South Korea's Impeached Pres. Yoon Arrested
South Korean authorities arrested impeached Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday at 10:33 am local time, making him the first sitting president in the nation's history to be detained while in office.
Earlier in the day, over 3K law enforcement officers scaled walls and cut through barbed wire at Yoon's presidential compound in Seoul, where he has remained for weeks, using ladders to overcome barricades formed by security vehicles.
Thousands of supporters gathered outside Yoon's residence, with some camping overnight, while approximately 250 protesters celebrated the arrest just 300 meters away.
Narrative A
Yoon's disregard for the legal process is lamentable, but his arrest is a triumph for democratic institutions and the rule of law in South Korea. It shows that no one, not even a sitting president, is above the law and marks a crucial step toward restoring constitutional order and democracy.
Narrative B
Yoon's detention is an illegal and politically motivated action that undermines presidential authority and threatens national stability. The investigation lacks a proper legal mandate, as the warrant was issued by a court without proper jurisdiction, making the entire process invalid.
Nerd narrative
There's a 2% chance that South Korea will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
SEC Sues Musk Over Delayed Twitter Stake Disclosure
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk in federal court in Washington DC on Tuesday, alleging he failed to disclose his ownership stake in Twitter within the required 10-day period after surpassing the 5% threshold in March 2022.
According to the complaint, Musk began purchasing Twitter stock in January 2022 and crossed the 5% ownership threshold in mid-March, but waited until Apr. 4, 2022 to file the required disclosure, during which time he continued buying shares at allegedly artificially low prices.
The SEC claims that Musk's delayed disclosure allowed him to underpay by at least $150M for additional Twitter shares, as the stock price rose more than 27% when he finally revealed his stake on Apr. 4, 2022.
Democratic narrative
The SEC's enforcement action protects market fairness and transparency by holding even billionaires accountable to disclosure rules that protect ordinary investors. The delayed disclosure caused substantial economic harm to shareholders who sold their stock at artificially low prices, demonstrating the importance of timely regulatory filings.
Republican narrative
This lawsuit represents bureaucratic overreach and harassment by outgoing regulators targeting a successful businessman over a minor administrative filing. The case lacks merit and focuses on a technical violation while ignoring more serious market issues, amounting to nothing more than a politically motivated attack.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance Elon Musk will become the first trillionaire, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Moves to Drop Cuba From Terrorism List
US Pres. Joe Biden notified Congress on Tuesday of his intent to remove Cuba from the "state sponsors of terrorism" list, stating that Havana hasn't supported international terrorism over the past six months and has given assurances not to support terrorism in the future.
This comes as part of Vatican-brokered talks that will result also in the gradual release of 553 people who have been imprisoned in Cuba on different charges, with reports that some of those arrested following the 2021 anti-government protests could be among them.
If Congress approves these plans, the US would ease restrictions on financial transactions with some military and government-linked entities from Cuba in place since the first Trump administration.
Republican narrative
The lame-duck Biden has decided to call for Congress to remove Cuba from the state terrorism list in an absurd appeasement move that further emboldens the post-Castro regime to repress its own people and destabilize the democratic world. Rather than America's national security, his goal is to shamelessly undermine the next Trump administration.
Democratic narrative
Cuba doesn't match the requirements to remain on the list of state sponsors of terrorism. With this 11th-hour decision, the Biden administration has finally followed advice from many world leaders, especially in Latin America, to help advance human rights in Cuba. This is a prudent move, and hopefully, the incoming Trump administration won't change course.
Establishment-critical narrative
The removal of Cuba from the US State Department's list of countries that allegedly sponsor terrorism is certainly great news, but this is just a first step to finally putting an end to coercive measures that have long caused serious damage to Cuba's population. It's long past time for all-out economic warfare against Cuba to stop.
