TikTok Denies Reports of Sale to Elon Musk
Social media giant TikTok on Monday denied reports that China was considering selling the platform to tech billionaire Elon Musk to avoid its impending ban in the US. This comes as Pres.-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering delaying the restrictions on TikTok.
TikTok faces a Jan. 19 deadline in the US to either sell off its US operations or face a national ban, after Congress passed legislation in response to security concerns over the app. The US Supreme Court is expected to rule on the validity of the new law on Wednesday.
The short-form video-sharing platform's spokesperson has already reportedly dubbed the Bloomberg report that Beijing is in preliminary talks to sell TikTok's US operations — either via a competitive process or an ad arranged by the government — "pure fiction."
Narrative A
Elon Musk's takeover of TikTok seems inevitable. With his close ties to Trump, which have secured him a key advisory role in the new administration, Musk holds the influence and political leverage necessary to secure TikTok's US operations, especially as the platform faces a national security ban deadline. His leadership of social media platform X and status as Trump's confidant position him as a unique potential bridge between ByteDance and the incoming government.
Narrative B
TikTok's resilience in the face of potential bans and political scrutiny in the US underscores its enduring appeal and strategic adaptability. Despite the looming threat of a government ban, TikTok's robust user base of 170M Americans and innovative content creation approach has solidified its place in the social media landscape. It will continue to thrive, regardless of external pressures or speculative deals involving figures like Musk. Its success is a testament to the power of user engagement and adaptability.
Nerd narrative
There's a 74% chance that a TikTok ban will be in effect in the US on Jan. 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Spain Plans 100% Tax on Non-EU Property Buyers
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Monday announced plans to impose a tax of up to 100% on property purchases by non-EU residents, who reportedly bought approximately 27K properties in 2023. The move comes as part of a broader housing affordability initiative in the nation.
The proposal is part of a 12-measure package that includes transferring 3.3K homes to a public housing body, increasing taxes on tourist rentals, and offering incentives for affordable housing rentals.
It also comes after months of local protests against overtourism in Spain's tourist hotspots, including Barcelona. According to Spain's National Statistics Institute, Spain received 10.9M international tourists last August — a 7% year-on-year increase from the same month in 2023.
Narrative A
Spain's housing crisis demands immediate action. Speculation by foreign buyers has driven prices beyond locals' reach, while tourist rentals deplete available housing stock and create unsustainable market conditions in major cities. It must be made possible for residents to find affordable housing.
Narrative B
This proposed tax would discourage foreign investment, potentially destabilize the property market, and represent just a drop in the ocean, given that non-EU purchases account for a small fraction of Spain's 26M homes. It will also create financial uncertainty that could harm the country's real estate sector, and therefore have knock on for Spain's economy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the EU will cease to exist by 2104, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Sierra Leone Declares Health Emergency Over Mpox
Sierra Leone declared a public health emergency on Monday after confirming two patients with cases of Mpox — who are receiving treatment at Freetown's Connaught Hospital — within four days. These are the country's first cases since the WHO declared a global health emergency in 2024.
The first patient, a 27-year-old from Western Area Rural District, had traveled to the town of Lungi between Dec. 26 and Jan. 6. The second patient, a 21-year-old from Freetown, showed symptoms on Jan. 6, however, neither case had known contact with infected animals or other sick individuals.
The Democratic Republic of Congo has experienced the majority of Africa's Mpox cases — accounting for approximately 70% of the continent's 49,933 suspected cases — and contributed significantly to the roughly 1K deaths recorded across affected countries.
Narrative A
The rapid implementation of emergency measures highlights Sierra Leone's improved healthcare response capabilities, which are built from hard-learned lessons during previous epidemics. The West African nation is now better equipped to contain the outbreak through enhanced surveillance and public health protocols.
Narrative B
The emergence of a more transmissible and severe strain of Mpox, combined with the lack of clear transmission patterns in the current cases, raises serious concerns about the potential for widespread community transmission. This is a concerning challenge — especially in a region with limited healthcare resources.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (Mpox) infections will be at least 33.7K in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Smith's Final Report Claims Trump Would Have Been Convicted
US Special Counsel Jack Smith on Tuesday released a 137-page report detailing his investigation into Pres.-elect Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election, asserting that prosecutors had sufficient evidence to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial if Trump hadn't won the 2024 election.
