Germany: Merz Claims Victory, Scholz Concedes Defeat
Exit polls from German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF project that the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc will become the largest party in the next Bundestag, with Friedrich Merz now in position to become Germany's next Chancellor.
The CDU/CSU is expected to have secured up to 29% of the vote on Sunday, followed by the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) at about 20% — its best result ever — and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left Social Democratic Party at 16% — its worst showing since 1887.
The Greens are set to come fourth with up to 13.5%, down from 14.7% in 2021, and the Left Party follows with at least 8.5% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Free Democrats (FDP) and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance hover around the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
Narrative A
German voters want a right-wing conservative government to bring real changes, as the mainstream CDU/CSU and the nationalist AfD have emerged as the two largest parties in the Bundestag. That desire, however, will be ignored again as the CDU/CSU refuses to cooperate with parties other than from the left.
Narrative B
The rise of the far-right AfD threatens post-war values in Germany, so it's pressing that mainstream parties oppose any cooperation with them to prevent normalizing dangerous nationalist ideologies. Earlier this year, Merz broke that firewall to try to pass an anti-migrant resolution. Now, one can only hope he won't do it again.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Germany will elect a new chancellor by April 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Starmer Attacks Reform and SNP, Announces £200M Grangemouth Investment
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced a £200M investment from the National Wealth Fund for Scotland's Grangemouth industrial site during his address at the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow on Feb. 23, 2025.
The funding package includes 18 months of full pay for redundant workers, skills training support worth up to £10M, and National Insurance relief for local businesses hiring affected workers, as the site transitions from oil refining to industries like bioengineering and hydrogen energy.
Starmer emphasized cooperation between Westminster and Holyrood, while criticizing the Scottish National Party (SNP). Starmer said the SNP had "no interest in making devolution work," and had engaged in a "pact of decline" with the Conservatives.
Left narrative
Labour is leading the way in uniting the country and delivering for working people, from its £200M investment to secure jobs in Grangemouth to rebuilding the NHS and addressing poverty. While Reform's dangerous right-wing populism seeks to tear down the NHS and pander to Trump and Putin, Labour will continue to champion the values of liberal democracy and focus on a better future for all.
Right narrative
Labour’s reckless net-zero policies are destroying Scotland's jobs, especially in the North Sea. Starmer claims Labour is the answer, but under his leadership, the country is struggling. Reform UK offers real solutions – secure borders, more police, and protecting British jobs. While Labour clings to failing policies, Reform is gaining ground, standing up for working people and offering a true path to prosperity.
Nerd narrative
There's a 2% chance that Scotland will leave the UK before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Netanyahu: Southern Syria Must Be Demilitarized
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has demanded the complete demilitarization of southern Syria's Quneitra, Daraa, and Suweyda provinces, explicitly stating that forces from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) or the new Syrian army will not be permitted to enter areas south of Damascus.
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in December, Israel moved forces into the UN-monitored buffer zone established by the 1974 cease-fire agreement, establishing two posts on Syria's Mount Hermon and seven additional positions throughout the buffer zone.
The Israeli military presence extends across strategic locations from Mount Hermon in the northern part of the buffer zone to Tel Qudna in the south, with satellite imagery confirming the establishment of seven military bases.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel's military presence in southern Syria is essential for maintaining regional stability and protecting Israeli communities and vulnerable populations like the Druze from potential threats. Hostile forces will be prevented from establishing themselves near Israeli territory.
Anti-Israel narrative
Israel is exploiting Syria's political transition to make territorial gains, violating international agreements and Syrian sovereignty by establishing military positions in the UN-monitored buffer zone and conducting unauthorized airstrikes against Syrian assets. This is an occupation that Syrians will work to end.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that the US officially will announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Zelenskyy Praises 'Heroism' of Ukrainians on Third Anniversary of Russia War
Coming a day after the Ukrainian leader said he was prepared to resign if it meant the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised the "resistance" and "heroism" of his country on Monday as it marked the third anniversary of Russian tanks rolling across the Ukrainian border on Feb. 24, 2022.
"The third anniversary of the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion," Zelenskyy wrote on the X platform. "Three years of absolute heroism by our people. Eternal memory to all who stood up in defense of our state and our people, giving their lives so that Ukraine may live."
A number of Western leaders, including those of Canada, Spain, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, traveled to the Ukrainian capital for events to mark the occasion.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine has endured unspeakable horrors and an enormous amount of hardship as a result of Russia's unprovoked invasion. That's why numerous Western leaders traveled to Ukraine for the third anniversary of the conflict, stating that they're just as resolutely against Russia's invasion as when it first started.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia acknowledges the recent actions of the US in trying to understand the root causes of the conflict — facts that remain ignored by the EU and representatives of the previous US administration. Only when those root causes are grappled with can there be a real and lasting solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by Sept. 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Names Dan Bongino as FBI Deputy Director
US Pres. Donald Trump appointed Dan Bongino, a former Secret Service (USSS) agent and conservative media personality, as FBI Deputy Director on Sunday, marking the first time in the bureau's 117-year history that someone who is not an FBI agent will serve in this role.
Bongino, 49, received a master's degree in psychology from the City University of New York, served as a New York Police Department (NYPD) officer from 1997-1999, and was a USSS protective detail agent for the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations.
The Deputy Director position, which does not require Senate confirmation, traditionally serves as the FBI's second-in-command and oversees all domestic and international investigative operations, a role typically filled by career FBI agents.
