Altman Joins San Francisco Mayor-elect's Transition Team
On Monday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman joined San Francisco Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie's transition team. He will work with nine other leaders with an eye to guide Lurie's administration with innovation initiatives.
Lurie, a Levi Strauss heir and philanthropist, will become San Francisco's next mayor on Jan. 8, replacing London Breed. As mayor, Lurie will confront the city's post-pandemic economic recovery as well as drug and homelessness issues.
Narrative A
San Francisco Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie is serious about shaking up the status quo. In order to achieve this, he has assembled a transition team consisting of prominent tech leaders and individuals with vast experience in managing the city. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, along with the other co-chairs, will help build the basis for the change that San Franciscans demand — leveraging his accomplishments in the rising AI industry.
Narrative B
Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie will be the first San Francisco mayor in more than a century to have no prior government experience, and he, like Donald Trump in 2016, is a political newcomer with very deep pockets. And, just as Trump has received backing from Silicon Valley tech moguls, so has moderate Democrat Lurie. Altman's foray into politics should be viewed as a concerning continuation of the growing influence of the tech industry on US politics.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Sam Altman will run for President of the United States before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Sabotage Fears After Two Undersea Cables Severed in Baltic Sea
Communication across two fiber optic cables running across the Baltic Sea was disrupted this past week, sparking fears they were intentionally severed by acts of sabotage.
The first cable to go down — a 135-mile (218 km) internet link between Lithuania and the Swedish island of Gotland — went offline at roughly 0800 GMT on Sunday, according to a Lithuanian subsidiary of Sweden's Telia Company.
Pro-establishment narrative
Reports from last year showed the presence of Russian spy ships in Nordic waters, the US has noted increased Russian activity by undersea cables in recent weeks, while only days ago a Russian vessel had to be removed from Irish waters. With tension between Russia and Europe at a historic high, it does not take much to assume this was Putin's doing.
Pro-Russia narrative
The news of these incidents comes only days after Russia warned the US and the UK were considering infrastructure attacks similar to what was seen previously with Nord Stream 1 and 2. Luckily, it has been announced that the cables will be repaired in a matter of weeks.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government will report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Putin Approves Russia's Revised Nuclear Doctrine
Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree revising the country's nuclear weapon doctrine, lowering the threshold for when first-use of such weapons can be deployed.
According to the publicly available document, scenarios in which a non-nuclear country attacks Russia with the involvement or backing of a nuclear state will now be considered a joint attack in which a nuclear response is possible. The same applies if a non-nuclear attack is deemed a critical threat to the nation's sovereignty, as well as that of its ally Belarus.
Pro-establishment narrative
Putin is sending a clear signal to the West by concerningly upping the rhetoric around Russia's use of nuclear weapons. In making such a move, he is hoping that Western nations will think twice before continuing to support Ukraine.
Pro-Russia narrative
These revisions to Russia's nuclear doctrine were put forward long ago and were approved as scheduled. This is unrelated to the US escalation of the conflict.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Over 10K Attend Farmers' Inheritance Tax Protest in London
Thousands have attended a march in London to protest the UK Government's recent policy announcement concerning inheritance tax for farmers.
Agricultural and business property inheritance tax relief will be capped at £1M (US$1.3M) starting from April 2026, with a value above the threshold taxed at 20%. The UK government has stated that, alongside other inheritance exemptions, a couple with farmland may apply to pass on up to £3M ($3.8M) tax-free.
Left narrative
Labour's decision to finally implement an inheritance tax on farmers is the right decision. Data shows that only the wealthiest of farmers will be affected, and the new rate is only half of what the average member of the public must pay when facing the inheritance bill. Wealthy farmers are in uproar only because their tax loophole has been closed — more money must be raised to fix the UK's broken economy, and complaints from the farming industry should remain at the Tories for their crippling post-Brexit policies.
Right narrative
The UK Government's plan to raise the inheritance tax on farmers is a stab in the back to industry. Having described the policy as "desperate nonsense" before the General Election and now attempting to mislead the public with dodgy Treasury statistics, it's clear that there is nothing Labour won't do in pursuit of its socialist ideology. Farmers are the backbone of British society, and unless the government rightly backtracks on this policy, UK farms will fall like dominoes and unrest will only continue to grow.
Nerd narrative
There is a 70% chance that the UK will have a Labour Prime Minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hong Kong Jails 45 Pro-Democracy Activists for Subversion
A Hong Kong court on Tuesday sentenced 45 pro-democracy leaders to prison terms ranging from four years and two months to 10 years under the national security law imposed by Beijing in 2020.
The defendants, including former lawmakers, activists, unionists, and journalists, were charged with conspiracy to commit subversion for organizing an unofficial primary election that drew 610K voters in July 2020.
Pro-China narrative
The national security law was necessary to restore stability after violent protests threatened Hong Kong's order in 2019. Not only was the protest illegal but these defendants continued to defy the law thereafter. These sentences reflect proper legal consequences for attempting to paralyze the government through unconstitutional means and distorted facts.
