Narrative A

Vaping is increasingly becoming a gateway for youngsters to cigarettes. Besides highly addictive nicotine, vapes contain dangerous substances like diacetyl, formaldehyde, and acrolein, which are highly harmful to the lungs and heart. Consumers must be protected from the tobacco industry's misleading promotion of vapes as being safe.

Narrative B

This vaping ban is misguided and overly harsh. Unlike smoking, vaping — an alternative believed to be less harmful — is heavily demonized. While countries like New Zealand embrace vaping as a safer alternative to smoking, Australia's approach — even with its October loosening — merely drives the market underground, making it harder to control and pushing people toward illegal purchases.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that a country will completely ban civilian tobacco consumption/smoking by August 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Given the current rate of progress, it's unlikely that the world will be able to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. With only six years left, world leaders must intensify their efforts to build a more resilient and abundant world. The UN cannot stress this enough — it's time for peace, dialogue, and diplomacy.

Establishment-critical narrative

Guterres has yet again sounded the alarm that the Sustainable Development Goals are off-track in an attempt to get more funding for an endeavor that has been doomed from the start. These imprecise goals are actually wishful aspirations with no sustainable development theory behind them. There's not even robust data to measure progress.

Nerd narrative

There's a 16% chance that there will be fewer than 375M people in extreme poverty by Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The formation of a coalition government is unprecedented in the young history of democratic South Africa and heralds a new era for the "Rainbow Nation," aimed at promoting unity and addressing the country's pressing challenges. This coalition is well-positioned to tackle poverty and inequality and will achieve rapid, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth for all South Africans. The ANC has proven its ability to overcome the shadows of apartheid for the benefit of its citizens.

Narrative B

The alleged "government of national unity" is nothing more than a charade essentially masking an ANC-DA alliance for which the ANC sacrificed its identity as a liberation movement. Equally worrying is that this cabinet has been enlarged at taxpayers' expense so that DA racists and neoliberals can be installed in positions of power. This government will not solve South Africa's woes, as the DA will only serve the white minority's interests seeking to destroy the fruits of the liberation struggle.

Nerd narrative

There is an 11% chance that South Africa will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US Department of Justice is taking firm action against Boeing for violating the 2021 agreement. That includes a fine of $487.2M as well as the imposition of an independent monitor for three years to make sure safety failures of this magnitude don't take place again.

Establishment-critical narrative

This is a sweetheart plea deal that fails to acknowledge the fact that 346 people died as a result of Boeing's safety failures. This is shameful and the families of the victims deserve much better than this. The US government has failed to provide responsible regulation here.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Boeing will release a new midsize aircraft, likely called the 797, into commercial service before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

If RN takes the majority next Sunday, it will be the first time a far-right party has controlled France's government since the Nazi's occupation of the country in World War II. The other parties must now do everything possible to prevent that outcome from happening.

Right narrative

Today's result comes after Macron and his ruling elite consistently turned their backs on the French public. If Bardella and his party are successful next Sunday, they will rule in the interests of all of France — making sure that the best interests of the country are protected.

Nerd narrative

There's a 42% chance that Marine Le Pen will be elected president of France in 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Abu Selmia's release should be the final nail in the coffin for Israel's justifications for its systematic destruction of medical facilities across Gaza. Though it's unsurprising that Israel lied about Shifa, Abu Selmia's release is a testament to the fact that Israel didn't have a single shred of evidence that he was involved with Hamas. Additionally, his account of torture at the hands of Israeli forces is more evidence of Israel's cruel policies toward Palestinians.

Pro-Israel narrative

There's no doubt that Hamas used Shifa as a terror base and to conceal hostages, regardless of whether Abu Selmia was involved or not. There's currently an unhelpful blame game underway in Israel regarding the release of potential terrorists. The goal of this campaign can't be forgotten — the elimination of Hamas and the prevention of another Oct. 7 attack.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that at least 500K Palestinians will be displaced from Gaza before Dec. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

This ruling isn't about legal interpretations or the rights of plaintiffs — the conservative majority simply wanted to give businesses the ability to sue the federal government out of existence. Now that agencies tasked with protecting our food, water, and workplaces are set to face an onslaught of right-wing lawsuits, it's incumbent upon Congress to codify the proper statute of limitations into law again.

Right narrative

The Administrative Procedure Act states that the six-year statute of limitations begins when "the right of action first accrues." Since the right of action is talking about the right of a plaintiff to sue for injury, that right can only possibly begin once a business is under the purview of the regulation. Even the Fed has acknowledged this fact, and it's shown no evidence that the wording of the law means anything different in this case.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the US Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act by September 2069, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Although the Biden campaign may claim it got a fundraising boost from the president's trainwreck of a debate performance, the Trump campaign has all the momentum. It's blown the Biden campaign out of the water in the fundraising department the past two months, and the polls are also in Trump's favor — including in reliably blue Nevada. Moving forward, Biden's debate disaster will surely slow his fundraising pace.

Democratic narrative

One night will not define Biden's campaign, and his biggest donors — and even his grassroots supporters — know he still has what it takes to maintain the White House. Already, Biden has been out on the stump showing the type of energy he lacked during the debate, which some polling shows might not have been as bad as it's being made out to be in some circles. Biden's not done and his fundraising numbers show it.

Cynical narrative

One thing many Republicans and Democrats can agree on is that there's too much money in politics. In fact, 72% of Americans polled say that there should be limits on how much individuals and organizations can give to political campaigns. And 85% of Americans polled say that the cost of political campaigns makes it hard for solid candidates to run for office. Biden and Trump must both realize that their windfalls are bad news to many of America's voters.

Nerd narrative

There's a 65% chance that Trump will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Climate change is believed to have played a role in Hurricane Beryl becoming the earliest Category 4 Atlantic hurricane on record. With last year being the hottest on record, ocean temperatures are reaching new highs every day, resulting in stronger and more dangerous storms occurring at times earlier than usual.

Narrative B

It's easy to blame any strong hurricane on climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with global warming. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 12 North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

As Trump already knew, the president can't be prosecuted for carrying out acts that are within the executive branch powers granted to him in the Constitution. So now everyone knows this, and the special counsel's case will be dead on arrival at the lower court. Trump did nothing wrong and the special counsel was enlisted to do nothing more than hurt the former president's current campaign.

Anti-Trump narrative

SCOTUS, with its conservative majority powered by three Trump nominees, has now guaranteed that no president — including Trump in a potential second term — will have any legal checks against potential criminal behavior. In effect, SCOTUS granted immunity beyond even what Trump's lawyers argued he had. This could push the US toward dictatorship.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.