Republican narrative
Dan Bongino is a patriotic veteran officer who knows the FBI should fight crime and protect America. After years of reporting on the FBI's rapid decay, culminating in the raid of a former president's home for political reasons, he now has the opportunity to rid the agency of its corrupt agents and restore its original mission of fighting real crime.
Democratic narrative
Bongino is the furthest thing from a nonpartisan actor. Not only has he said his "entire life" is "about owning the libs," but he's called for the outright dissolution of the very agency he's been tapped to help run. He's also made a career out of pushing election and COVID conspiracy theories. Bongino is a professional partisan whose far-right beliefs will now become FBI policy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90.7% chance that all of Donald Trump's appointments to the cabinet will be confirmed by the Senate, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Global Internet Shutdowns Hit Record High in 2024
A total of 296 internet shutdowns were documented across 54 countries in 2024, surpassing the previous record of 283 shutdowns in 39 countries during 2023.
Myanmar topped the global list with 85 shutdowns, followed by India with 84 shutdowns, while Pakistan recorded its highest-ever total of 21 blackouts, and Russia imposed 19 shutdowns including seven in Ukraine.
Conflict remained the primary trigger for internet shutdowns with 103 documented cases across 11 countries, followed by protests, job placement exams, and elections.
Narrative A
Internet shutdowns are essential tools for maintaining public safety and preventing the spread of misinformation, particularly during times of unrest or security threats. The implementation of such measures helps authorities control dangerous situations and protect citizens from the harmful effects of false information, especially with the rising threat of AI-generated deepfakes.
Narrative B
Internet shutdowns during elections severely undermine democracy by preventing citizens from accessing information and holding authorities accountable. In 2024, when 4B people vote across over 60 countries, these disruptions pose a critical threat. Recent shutdowns in Senegal and Pakistan demonstrate how governments restrict online freedoms precisely when democratic participation is most vital.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 78.9% of the world population will use the internet in 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Over 7K Killed in Fighting in Eastern DRC in 2025, Prime Minister Tells UN
Judith Suminwa, the prime minister of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), told the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on Monday that more than 7K people have been killed this year in fighting in the country's mineral-rich eastern region, many of them civilians.
She further said that more than 2.5K bodies were buried without identification and another 1.5K were still in morgues, warning that the security situation there "has reached alarming levels" and could spill over into neighboring countries.
This comes as UN chief António Guterres also pointed to the risk of a regional war in his address to the Council, as the anti-government March 23 Movement (M23) armed group — with alleged support from Rwanda — has captured the key cities of Goma and Bukavu in a rapid offensive launched in January.
Establishment-critical narrative
There's a new major war in the making in the DRC, and the West is ultimately to blame for it due to its complacency toward its ally, Rwanda. It's unacceptable that evidence of Rwandan support for ethnic Tutsi insurgencies has been played down for so long. Now, time is running short to prevent even worse consequences.
Pro-establishment narrative
It's undeniable that the international community must help find a political solution to this armed conflict before it's too late. That said, it's misguided and overly simplistic to point fingers at the West when deep-rooted regional tensions and the weakness of the Congolese Army are actually to blame.
Nerd narrative
There's a 61.1% chance that the Democratic Republic of Congo will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Admin Cuts Thousands of USAID Jobs, Places Most Staff on Leave
The Trump administration on Sunday announced that approximately 1.6K U.S.-based employees of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) would be terminated and most of the agency's global workforce would be placed on administrative leave.
Only personnel designated for mission-critical functions, core leadership, and specially designated programs will be exempt from administrative leave. Overseas staff will retain access to agency systems and diplomatic resources until their return to the US.
This follows a federal judge's ruling from Friday clearing the way for the administration to proceed with its plans to restructure the agency, rejecting arguments from employee unions about potential irreparable harm.
Republican narrative
USAID has become a wasteful bureaucracy that pursues woke ideological agendas outside its mission scope. It must immediately be restructured to ensure taxpayer dollars are spent effectively and are aligned with national interests.
Democratic narrative
Dismantling USAID will severely compromise America's global crisis response capabilities, weaken US soft power, and harm millions of vulnerable people who depend on critical humanitarian assistance programs worldwide.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that the US federal government will pass legislation by 2040 to provide universal healthcare for American citizens, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Federal Unions Sue DOGE Over Email
Federal employee unions have expanded their existing lawsuit against the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in San Francisco's federal district court, challenging an email directive as non-compliant with the Administrative Procedure Act.
The email, issued by the US Office of Personnel Management (OPM), was titled "What did you do last week," demanding federal employees list five accomplishments by 11:59 p.m. EST on Monday, with failure to respond being considered a resignation.
Multiple federal agencies — including the Pentagon, FBI, and State Department — instructed employees to not respond to the email directive. Others, including NASA and the Department of Transportation, advised compliance.
Democratic narrative
This email is an irresponsible and impulsive action from Musk, likely due to DOGE's failure to streamline the government. Instead of following the law and leaving budgeting to government officials, Musk is using scare tactics against federal employees who are simply trying to do their jobs in peace. Luckily, the real adults in the government — judges — are protecting the Constitution.
Republican narrative
The hysterical meltdowns in response to this email show how problematic the federal workforce has become. If this were a Chief Executive Officer requesting a brief update from his employees, no one would bat an eye. But in Washington, countless staff have gotten used to receiving a paycheck for little work. Hopefully, individual department heads will be inspired to check in on their staff more often.
Nerd narrative
There's a 72% chance that the majority of companies in the US will offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.