Anti-China narrative
This demonstrates how Hong Kong's civil liberties and judicial independence have rapidly deteriorated, turning peaceful political participation into a crime punishable by lengthy imprisonment. The fight for Hong Kong's true history and civic freedoms will continue despite China's attempts to strip democracy from what should be a sovereign island.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by Dec. 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Almost 100 Aid Trucks in Gaza Looted by Armed Men
The UN's primary agency for Palestinian refugees, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) said that almost 100 trucks of aid were violently looted on Saturday shortly after crossing into Gaza from Israel, the worst such incident since the war began. UNRWA did not specify who carried out the looting.
Witnesses reported that masked men armed with guns and grenades attacked the convoy of 109 trucks, looting 97 of them. The UNRWA blamed the "total breakdown of civil order" in Gaza, adding that it had "become an impossible environment to operate in."
Pro-establishment narrative
Israel's war against Hamas is surely just, given the atrocities the group committed during its Oct. 7 attack. However, Israel must take into account the innocent civilians in Gaza who are trapped between Israel's military machine and Hamas' terrorist fighters. Humanitarian aid entering the strip must be significantly increased, and the US will continue to push Israel in the right direction.
Pro-Israel narrative
The media continues to spread baseless lies of famine in Gaza. More than enough aid is entering the strip, and the real problem, as always, is Hamas. The terror group has worked to control aid movements through Gaza, harming the civilian population. If the US wants to help end the suffering of Palestinians in the strip, it must support Israel's goal of crushing Hamas.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel is purposefully facilitating the looting of aid convoys to exacerbate Gaza's hunger crisis. Considering that looting is the most prevalent in areas under Israeli military control and Israel's countless attacks on Gaza's local police force, it's quite obvious what Israel's intentions are. Indeed, Israel's genocidal war on Gaza continues unabated.
Nerd narrative
There's an 86% chance that de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025 will be contested, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court Blocks Counting of Undated Mail-in Ballots
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Monday ruled, in a suit filed by the Republican National Committee and the state GOP, that counties must stop counting mail-in ballots with missing or incorrect dates on their outer envelopes — specifically directing Bucks, Montgomery, and Philadelphia counties to comply.
This comes as Republican Dave McCormick leads Democratic US Sen. Bob Casey by 17,408 votes with 99.7% of votes counted and 24K ballots remaining. The Associated Press has called the election for McCormick, but an automatic recount has been triggered due to the margin being less than 0.5 percent.
Republican narrative
This is a crucial victory for election integrity and proper adherence to state law. Democratic county officials attempting to count illegal ballots were deliberately violating clear court precedent and election code requirements because of a result they didn't like. This ensures that only properly completed ballots will be counted.
Democratic narrative
The date requirement on mail-in ballot envelopes serves no material purpose and is just another form of Republican voter suppression. The technical requirement does not indicate voter ineligibility or ballot illegitimacy — throwing out these votes over minor clerical errors undermines democratic participation.
Trump, Musk Attend SpaceX Rocket Launch
US Pres.-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday joined Elon Musk at SpaceX's Super Heavy Starship rocket launch at the company's facility in Boca Chica, Texas. The rocket test was successful; the "Super Heavy" booster did not return back to the launch tower, which was possible, and instead splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico.
Reports of Trump's trip first emerged after the Federal Aviation Administration announced a temporary lifting of flight restrictions over his Florida residence and announced a temporary restriction for "VIP movement" over Brownsville, Texas.
Republican narrative
Trump's relationship with Musk is neither a political alliance nor a billionaires club. Both agree with the American people that it's time to gut the bloated bureaucracy, and Musk is the man to do it. The SpaceX CEO's record of efficiency at his own companies has even garnered support from Democrats and bureaucratic agencies. Today's successful launch symbolizes what he can accomplish.
Democratic narrative
This quid pro quo relationship should frighten anyone who believes businessmen shouldn't regulate themselves. Even some conservatives have warned about corporate-government intermingling due to the obvious conflicts of interest. Musk will undoubtedly strip the government of essential social programs while boosting his own business interests. This Musk-Trump SpaceX spectacle personifies the issue perfectly.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that SpaceX's Starship will carry a human to orbit by May 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Brazil: Five Officers Arrested Over Alleged 2022 Lula Assassination Plot
Federal police in Brazil on Tuesday arrested four military officers and one police officer in connection with an alleged plot to assassinate Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Dec. 15, 2022 ahead of his inauguration in 2023.
Retired Gen. Mário Fernandes, who served as an executive secretary in the administration of former Pres. Jair Bolsonaro, was the highest-ranked officer among those targeted in the arrest warrants.
Left narrative
Accountability for the failed coup is a matter of justice and is crucial for the future of the country's democracy. Given that military personnel and close aides to Bolsonaro were involved in this shocking assassination plot, something must also be done about the significant political influence of the country's military.
Right narrative
This is all part of Lula, a corrupt career politician, colluding with Brazil's heavily politicized top court to punish Bolsonaro and his allies. Right-leaning figures across the nation have been censored, and the legal system is increasingly being used as a weapon against those who dare to side with the opposition.
Nerd narrative
There's a 44.1% chance that Lula will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.