Nerd narrative
There's a 9% chance that Cuba will experience a successful coup d'etat before 20240, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Tulip Siddiq resigns as Treasury Minister
Treasury Minister Tulip Siddiq has resigned following recent scrutiny concerning London property ownership connected to allies of her aunt, former Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina, as well as an investigation into an alleged £3.9B family infrastructure embezzlement scheme.
Four total properties where Siddiq or her family live or have lived were owned or gifted by political allies of the former Hasina government. Siddiq apologized last year for failing to declare that she was renting out another property owned by herself and her husband.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh's Anti-Corruption Commission has named Siddiq in investigations regarding alleged influence in a nuclear power plant deal with Russia in 2013, as well as claims about illegal land allocation near Dhaka.
Left narrative
While the Siddiq controversy is a self-induced blow for Labour, it’s vital to remember that Sir Laurie Magnus found no breach of ministerial standards. While this complex issue could've been handled better by both Siddiq and the government, these events don’t equate to corruption. Labour remains far better than its Tory predecessors, whose scandals were larger in scale and impact, while Siddiq's resignation reflects Labour’s commitment to restoring trust in politics.
Right narrative
Siddiq’s resignation was inevitable and long overdue. Her ties to Sheikh Hasina and the murky origins of her property holdings made her position as anti-corruption minister a disgrace. Starmer’s failure to act sooner reeks of hypocrisy from a leader who promised integrity. Labour’s double standards are glaring, and this fiasco shows the party's perpetual moral grandstanding was nothing more than smoke and mirrors in their bid to gain power.
Nerd narrative
There's a 66% chance that the UK will have a Labour Prime Minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UN: Over 1M Internally Displaced in Haiti Amid Gang Violence
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported on Tuesday that more than 1M people — over half of them children — are currently internally displaced in Haiti, over three times more than on Dec. 20, 2023, as gang violence surges.
This is an all-time high for displacement due to violence in Haiti, and inches close to the 1.5M people internally displaced by the earthquake that struck the country on Jan. 12, 2010.
Most of the displaced left the gang-dominated metropolitan area of the capital, Port-au-Prince — where displacement rose by 87% within a year — for overstretched rural areas.
Pro-establishment narrative
Haiti is at a crossroads. Time is running out for the international community to avoid a complete collapse of security and state authority in Haiti by either making good on its commitments to help the multinational security force operating in the country or transforming it into a UN peacekeeping mission. Otherwise, the country will head to a civil war.
Establishment-critical narrative
None of the US-sponsored neocolonial interventions in Haiti have been particularly successful, including the Multinational Security and Support mission currently on the ground. Neither this occupation nor a potential UN peacekeeping mission will address the plight of the people — only Haitians can achieve that.
Nerd narrative
There's a 62% chance that Haiti will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Says He'll Create 'External Revenue Service' for Tariff Income
US Pres.-elect Donald Trump said he plans to create a new government agency for collecting tariffs, duties, and other income from foreign sources on Tuesday.
In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said the proposed External Revenue Service will be created on the first day of his presidency — set to begin on Jan. 20.
"For far too long, we have relied on taxing our Great People using the Internal Revenue Service," Trump said. "Through soft and pathetically weak Trade agreements, the American Economy has delivered growth and prosperity to the World, while taxing ourselves. It is time for that to change."
Republican narrative
Americans have long suffered as a result of the country's weak trade agreements with other countries, resulting in American wealth being shipped off abroad. The creation of this new agency, alongside the imposition of a new tariff regime, will set these problems straight and make America great again.
Democratic narrative
Trump has already been widely ridiculed for these half-baked plans. Not only does he not seem to know that another government agency is responsible for collecting tariff income, but that he doesn't have the power to create a new agency in the first place.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Bolsters Indo-Pacific Ties in Final Days of Presidency
The Biden administration Tuesday in separate notices submitted three significant agreements to Congress in an attempt to strengthen relations in the Indo-Pacific and lessen Chinese influence in the region prior to Pres.-elect Donald Trump being sworn in Jan. 20.
