20 November 2024

Daily Newsletter

Los Angeles Declares Itself Immigrant 'Sanctuary City'

The Facts

  • Los Angeles' City Council on Tuesday passed a "sanctuary city" ordinance prohibiting the use of city resources to implement federal immigration enforcement. Los Angeles is the US' second-most populated city and, according to the council, home to 1.3M migrants.

  • Unanimously passed, the ordinance codifies protections for immigrants in the city's municipal law. Los Angeles was declared a "city of sanctuary" during Pres.-elect Donald Trump's first term but initially by way of a resolution and an executive order.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Los Angeles' decision to formalize its sanctuary city status is a principled and pragmatic response to the ongoing immigration debate. The city has reaffirmed its commitment to treating migrants with dignity and humanity. Sanctuary policies build trust between law enforcement and immigrant communities, ensuring public safety by encouraging crime reporting without fear of deportation. Los Angeles has shown that compassion and practical governance can coexist — a powerful rebuke to divisive rhetoric and inhumane political stunts likely under a new Trump administration.

Republican narrative

Los Angeles' sanctuary city move is symbolic rather than substantive, prioritizing political optics over public safety and fiscal responsibility. By formally shielding undocumented immigrants — including those with criminal records — the city burdens taxpayers while undermining federal law enforcement efforts. Sanctuary policies strain public resources and erode trust in governance as crime concerns mount among voters. Los Angeles' ideologically-driven grandstanding will backfire when it runs afoul of Pres.-elect Trump's widely popular immigration policies.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 756K immigrants to the US will obtain lawful permanent resident status in 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Biden Approves Sending Anti-Personnel Mines to Ukraine

The Facts

  • In another policy reversal to have taken place in the last weeks of his presidency, US Pres. Joe Biden has approved the provision of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, US officials briefed a number of publications on Tuesday.

  • The move follows the decision earlier this week to allow Ukraine to use long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, on Russia's Kursk region — previously rejected over fears of drawing the US into the conflict with Russia, as well as American stockpile concerns.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Unlike those mines that Russia has indiscriminately spread across Ukraine to devastating effect, the mines provided by the US for Ukraine's use will be "non-persistent," and will help them better protect their sovereign territory from Russian aggression.

Establishment-critical narrative

By his own admission, Biden has said the use of mines is reckless as they often harm civilians to a much greater extent than any military impact. Biden seems to have no problem contradicting himself when it comes to policy.

Nerd narrative

There's an 8% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Somaliland Opposition Leader Wins Presidential Election

The Facts

  • Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, also known as "Irro," the leader of the opposition Wadani Party and a former parliament speaker, has been elected president of self-governing Somaliland for the next five years. Irro is set to be sworn in on Dec. 14.

  • He was declared the election winner after securing 63.92% of the vote to beat incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi of the Kulmiye Party and third-placed Faisal Warabe of the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID) in a poll held last week.


The Spin

Narrative A

Once in office, the president-elect of Somaliland intends to engage in dialogue with the federal government of Somalia towards reunification — and that should come as no surprise as he announced that during his campaign. Voters in Somaliland had their say, and what they said is good news for many in Mogadishu.

Narrative B

If anything, this presidential election shows that democratic institutions in Somaliland are rock solid and further strengthen its quest for international recognition. Even if the president-elect and his party want to take a different approach, this by no means suggests that anyone in Somaliland is willing to give up independence.

Nerd narrative

There's a 19% chance that Ethiopia will formally recognize Somaliland in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Recognizes Venezuela's Opposition Leader as President-Elect

The Facts

  • The US has formally recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González as the country's president-elect, per a statement from Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday.

  • Posting on X, Blinken stated "[t]he Venezuelan people spoke resoundingly on July 28 and made [González] the president-elect. Democracy demands respect for the will of the voters."


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While the US and its allies have already criticized the Maduro dictatorship for election fraud, the Biden admin. has dealt a further blow to the autocratic regime by publicly recognizing González as president-elect of Venezuela. Despite speculation that Trump might be open to a softer approach towards Maduro, lessons from his first stint at the White House indicate that Caracas should instead prepare itself for a barrage of sanctions.

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite America's best attempts to claim otherwise, the interventionist Western regime has sought to meddle in Venezuela to try to overturn the legitimate win of Maduro in the presidential election. There must be no doubt that Venezuela will continue to push back against failed Western attempts to attack its sovereignty, especially now that the BRICS bloc of nations is offering a multitude of counter-hegemonic economic and political opportunities.

Nerd narrative

There is a 57% chance that if Nicolás Maduro is inaugurated for a new term in Jan. 2025, there will be a Venezuelan civil war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Trump Nominates Linda McMahon for Education Secretary

The Facts

  • US Pres.-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday nominated Linda McMahon, who co-founded World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) with her husband Vince McMahon, to head up his Department of Education.

  • McMahon, 76, led the Small Business Administration during Trump's first term and then became the chair of the pro-school-choice America First Policy Institute. She previously served on the Connecticut State Board of Education for about a year.


The Spin

Republican narrative

McMahon is a great choice because she'll finally take on the corrupt teachers' unions and disrupt the Democratic establishment's loyalty to groups whose interests prioritize bureaucracy over children. Democrats have allowed schools to fail as an excuse to ask for more money, but McMahon will dismantle inefficiencies in the Department and advance brighter futures.

