Study: Warming Oceans Strengthened North Atlantic Hurricane Wind Speeds

Above: Hurricane Ivan just west of Grenada in the Caribbean Sea on September 7, 2004. Image copyright: Wikimedia Commons

The Facts

  • A study published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate found that climate change intensified nearly 85% of North Atlantic hurricanes from 2019-2023, increasing wind speeds by an average of 18 mph (30 km/hr) and resulting in 30 storms reaching higher categories.

  • Of the 38 hurricanes analyzed, 32 were found to have been strengthened as a result of rising sea surface temperatures.


The Spin

Narrative A

This study confirms what we've long known — there's been a doubling of major hurricanes since the 1980s, rising sea levels amplify flooding, and slower-moving storms increase destruction. While non-climate change factors are also at play, governments must take these facts seriously and work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve infrastructure for extreme weather, and build communities to withstand worsening storms.

Narrative B

Climate change is not causing more hurricanes or making them significantly worse. Historical data show hurricane frequency has declined slightly since 1900, with no strong trend in increased intensity. While people are reasonably concerned when they see rises in destruction, it's important to remember that these factors are caused by population growth in vulnerable areas, poor infrastructure, and inadequate disaster planning.


Metaculus Prediction



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