In addition to a civil nuclear cooperation deal with Thailand, the administration is also seeking free association agreements with Palau and the Marshall Islands. The $7.1B agreements with Palau and the Marshall Islands will provide access to various US agencies' services, including disaster relief and weather forecasting.
These moves are a culmination of the administration's efforts in the region, which include the AUKUS security deal with the UK and Australia, enhanced cooperation within the Quad grouping, and strengthened trilateral cooperation with Japan and South Korea. The US has also expanded its security engagement with the Philippines.
Democratic narrative
What the Biden administration has done to solidify ties with nations in the Indo-Pacific, in the face of threats from North Korea and China, is amazing. At the outset, relations between the US and the region were at an all-time low, but now the one-on-one relationships have strengthened and the overlaps in those dealings have made the US and those nations more secure.
Republican narrative
The Biden administration shouldn't be patting itself on the back. While Indo-Pacific relations are important, they're miniscule compared to the administration's failures dealing with the Ukraine-Russia war, the war in Gaza, and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan — the latter of which was terrible for US standing and emboldened America's enemies.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that there will be a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
FDA Bans Red Dye No. 3 From Foods, Ingested Drugs
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a ban on Red Dye No. 3 from food products and ingested drugs on Wednesday, requiring manufacturers to remove the synthetic petroleum-based coloring by January 2027 for food and January 2028 for drugs.
The FDA's decision comes more than 30 years after it banned Red No. 3 in cosmetics in 1990 because studies showed it caused thyroid tumors in male laboratory rats, though the dye remained permitted in food products.
The ban follows a 2022 petition from health advocacy groups citing the Delaney Clause, which prohibits the FDA from authorizing any food additive found to cause cancer in humans or animals.
Narrative A
There's ample evidence that Red No. 3's use in beverages, dietary supplements, cereals, and candies may cause cancer as well as affect children's behavior. The ban is a crucial victory for public health and consumer safety, demonstrates that protecting public health must take priority over industry interests, and addresses a long-standing regulatory paradox where a known carcinogen was banned in cosmetics but allowed in food products marketed to children.
Narrative B
The available scientific information doesn't conclusively support the claim that Red No. 3's use in food or drugs puts people at risk, with the evidence linking Red No. 3 to cancer in humans limited. The FDA's decision was largely driven by the legal requirements of the Delaney Clause. This ban is an example of overly cautious regulation that could unnecessarily burden food manufacturers with costly reformulation requirements.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 65 drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Cease-fire, Hostage Release Deal in Gaza Reached
A deal securing a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages was reportedly approved by Israel and Hamas on Wednesday, though the agreement still needs to be approved by Israel's security cabinet, which is expected to convene on Thursday.
The deal will be implemented on Sunday, with Hamas telling people in Gaza "not to move" until the cease-fire officially comes into effect. Hamas reportedly will release 33 Israeli hostages in the first phase of the deal.
Incoming US Pres. Donald Trump announced the deal on his Truth Social platform, writing "WE HAVE A DEAL FOR THE HOSTAGES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THEY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY." US Pres. Joe Biden also hailed the deal on Wednesday.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though Hamas, in many cases, was the main obstacle to achieving an end to this terrible war, the Biden admin. is proud of its role in mediating. With a deal agreed upon, the hostages will return home and Israel will be more secure. Though Israel has had to make hard decisions, it will be worth it when peace is finally achieved.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though Israel wants nothing more than to see all the hostages released, this deal may not be in the country's best interest. In the past, Palestinian prisoners released by Israel have played critical roles in terrorist plots against the country. Indeed, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' slain leader, was a security prisoner released in an exchange deal. Israel may pay for this deal in blood many years down the road.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Though a cease-fire is long overdue, Gaza has been destroyed. Indeed, the Israel-Palestinian "conflict" is not over, and Israel's occupation and apartheid system will remain. However, this war has proved that the Palestinian cause cannot be dealt with via security measures or normalization agreements between Arab autocrats and Israel. Regardless of what happens next, Palestinians will continue to struggle for their liberation.