Democratic narrative

McMahon is an atrocious choice to be in charge of DOE, especially since she's currently being sued for turning a blind eye to sexual abuse at WWE. Despite that, Trump is willing to destroy the DOE — and the special education funding that comes with it — because the McMahons donated to his campaign and are influenced by conservative think tanks.

Nerd narrative

There's a 14% chance that the fraction of American 24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 will be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Report: UK Parliamentary Committee to Summon Musk to Misinformation Inquiry

The Facts

  • It has been reported that X owner Elon Musk will be summoned to the UK's House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee's inquiry into social media, misinformation, and harmful algorithms.

  • Speaking to POLITICO, chair Chi Onwurah claimed that she "very much hope[d]" Musk would like to talk to the committee as he was "the most senior representative of X" and had "very strong views on misinformation, communication, free speech and society."


The Spin

Left narrative

Musk is only a champion of freedom of speech when it suits him, on the one hand spewing disinformation on his right-wing propaganda platform while on the other censoring pro-democracy dissidents on behalf of authoritarian states. While poking the bear may be dangerous, it's clear that Musk's incitement of unrest in the UK this summer went too far. The UK must stand up to Musk and remind the tech mogul that, despite what he may think, his words do have consequences.

Right narrative

The UK's crusade against Musk's free speech advocacy is unlikely to end well. The UK government's increasingly hostile approach to personal autonomy is self-evident, and their failed attempts to shut down the ultra-popular tech pioneer is a bad look. Committees can threaten to summon him and Labour activists can propose legal action all they like, but Musk has done no wrong for having a difference of opinion with Starmer's woke premiership.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2.9% chance that Elon Musk will hold major political office in the US before February 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Iran Offers to Cap Near Weapons-Grade Uranium Stockpile

The Facts

  • Iran offered to limit its enriched uranium stock to up to 60% purity — with 90% purity being weapons-grade — to avoid a resolution at the Nov. 20-22 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meeting condemning its non-cooperation with UN inspectors.

  • The nuclear watchdog has said in a confidential report that Tehran has already initiated the process, although shifting uranium enrichment from 60% to 90% is a short process. Iran has also reportedly increased its 60%-purity uranium supply.


The Spin

Pro-Iran narrative

Claims of Iran's nuclear threat are overstated. Tehran's leadership has consistently avoided suicidal actions, suggesting nuclear ambitions are more about deterrence than aggression. The exaggerated threat perception, particularly from Israeli leaders, often serves political agendas and limits space for diplomacy. Western powers must exercise restraint, as aggressive policies risk escalating conflicts and emboldening Iranian hardliners. Maintaining regional stability requires a balanced approach — containment through measured actions, not confrontation, coupled with openness to diplomatic solutions that address mutual security concerns.

Anti-Iran narrative

Iran's nuclear progress poses a real and growing threat as it edges closer to producing weapons-grade uranium, potentially for three nuclear warheads. The Iranian public, increasingly supportive of nuclear armament, sees such weapons as essential to deter external aggression, particularly from Israel and the US. With international inspections limited and Tehran advancing enrichment, the risk of weaponization grows. Regional instability — fueled by Tehran's proxies — compounds the danger of a nuclear-armed Iran, which could embolden its actions further. Together, this suggests Tehran might reassess its long-standing opposition to nuclear weapons.

Nerd narrative

There's a 57% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Trump Nominates Dr. Mehmet Oz to Oversee Medicare and Medicaid

The Facts

  • US Pres.-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday nominated celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, known as Dr. Oz, to run the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).

  • Alongside Medicare and Medicaid, CMS, which is under the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), manages the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. In total, it oversees the health insurance of 155M Americans.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Americans have long been contaminated by the healthcare establishment, which is why Dr. Oz is a great pick. He has spent his life publicly advocating for healthy living and after he and Kennedy are done with the bloated and inefficient health bureaucracy, these institutions will finally work for the benefit of the American people.

Democratic narrative

These Trump nominations are dangerous picks for US health leadership. Dr. Oz's history of promoting pseudoscience, unproven "miracle cures," and prioritizing entertainment over medical ethics undermines trust in evidence-based care. Conspiracy theorists and TV doctors should not be in charge of the health of 150M Americans.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 15.4% of the US federal budget will have been used for Medicare in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Study: Warming Oceans Strengthened North Atlantic Hurricane Wind Speeds

The Facts

  • A study published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate found that climate change intensified nearly 85% of North Atlantic hurricanes from 2019-2023, increasing wind speeds by an average of 18 mph (30 km/hr) and resulting in 30 storms reaching higher categories.

  • Of the 38 hurricanes analyzed, 32 were found to have been strengthened as a result of rising sea surface temperatures.


The Spin

Narrative A

This study confirms what we've long known — there's been a doubling of major hurricanes since the 1980s, rising sea levels amplify flooding, and slower-moving storms increase destruction. While non-climate change factors are also at play, governments must take these facts seriously and work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve infrastructure for extreme weather, and build communities to withstand worsening storms.

Narrative B

Climate change is not causing more hurricanes or making them significantly worse. Historical data show hurricane frequency has declined slightly since 1900, with no strong trend in increased intensity. While people are reasonably concerned when they see rises in destruction, it's important to remember that these factors are caused by population growth in vulnerable areas, poor infrastructure, and inadequate disaster planning.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 11 North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

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