Narrative A

El Nino, a climate phenomenon, is causing a severe drought in southern Africa, resulting in water shortages, food insecurity for millions of people, and wildlife deaths in Botswana and Zimbabwe. People are starving and urgently in need of humanitarian aid, yet foreign donors have not met the target established to tackle this catastrophe. The region is in dire need of international assistance, and donors need to step up their efforts immediately.

Narrative B

Climate change is known to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. It's established that droughts in southern Africa are caused by a lack of preparedness, inadequate response, mitigation, and risk reduction. With little to no planning for drought disasters like the failure of the main maize crop, the only choice once the crisis hits is to rely on relief efforts. Going forward better coordination and collaboration between governments across the region is needed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that before 2100, there will be a year period with an average global temperature that is >3.6˚C warmer than the 1880 baseline, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Invasive strip searches are a highly traumatic and humiliating police procedure. The practice not only violates personal dignity but also inflicts lasting psychological harm, particularly on young people. Addressing societal issues like poverty and inequality would be far more effective in reducing crime than these controversial and racially skewed policing tactics.

Pro-establishment narrative

While acknowledging racial disparities in policing outcomes, it's important to recognize that these issues are complex and not necessarily indicative of systemic racism within UK police forces. Top officials are involved in addressing disproportionalities, seeking to refine policies and practices. This reflects a broader societal effort to overcome historical biases.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% that the England & Wales prison population rate will be at least 128 per 100K people five years after Labour's 2024 election victory, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

What was supposed to be an enjoyable vacation has ended in the most tragic of circumstances. The yacht was in the wrong place at the wrong time. Condolences go out to all the friends and relatives of those who lost their lives.

Narrative B

Days before the tragedy, storms and heavy rains slammed Italy, following weeks of blistering heat that raised the Mediterranean Sea temperature to record highs — increasing the likelihood of extreme weather. The surface temperature around Sicily was about 30°C (86°F), generating massive energy for storms.

Pro-China narrative

All neighbors have disagreements with each other, but China and Vietnam both realize that they stand to gain much from a peaceful and harmonious relationship. Vietnam is entitled to forge its own path on the world stage, and it clearly sees the benefits of expanding trade with China. The PRC will always look forward to diplomacy with like-minded nations.

Anti-China narrative

As the territorial dispute in the South China Sea grows more intractable, Vietnam and China are putting on a good show for the cameras, as Vietnam walks a tightrope between geographic integrity and economic prosperity. China's continued aggression against Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, and others over their dubious claims are ultimately pushing their neighbors away from Beijing.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that armed conflict between Vietnam and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Harris and the Democrats will have an opportunity to flaunt their winning strategy with the whole country watching this week. She must contrast how her plan for the future differs from former President Trump's, and explain why she should take the baton from President Biden. The country is ready to get behind her.

Republican narrative

Everything the Democrats stand for is represented by their convention's host city. Chicago is one of the murder capitals of the country thanks to failed Democratic policies. It also has the second-highest sales and property tax despite a crumbling economy. Its schools are failing because they're run by the teachers' union. Plus, far-left anti-Israeli protesters will be highly visible. Harris won't be able to hide any of this.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

SCOTUS' tilt to the right continues with this decision upholding an overreaching injunction on a rule that is hurting many people from different walks of life aside from the obvious harm it's causing LGBTQ+ people. Steps must be taken to fill the federal bench with fair-minded justices who aren't as ideologically driven as those currently leading the SCOTUS majority.

Republican narrative

SCOTUS had to make this decision in order to block the idiocy of the Biden administration and its allies on the left. By maintaining the injunction, SCOTUS is saving women's sports from the infiltration of men who present both a physical danger to female athletes and hold an unfair advantage in competition. Hopefully, this injunction will become permanent.

Nerd narrative

There's a 23% chance that an openly LGBTQ person will be elected President of the United States by 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

With the clock ticking, the US and its allies are confident that after some tough negotiating, a deal between Israel and Hamas can be reached. A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, the release of Israeli hostages, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. The US will continue to work toward closing the gaps and ensuring that peace and stability can be restored to the region.

Pro-Israel narrative

Military pressure has only improved Israel's position in negotiations, and all the signs indicate that it can achieve its war goals with enough time and determination. Though Israel will do what it must to free those taken hostage in Gaza, it can't rush into a deal that creates a lifeline for Hamas. Israel will stand by its principles and ensure its security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

There's no indication that a cease-fire is on the horizon. Netanyahu has consistently sought to escalate the situation and prolong his political career, and, to make matters worse, the US is purposefully stalling for time and supporting Netanyahu's new demands. Indeed, the US has supported Israel every step of the way, including in its genocidal campaign in Gaza.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

This report provides all the evidence Joe and Hunter Biden have been influence peddling for years, just as Republicans suspected. It's sad that these crimes took so long to be exposed, but now the Biden family must be held accountable for using its political prominence for financial gain.

Democratic narrative

The GOP's translation of this report is more wishful thinking than a presentation of the facts. Biden's phone calls with his son only prove that he kept in touch with his youngest son after the death of his eldest boy. Republicans have wasted 20 months and reams of paper to prove Biden did nothing wrong.

Nerd narrative

There's a 27% chance that President Joe Biden will grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.