Trump Suspends US Military Aid to Ukraine
US Pres. Donald Trump suspended all military aid to Ukraine, administration officials confirmed to multiple publications on Monday.
The order to halt deliveries included all weapons and material currently en route to Ukraine or located at waiting areas in Poland, officials also confirmed.
Monday's development came after Trump's relations with Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared to take an even further turn for the worse, following last week's public clash in the Oval Office.
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump has been clear from the outset that he is focused on peace in Ukraine. As such, the US needs partners who are equally committed to that goal. This is a temporary pause in aid to ensure that any support given to Kyiv is contributing towards that goal.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine is profoundly grateful to the US and the American people for their support and commitment to Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians, as long as that peace is lasting and does not come at the expense of Ukraine's future security.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Donald Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Tariffs Trigger Global Trade Retaliation
US Pres. Donald Trump's new tariffs took effect at midnight on March 4, imposing a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico, while increasing existing Chinese tariffs from 10% to 20%, affecting over $918B worth of US imports.
China announced retaliatory measures, including 15% tariffs on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, plus 10% tariffs on soybeans, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, scheduled to begin March 10.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced immediate 25% retaliatory tariffs on $20.7B of US goods, with additional tariffs on $86.3B to follow in 21 days if US measures remain in place.
Republican narrative
These tariffs will help make America great again by enabling political and economic concessions from allies and rivals on the global stage, boost US manufacturing, raise tax revenue, and spur domestic investment all while addressing critical national security concerns related to drug trafficking.
Democratic narrative
These tariffs will disrupt successful trading relationships, violate existing trade agreements, increase prices for American consumers on essential goods like groceries and automobiles, potentially cause job losses, and damage the broader global economy through escalating trade tensions.
Nerd narrative
There's an 80% chance that the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Government Launches Anti-Migration Ad Campaign in Iraq
The Home Office initiated a digital advertising campaign in Iraq's Kurdistan region on Tuesday, featuring testimonials from migrants who attempted dangerous Channel crossings. The move expands on similar campaigns previously launched in Vietnam and Albania.
The campaign includes imagery of destroyed dinghies and testimonials from trafficking victims. One ad shows a destroyed boat and a witness account stating "people disappeared into the sea," while another testimony states: "I was promised a well-paid job, instead I was a slave."
Recent data shows that 2.7K migrants crossed the Channel so far this year, a 20% increase compared to the same period last year. Total Channel crossings in 2024 reached 36.8K, up from 29.4K in 2023 and down from a high of 45.8K in 2022.
Left narrative
This advertising campaign represents a crucial step in dismantling criminal smuggling networks and protecting vulnerable individuals from exploitation, while enhanced bilateral partnerships will help secure borders and stem dangerous Channel crossings. The UK will continue to build on its warm relationship with Iraq as part of the government's wider commitment to finally lower illegal migration.
Right narrative
Starmer's border policies are failing to address the ongoing crisis in the English Channel. While pledging unwavering support to defend Ukraine's borders, he seems to neglect the glaring issue at home, where over 25K migrants have crossed since he became Prime Minister. His lack of a strong deterrent is undermining national security and raises serious questions about his priorities as leader.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the UK will apply to rejoin the EU by June 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Half of Adults Will Be Overweight or Obese by 2050
According to a study published in The Lancet journal, the number of adults with overweight or obesity is expected to rise to 3.8B by 2050, representing about 60% of the global adult population.
The study found that the number of adults who are overweight or obese increased from 731M in 1990 to 2.11B in 2021, noting that eight countries — China, India, the US, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Egypt — account for more than half of this population.
The US had the highest obesity rates among high-income countries, with approximately 42% of males and 46% of females affected by obesity in 2021. Projections suggest these numbers will continue to rise.
Narrative A
The obesity epidemic represents a profound societal failure that demands immediate intervention through comprehensive policy reforms, including marketing restrictions on unhealthy foods and improved access to nutritious options, particularly in low-income nations where healthcare systems are already strained.
Narrative B
It's important to acknowledge that obesity is a complex medical condition influenced by genetic, metabolic, and environmental factors that can't be addressed solely through public health interventions. The focus should be on individual responsibility and clinical management through new treatments like weight-loss medications.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 43% of Americans will be obese in 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UN: Sudan Facing Sexual Assault of Children Amid Armed Conflict
In a report released on Monday, the UN children's agency UNICEF said that armed men have been raping and sexually assaulting children in Sudan since early 2024, with victims including one-year-old infants.
