Establishment-critical narrative

This visit is largely useless and should have been canceled before it began. While this visit was scheduled when the war in Gaza was front page news in the US, recent domestic events like the assassination attempt on Trump and Biden stepping down from his re-election campaign have overshadowed international news as well as this visit. Though the purpose of this visit may have been to bring attention and support to Israel, the opposite likely occurred, with boycotts against his speech happening in Congress, anger from the families of Israeli hostages about Netanyahu's departure from Israel, and large protests taking place in the Capitol and beyond.

Pro-establishment narrative

This congressional address was a strong symbol of American support and longtime alliance with Israel. Netanyahu's invitation is a sign of bipartisan unity amidst political differences, even despite the boycotts that occurred within Congress. Even though some US lawmakers may disagree with the policies of Netanyahu, his speech, and the response by American politicians emphasizes that this partnership is ironclad, and the US and Israel are unified in their goal of bringing home the hostages. This was a bipartisan show of support for the US' crucial ally.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be Prime Minister of Israel by March 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Republicans are clearly scared to face Harris in November, leading to their desperate attempt to challenge her right to the Biden-Harris campaign funds. From a legal standpoint, Harris is legally entitled to any campaign donation since she is listed on the ticket. Even if that weren’t obvious, there would be no way to block her from accessing the money before the election. The GOP will lose this challenge, and likely the election.

Republican narrative

The unprecedented ousting of Joe Biden has created many legal questions regarding the next Democratic nominee, which is likely to be Kamala Harris. Democrats sneakily tried to slap Harris' name over Biden's to secure $100M in campaign funds, but they are likely committing a campaign finance violation. Democrats subverted Democracy by forcing Biden out, and now they're looking to give his money to Harris.

Nerd narrative

There is a 43% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The protests prove that civil society can no longer be dissuaded by violence and threats from exercising its constitutional right to protest. Uganda is one of the world's most corrupt countries, and the brutal reaction to the protests reveals the authoritarian regime's fear of its own people. After Kenya, the wave of popular anger against corruption and misrule is now spilling over to Uganda — an encouraging sign that people are increasingly holding their governments to account.

Narrative B

The right to protest isn't unconditional, and the Ugandan authorities must protect the country's stability when unrest erupts. To plunge the country into chaos and bring themselves to power, sections of the opposition are working with foreigners, as they did four years ago. However, the government will not tolerate the country's progress being disrupted. Uganda is not Kenya, and most Ugandans are not falling for the empty slogans of those behind the copycat protests.

Nerd narrative

There's a 31% chance that Uganda will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Nepal has one of the world's worst records for aviation safety. Not only is this due to poor training and maintenance, but the country is one of the most challenging places to fly, as mountain peaks and rugged geography often surround runways.

Narrative B

The cause of Wednesday's tragic crash hasn't been ascertained yet, and it's unfair to blame all of Nepal's air tragedies solely on its infrastructure. The aviation industry and pilots must cope with extraordinary challenges in this terrain, which must always be kept in mind.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Boeing will release a new midsize aircraft, likely called the 797, into commercial service before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

In the years after the killing of George Floyd, there's still a dire need for police reform in the United States. Sonya Massey was a woman in distress, and the police utterly failed to protect her. The status quo is leading to senseless deaths, with systemic racism going beyond the officer who pulled the trigger. Radical reform is needed to hold police to account.

Narrative B

The video was shocking, but there must be calm if we want justice to be served through the legal system. Grayson is entitled to his day in court and a chance to defend himself from the allegations, and it would be inappropriate to jump to conclusions. It helps no one to give in to mob mentality and hasty judgments, and the rule of law must be respected.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that a large American city will fully abolish their police department before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Though the government faces billions of dollars in fresh compensation claims, it recognizes and acknowledges the abuse survivors underwent and is committed to addressing the report's recommendations. While previous governments had resisted holding such an inquiry, the Luxon government will do anything it can to address this decades-long injustice and ensure it isn't repeated.

Narrative B

Luxon's apology isn't enough. The Pope, the Archbishop of Canterbury, and heads of the Catholic and Anglican churches must also take full responsibility for their failures to safeguard the inmates year after year. It's a national disgrace that state and faith-based institutions abused and tortured hundreds of thousands of people for decades with impunity while New Zealand promoted itself, internationally and domestically, as a safe, fair country.

Narrative A

Kobayashi was warned about these side effects two months before recalling its deadly products. While the government's oversight was certainly less than satisfactory, the buck stops with the company distributing millions of these beni koji-filled products to the Japanese people.

Narrative B

Government regulators deserve just as much blame for allowing dangerous products to hit the market. These supplements aren't regulated as medicine, and when customers report adverse effects, there are no required independent third-parties to investigate. Companies motivated by profit shouldn't be in charge of policing their product quality.

Pro-establishment narrative

The leftist bloc may have agreed on Lucie Castets as their candidate for prime minister for now, but it's uncertain how long their coalition will endure as the Socialists and LFI remain at odds. Given that the Socialist Party is likely to soon break away from its radical allies and join a mainstream coalition, Macron is right to wait.

Establishment-critical narrative

Macron is on a dangerous path against both the leftist New Popular Front and the right-wing National Rally in a desperate power grab after his camp suffered a massive defeat in legislative elections. As he does so, he denies democracy and undermines the republic's institutions and the sovereignty of the people.

Nerd narrative

There's a 56% chance that French president Emmanuel Macron will call another snap legislative election before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Even conservatives — if they truly believe in free market capitalism — have to acknowledge that immigration is not draining the welfare system but rather helping cut back the debt. When immigrants come to America, whether legally or not, they end up working and paying significant amounts of taxes. Instead of blocking or deporting migrants, the government should encourage more people to participate in the American economy.

Republican narrative

One study on tax revenue doesn't outweigh the myriad of evidence proving that immigrants take jobs from native born Americans. When waves of immigrants come into the country, they move to up-and-coming cities, which means Americans who live there are driven out and those who planned to move there no longer have the chance. America is a nation of people, but those in power have chosen to ignore their wellbeing in pursuit of abstract GDP growth.

Nerd narrative

There is a 22% chance that the US phases out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Harris is wise to come out of the gates by directing her sharpest attacks at Trump and his "Make America Great Again" agenda. Recent elections showed that when Democrats made the risks of a Trump-led MAGA future the centerpiece of their campaign, they won. Harris should also tout her accomplishments and future plans, but staying on offense against Trump is important.

Republican narrative

Democrats may think they've discovered some sort of secret formula for defeating Trump by anointing Harris as their nominee, but the strategy for easily defeating her won't require much work. Trump will just have to highlight Harris' leftist extremism, in addition to her role in so many of the Biden administration's failed policies. She can attack all she wants, but she won't be able to hide from her disastrous record.

Nerd narrative

There's a 43% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.