The Dept. of Justice (DOJ) released volume one of Smith's report covering the 2020 election investigation after US District Judge Aileen Cannon rejected attempts by Trump and his former co-defendants to block it.
The second volume, regarding the probe of Trump's handling of classified documents, is still being held back due to pending litigation. Cannon was the judge who dismissed that case in July 2024.
Democratic narrative
Smith and his team clearly stood up for the rule of law with this thorough, unbiased investigation. Trump is only being saved from facing charges by his election win and DOJ policy. The evidence against Trump is so damning that he isn't able to formulate a coherent response to it.
Republican narrative
This entire investigation was a politically motivated witch hunt by an out-of-control prosecutor. Smith's appointment was unconstitutional, and the report represents another attempt to interfere with the peaceful transition of power through false and discredited accusations.
Nerd narrative
There is a 0.4% chance that Donald Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: MI5 Declassifies Top Secret Files Ahead of Spring Exhibition
The British Security Service (MI5) has released more than 100 previously classified files prior to an exhibition at the National Archives this spring.
The release includes historical reports spanning from before World War I to the mid-1970s, communications between MI5 and the FBI, and investigations into the Communist Party of Great Britain.
Further details are also provided concerning the "Cambridge Five" – graduates from the University of Cambridge (Kim Philby, Guy Burgess, Donald Maclean, Anthony Blunt, and John Cairncross) who spied on behalf of the Soviet Union between the 1930s-1950s.
Pro-establishment narrative
MI5's declassified files offer a compelling glimpse into the shadowy world of British intelligence. These records reveal the inner workings of notorious cases like those of Kim Philby and Anthony Blunt — shedding light on the motivations and betrayals of Soviet spies. The files showcase the tension, daring decisions, and quiet resilience of MI5, bringing history to life with an unprecedented level of depth and insight.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Cambridge Five scandal remains a profound embarrassment for the UK, exposing deep flaws in its intelligence and elite institutions. Worse, newly released files reveal Queen Elizabeth II, MI5, and the establishment knew of Blunt's treachery long before it was exposed publicly in 1979. By shielding him to avoid a national scandal, they prioritized reputation over accountability — undermining trust in the monarchy and national security alike.
NATO Launches 'Baltic Sentry' to Guard Undersea Infrastructure
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Tuesday announced the launch of "Baltic Sentry," a new mission to protect critical undersea infrastructure and enhance surveillance and deterrence in the Baltic Sea region. The mission includes frigates, maritime patrol aircraft, and naval drones.
According to Rutte, more than 95% of internet traffic relies on undersea cables, with 1.3M kilometers (808K miles) of cables facilitating approximately $10T worth of daily financial transactions globally.
The initiative will integrate national surveillance systems with NATO resources and implement stronger measures, including possibly boarding and seizing suspect vessels.
Pro-establishment narrative
The increasing frequency of infrastructure damage in the Baltic Sea represents a coordinated campaign to destabilize NATO societies through sabotage, requiring immediate defensive action to protect critical assets and maintain regional security.
Establishment-critical narrative
Poor seamanship or accidents could cause damage to undersea infrastructure. Accusations of deliberate sabotage shouldn't be made without firm evidence, as hasty conclusions could unnecessarily escalate tensions in the region.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that Russia will annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hegseth Faces Tough Questions at Defense Secretary Hearing
Pete Hegseth, US Pres.-elect Donald Trump's nominee for defense secretary, appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday to begin his confirmation hearing, which was repeatedly interrupted by protesters who were removed from the chamber.
Meanwhile, over 200 Navy SEALs and veterans marched to the Capitol in support of Trump's nominee before dozens of them attended the hearing.
During the hearing, Democratic senators pressed Hegseth on multiple issues, including past statements opposing women in combat roles, allegations of sexual misconduct from 2017, claims of excessive drinking, and his support for service members convicted of war crimes.
