US Intelligence: Iran Attempting to Influence US Election Process
US intelligence agencies have accused Iran of carrying out "activities to compromise former President Trump's campaign" to "influence the US election process."
In a joint statement Monday, the FBI, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said Tehran's efforts included "thefts and disclosures."
Anti-Iran narrative
Tehran's sophisticated cyber tactics against the US election process blend direct hacking of government networks and disinformation campaigns. Iran's influence extends beyond cyberspace, embedding itself in media, religious centers, and political lobbies. This multifaceted approach manipulates public opinion, shapes policy decisions, and dangerously undermines electoral integrity.
Pro-Iran narrative
These allegations smearing Iran are nothing but disinformation, as Tehran has no involvement in the US presidential election and has never engaged — or planned to take part — in cyberattacks. The Islamic Republic only has defensive cyber capabilities to foil operations against its infrastructure.
Nerd narrative
There's a 72% chance that Meta will claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DNC 2024: 'America, I Gave My Best to You,' Biden Gives Farewell Speech
Speaking on the first night of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Monday, Joe Biden stated it was "the honor of [his] lifetime" to serve as president and that he "gave [his] best," dismissing claims he was "angry" at those who said he should step down.
In a speech that lasted nearly an hour, Biden described presumptive Democratic nominee Vice Pres. Kamala Harris as "tough" and "experienced," and called Republican presidential nominee former Pres. Donald Trump a "loser."
Democratic narrative
Pres. Biden's heartfelt speech was both the celebration of an illustrious career and a pivotal passing of the torch moment. While the political veteran's bittersweet exit from the 2024 presidential race was necessary for the future of democracy, this does not mean that Biden's service to America has gone unnoticed. It is now time for Harris to build on Biden's legacy and ensure that all that his administration has built is not lost under another Trump presidency.
Republican narrative
Having already been publicly humiliated during Harris's donor-led coup, Democrats chose to condemn Biden to one last moment of indignity as the president was cut from prime-time television. Biden's farewell speech to the American people was an insulting final chapter in the president's career, and yet another reminder of the smoke-filled rooms that hold true power within the Democratic Party.
Nerd narrative
There is a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
George Santos Pleads Guilty to Federal Charges
Former US congressman George Santos pleaded guilty to aggravated identity theft and wire fraud on Monday in charges related to his 2022 midterm election campaign. As part of the plea agreement, Santos will serve at least two years in prison and pay restitution.
Santos had allegedly used fake donor names and artificially inflated the size of his fundraising contributions during the 2022 election cycle. The former representative will be sentenced in February and faces a maximum of 22 years; he has waived his right of appeal for sentences less than 95 months.
Democratic narrative
This will hopefully be the last we hear from the convicted swindler for a long time, as his career remains emblematic of the kind of malaise that has taken hold in the Republican party. Santos was a serial liar and fabulist, much like their nominee, and the party failed to do any sort of vetting before allowing him to stand for election. The fact that he had a political career at all shows just how far the GOP has fallen under the specter of Trumpism.
Republican narrative
When the extent of Santos's duplicity was laid out in the House Ethics report, the lion's share of Republicans did the right thing and voted to give him the boot. The same cannot be said about the Democrats, with the corruption scandal rocking Sen. Bob Menéndez being a perfect example of their double standard when it comes to ethics. Republicans also need to go after the real rot in Washington with the same zeal that they went after the small-time Santos.
Nerd narrative
There's a 44% chance that Republicans will win control of the US House in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nicaragua Outlaws 1.5K NGOs
On Monday, Nicaragua's government banned 1.5K non-governmental organizations for allegedly "not fulfilling their obligations" in reporting their finances.
These obligations include submitting their income and expense statements per fiscal period and disclosing their donations as well as boards of directors' details.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is part of Nicaragua's autocratic government's effort to suppress people who draw the world's attention to human rights abuses in the Central American country. Ortega has engaged in increasingly repressive actions — including using terrorism and money laundering laws to crack down on nonprofit organizations — against journalists, intellectuals, and activists to quell dissent. He must be held accountable for the persecution of all forms of opposition, whether political or religious.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Nicaraguan government is committed to ensuring that NGOs follow state laws and contribute to the country's development in an orderly manner. Those outlawed are US-backed agents who carry out spiritual terrorism, obstructing the interior ministry's oversight. A crackdown against civil society organizations — which receive money from foreign countries to destabilize the country — is necessary to safeguard Nicaragua's sovereignty from neofascist and neocolonial governments.
Nerd narrative
There's a 29% chance that Nicaragua will experience a successful coup d'état before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia and Indonesia Finalize 'Significant' New Defense Pact
After working on it since February 2023, Australia and Indonesia have completed their new defense pact, which is expected to include joint military exercises, deploying soldiers to each other's country, and cooperating in the disputed South China Sea.
The agreement was announced in Australia's capital city Canberra by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who is also Indonesia's president-elect.
Pro-establishment narrative
Australia and Indonesia have a mutual desire to support sovereignty in Southeast Asia, particularly against PRC aggression. However, this is not an alliance or preparation for war, but rather an agreement to boost each other's maritime defense capabilities. Canberra and Jakarta are showing that while Beijing is welcome to increase its economic footprint in the region, any military action in Australian or Indonesian waters will be met with equal force.
