune its products and keep up with concerns. Instead of focusing on sci-fi dreams of a hypothetical superintelligent system, OpenAI remains committed to keeping the public safe in the real world.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the first general AI system will be devised, tested, and publicly announced by June 10, 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

International students, particularly in STEM fields, fill essential roles in the workforce, boosting local economies and addressing labor shortages. They account for a significant percentage of graduate students in electrical engineering and computer science, contributing to job creation and lowering unemployment rates. If Americans want a strong, healthy economy, they should support more work permits for these students.

Anti-Trump narrative

Proponents of Green Cards for foreign students are doing the bidding of greedy corporations, not the American people. Understandably, foreign STEM field students want jobs in the US, given that the same job in their home countries pays pennies to the dollar. However, they're still paid way less than an American-born STEM graduate. American college grads have just as much talent, and companies should put them first.

Narrative C

As November fast approaches, it seems that both presidential contenders are making big promises as they vie for the minority vote. However, with serious flaws in each of their policies—from Trump's about-face to Biden's failure to acknowledge an unmanageable backlog of undocumented spouses — it remains to be seen whether they will live up to these commitments given the opportunity.

Nerd narrative

There's a 22% chance that the US will phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

The Chinese assurance that Beijing will not offensively use nuclear weapons against Taiwan is good news. However, such talks cannot replace formal negotiations, and the reality is that China recently rejected US efforts to resume bilateral arms control talks. Moreover, Beijing's claim to maintain a no-first-use policy is increasingly at odds with its growing nuclear stockpile. To make the world safer, China needs to enter into basic negotiations to avoid the risks of uncontrolled nuclear escalation.

Pro-China narrative

The talks may be an encouraging sign, but the reporting paints a biased picture. It's the US that is fueling the nuclear race and engaging in nuclear saber-rattling to allegedly "protect" Taiwan. Moreover, Washington dismissed PRC calls for a no-first-use treaty between nuclear powers, while holding many times more nuclear warheads than China. Beijing remains convinced that the only way to avoid the danger of an apocalyptic disaster is through nuclear disarmament.

Nerd narrative

There is a 57% chance that China will reach 1K nuclear warheads by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

These polls, and ones showing Trump is in a dead heat with Biden in places that haven't voted Democrat in decades, are great news for the former president. Considering how he outperformed his polling numbers in the past two presidential elections, these results suggest that he's heading for a landslide win in November to secure his return to the White House.

Democratic narrative

There's plenty of time left for Biden to overtake Trump in the battleground states before Election Day. But the Biden campaign's message must change from casting Trump as an existential threat to democracy to an economy-based message that'll rally the Democratic base and sway disengaged swing voters who currently are leaning toward Trump.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Trump will be elected to be US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

A broken insurance and medical system in America has driven desperate patients to counterfeit weight loss drugs. Over 40% of Americans are obese, and they are being shut out by cost-averse insurers and a recalcitrant federal government, which treats obesity drugs as cosmetic interventions rather than medical ones. It would be much better to allow insurers and Medicare to negotiate for these drugs in bulk — prices would be driven down as generics and cheaper versions are gradually introduced.

Narrative B

Drug counterfeiting is a scourge that involves multinational criminals and middlemen who illicitly divert pharmaceuticals from the supply chain. This problem isn't due to the failures of insurers or manufacturers but to the poor enforcement of the law and bad policy. By declaring a shortage of weight-loss drugs, the FDA opened the floodgates to compounders, who began hawking drugs of varying quality. As these drugs have now entered the legitimate supply chain, expanding access would do more harm than good.

Nerd narrative

There is a 31% chance that an OECD country will achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Milei has pledged to fight the corrupt elite that has long ruled Argentina and clean house, so his odd decision to pick establishment-linked Ariel Lijo is both disappointing and concerning — to the extent that even his vice president, Victoria Villarruel, has questioned his suitability for the high court — because it goes in the opposite direction. While there is still time, the Argentine president must withdraw this nomination.

Narrative B

Despite being popular with libertarians abroad, Milei has already shown troublesome tendencies to populism and nepotism. Therefore, his decision to nominate a judge to the Supreme Court who has thrown out cases against politicians comes as no surprise to those closely following his presidency. After all, he is not even the first "caste" member that Milei has appointed during his time in office.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that Argentina will fully dollarize its economy before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

The far-left in France is acting violently to stop the rising popularity of the National Rally. Instead of defeating Breuil at the ballot box, their militant actions put him in the hospital. If RN is such a threat to democracy, why are its opponents the ones physically assaulting the democratic process?

Left narrative

All political violence should be condemned, but this news should not blind us to the dark future of France should the National Rally take power. In the wake of their EU parliamentary victory, RN supporters were seen violently attacking members of the LGBTQ community. If given a legislative majority, such attacks against all minorities will become dangerously commonplace.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that National Rally will win at least 241 parliamentary seats in the next French legislative election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Conservative narrative

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has once again proven he's soft on crime. And, even worse, Columbia's faculty is showing sympathy toward these vandals, who should face prosecution to teach them a lesson. Their defiant post-court press conferences proved they're in dire need of discipline.

Progressive narrative

Considering their lack of criminal histories, it makes sense to drop the criminal charges and allow the university to handle discipline. Columbia and the armed police overreacted to people exercising their First Amendment rights, and these people shouldn't have to be harassed any longer by the criminal justice system.

Left narrative

While a Winnett-free Washington Post is a good start, Bezos needs to step up and get rid of Lewis. The Post has a storied history of hiring the best and brightest journalists, character traits that seem to be missing in the current publisher.

Right narrative

The progressives at the Post are throwing a fit not over ethics concerns but rather over worry that Lewis, who used to work for Rupert Murdoch's companies, will lead a conservative revolt. As Bezos subsidizes the failing paper — which lost $77M last year — with his own wealth, the liberal newsroom should focus on writing better stories.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the Woke index — i.e. the frequency of woke words used — in US elite media will top in October 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.