Republican narrative
Hegseth's FBI background check came out clean as a whistle, crushing Democrats' hopes of derailing his nomination. Despite their attempts to smear him, the lack of damning evidence from even the FBI — an agency that's opposed to Trump — shows their allegations were complete lies.
Democratic narrative
Aside from the assault allegations, which should disqualify Hegseth on their own, Republicans are also supporting a man who lacks traditional qualifications for this position. The GOP decries diversity hiring but seems perfectly fine with someone who has no experience and has ties to extremist groups running an important part of the US government.
Cynical narrative
These petty political arguments are distracting from the actual dangers of men like Hegseth getting confirmed. Hegseth believes the Iraq War was justified, that Israel has a right to encroach further into Palestine, and that war criminals deserve praise rather than prison. Establishment politicians on both sides love this about him, which is why they're conveniently focusing on trivial matters.
Nerd narrative
There's a 47% chance that one of Trump's cabinet appointments will not be confirmed by the Senate, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
France: Prime Minister Bayrou Makes First Policy Speech to Parliament
François Bayrou, France's fourth prime minister in a year, delivered his first policy speech to Parliament on Tuesday, revising the country's 2025 deficit target to 5.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) while lowering growth forecasts to 0.9%.
The Prime Minister proposed creating a special fund for state reform, financed by public asset sales, and announced plans to reduce bureaucracy through streamlining administrative processes.
Bayrou, who is yet to pass France's 2025 budget, announced openness to renegotiating aspects of the 2023 pension reform that raised the retirement age to 64, giving social partners three months to propose alternatives while maintaining the current reform as a fallback.
Left narrative
Bayrou's strategy seems more like a desperate juggling act than a coherent plan, offering scraps to the left while eyeing far-right narratives to shore up his fragile government. Dismissing real pension reform without addressing structural injustices reeks of symbolic gestures that are meant to placate rather than resolve. This makes a vote of no confidence already a realistic option for the left to consider in order to drive real change.
Right narrative
Bayrou's speech, marked by lofty promises but little concrete action, underscores the establishment's growing disconnect from political realities and failure to address France's financial woes. Meanwhile, the surging popularity of National Front figures such as Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen illustrates the deep desire for change from years of faltering leadership and public discontent under the Macron regime.
Pro-establishment narrative
François Bayrou, a veteran centrist, embodies resilience and adaptability. His rise to Prime Minister marks an appeal toward consensus amid France's deep divisions. Rejecting elitism and populism, Bayrou seeks pragmatic solutions — navigating fractured politics with credibility as an independent mediator. His challenge is immense, but his belief in complexity offers hope for renewal and unity in turbulent times.
Nerd narrative
There is a 65% chance that French Pres. Emmanuel Macron will call another snap legislative election before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Trump Pressured Netanyahu Into Accepting Gaza Deal
Israeli outlet Haaretz released a report on Monday claiming that incoming US Pres. Donald Trump pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into accepting a deal that would see a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages.
The report alleged that Trump's Middle East Envoy Steven Witkoff met with Netanyahu last week to "force" Israel to accept the deal, with Witkoff heading to Qatar to finalize the agreement. Members of Netanyahu's government have called the deal a "catastrophe."
The Times of Israel also reported separately that Witkoff had held a "tense" meeting with Netanyahu, pressuring him to accept compromises necessary to secure a deal by Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though Hamas, in many cases, was the main obstacle to achieving an end to this terrible war, the Biden admin. is proud of its role in mediating. With a deal agreed upon, the hostages will return home and Israel will be more secure. Though Israel has had to make hard decisions, it will be worth it when peace is finally achieved.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though Israel wants nothing more than to see all the hostages released, this deal may not be in the country's best interest. In the past, Palestinian prisoners released by Israel have played critical roles in terrorist plots against the country. Indeed, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' slain leader, was a security prisoner released in an exchange deal. Israel may pay for this deal in blood many years down the road.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Though a cease-fire is long overdue, Gaza has been destroyed. Indeed, the Israel-Palestinian "conflict" is not over, and Israel's occupation and apartheid system will remain. However, this war has made clear that the Palestinian cause cannot be dealt with via security measures or normalization agreements between Arab autocrats and Israel. Regardless of what happens next, Palestinians will continue to struggle for their liberation.