Establishment-critical narrative
The West should not overestimate its influence in Southeast Asia. While Indonesia may sign treaties with countries like Australia, it's simultaneously cooperating with China on economic and defense issues. Jakarta has affirmed the one-China policy with Taiwan and is working toward building a security pact with Beijing in the South China Sea. As the US meddles in other Southeast Asian countries' affairs, Indonesia is aware of its need to broker its own peace with China.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by June 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Georgia Election Board Approves New Certification Rule
The Georgia State Election Board approved a new rule on Monday, by a 3-2 margin, authorizing any member of a county board of election "to examine all election related documentation created" during the election process prior to certifying the results.
The change also requires local election officials to meet no later than 3 pm on the Friday after Election Day to compare the total number of ballots cast and the total number of voters in each precinct before certifying results and allows the board to "determine a method to compute votes justly" if the figures can't be reconciled.
Republican narrative
These rules are common-sense solutions to the problem of citizens losing faith in the integrity of the election system. The only people who would object to a rule ensuring enforcement of the one-person, one-vote policy are those aiming to do something nefarious to the elections. Now Georgians can cast their votes with confidence they'll be properly counted.
Democratic narrative
These rules adopted by the board seem neutral, but — in light of the partisan makeup of the board and its members' ties to Trump — are obviously an effort to make it easier to delay or prevent certification of the results. Trump failed to steal Georgia in 2020, and his allies are trying to pave the way for fraud — disguised as transparency — in 2024.
Nerd narrative
There's a 55% chance that the 2024 US presidential election will also be considered fraudulent by the losing party, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Germany Upholds Conviction of Former Nazi Secretary
A German court has rejected the appeal of 99-year-old Irmgard Furchner for her role in the deaths of over 10K people as a secretary at the Nazi Stutthof concentration camp during World War II.
Last month, lawyers for Furchner — originally tried in a juvenile court because she was 18 and 19 during the time that the crimes took place — challenged whether Furchner was truly conscious of what was going on at the camp.
Narrative A
While administrative employees like Furchner are less close to the crimes than high-ranking officials, they still knowingly participated in them. In this case, providing administrative assistance to mass murder counts as serving as an accessory to mass murder, and Furchner must be held responsible. This latest ruling is evidence that Germany's justice system is working as it should.
Narrative B
These types of trials are important to keeping the tragedy of the Holocaust in our collective memories — but they are few and far between. The number of guilty individuals taken before German courts is merely a drop in the bucket of people who committed atrocities on behalf of the Nazi regime. It's time to consider alternative and equally promising ways of dealing with unresolved Holocaust crimes.
Blinken Travels to Egypt to Discuss Cease-fire, Gaza-Egypt Border
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Egyptian Pres. Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi in Cairo on Tuesday to discuss cease-fire negotiations. Blinken said while in Israel on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a US "bridging" proposal.
One of the main points of contention has been the Gaza-Egypt border — often called the Philadelphi Corridor — as Netanyahu has argued that Israel must be present along the corridor to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons into Gaza.
Pro-establishment narrative
With the clock ticking, the US and its allies are confident that after some tough negotiating, a deal between Israel and Hamas can be reached. A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, the release of Israeli hostages, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. The US will continue to work toward closing the gaps and ensuring that peace and stability can be restored to the region.
Pro-Israel narrative
There's no question that Israeli forces must be stationed along the Philadelphi Corridor to prevent Hamas from rearming. Indeed, Netanyahu made clear to Blinken that Israel's security is paramount and that a withdrawal from these areas would pave the way for more terror. Israel is willing to be flexible, but it's not willing to compromise its principles or its duty to protect its citizens.
Pro-Palestine narrative
There's no indication that a cease-fire is on the horizon. Netanyahu has consistently sought to escalate the situation and prolong his political career, thus why he added new conditions that he knows Hamas will never accept. Earlier proposals didn't mention an Israeli presence along the Philadelphi or Netzarim Corridors, but the US is now supporting these additional demands. While Palestinians face genocide, the US is only interested in supporting Israel's maximalist agenda.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that Israel will lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
World's Oldest Living Person Passes Away at 117
Maria Branyas Morera, who was born on March 4, 1907 in San Francisco, Calif., has died at the age of 117. She died peacefully in her sleep at a nursing home in the town of Olot in north-eastern Spain, where she spent the last 20 years.
She lived in other US cities, such as New Orleans, La., where her father wrote for a Spanish-language magazine, but her family moved back to Spain when she was young. She lived through the Franco regime and said she remembered the WWII Normandy invasion vividly.
Narrative A
Stories like Morera are likely to become much more common, with a projected 3.7M year-olds expected to be on the planet by 2050. For those who wish to be in that group, the advice of centenarians today is generally to be religious or spiritual, find a purpose in life, laugh a lot, and find love. Not only will this help you reach 100 and beyond, it will help you stay happy as you age.
Narrative B
While sentimental, anecdotal advice is nice to read about, there are concrete scientific answers as to why certain populations live longer than others. These areas of the world are called "blue zones," and their record-breaking populations come down to a few simple factors — particularly related to diet and exercise. This includes plant-based meals, losing weight, daily walks, and spending time with social connections.
Nerd narrative
There's a 31% chance that someone born before 2001 will live to be 150, according to the Metaculus prediction community.