The sexual violence spans nine Sudanese states. Of the reported 221 cases of child rape last year, 66% of the victims were girls and 33% were boys, while 16 survivors were under five.
The ongoing conflict, which erupted in April 2023 between Sudan's military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has displaced over 14M people and resulted in at least 20K deaths.
Narrative A
Sexual violence in Sudan is being systematically deployed as a weapon of war, with the majority of documented cases being perpetrated by the RSF and allied Arab militias in a pattern of using rape to terrorize civilians and suppress opposition to their advances. With the ongoing conflict creating conditions that have increased vulnerability to sexual violence, the parties to the conflict must take steps to protect children and end gender-based violence.
Narrative B
Even if both sides have committed abuses in the war, the RSF is responsible for some of the most heinous atrocities being committed in Sudan. Hopefully, the armed forces will make territorial gains, end the war in the coming days, and lead the country back to democracy. However, the raging systematic violence will not cease until the US and UK publicly condemn the UAE's role in fueling the Sudanese war for political and economic hegemony.
Nerd narrative
There's a 51.6% chance that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) will come out as the victor in the Sudanese civil war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Scientists Create 'Woolly Mouse' Using Mammoth Genes
Colossal Biosciences has engineered mice with mammoth-like traits by modifying seven genes simultaneously, resulting in animals with longer, wavier, and lighter-colored fur designed to demonstrate cold-climate adaptation.
The research team analyzed 121 mammoth and elephant genomes, ranging from 3.5K to over 1.2M years old, to identify the genetic differences that could contribute to cold-weather survival traits.
Scientists used gene-editing techniques, including CRISPR, to modify genes controlling hair growth, texture, and fat metabolism, with one modification causing hair to grow three times longer than normal.
Narrative A
This is a crucial milestone in de-extinction efforts, highlighting the ability to recreate complex genetic combinations that took nature millions of years to develop. This could help address pressing ecological challenges and potentially reverse some human-caused extinction damage.
Narrative B
The project diverts resources from more urgent conservation needs — poses significant ethical concerns regarding animal welfare, and may also produce only crude approximations of extinct species that cannot truly replicate the original animals' behaviors or ecological roles.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the mammoth will be revived by August 2047, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Saudi Arabia and Lebanon Signal Major Diplomatic Reset
Saudi Arabia has agreed to review the "obstacles" to reinstating Lebanese imports, which were suspended in April 2021 due to drug smuggling concerns. Saudi Arabia was previously Lebanon's top agricultural export destination, accounting for 22.1% in 2019.
This came during Lebanese Pres. Joseph Aoun's first visit to Saudi Arabia since taking office in January, meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, the first visit by a Lebanese head of state to the kingdom in eight years.
The kingdom will reportedly also consider lifting travel restrictions on Saudi citizens visiting Lebanon, which have been in place since 2021 due to strained diplomatic relations.
Narrative A
This meeting shows that Saudi Arabia's diplomatic leadership is flourishing, signaling a new era of Arab unity. During just one visit, the kingdom yielded 22 cooperative agreements and offered Lebanon hope for economic revival and stability. Lebanon is clearly willing to make changes in the hopes of joining and benefitting from Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 initiative. It's now time for Israel to retreat its troops and let the Arab states prosper on their own.
Narrative B
This is undoubtedly good news for Lebanon and its neighbors, but Beirut must make security and economic promises clear before any deal can be made. The Saudis helped mediate a deal after the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, after which the terror group became more powerful. If Lebanon can assure the world that Hezbollah has no future in its country, coupled with some financial reforms, the proposals made in this meeting could come to fruition.
Narrative C
Lebanon isn't the only government that should be questioned here. While Saudi Arabia does appear to be shifting its image from violent authoritarianism to a global peacemaker, the Crown Prince still has a stained track record. From the arrests and assassinations of journalists to cozying up to Russia, the world must be cautious before welcoming the kingdom as a diplomatic leader.
Social Security Cuts $800M, Plans 7K Job Cuts
The US Social Security Administration (SSA) said it has identified $800M in cost savings for the 2025 fiscal year, including $550M from hiring freezes and overtime reductions and $150M from cuts in information technology (IT) systems, contracts, and grants.
SSA, whose efforts are part of Pres. Donald Trump's cost-cutting agenda, also announced plans to cut staff from 57K to 50K, marking a significant restructuring effort that "could include abolition of organizations and positions" or reassignments, according to the agency.
SSA is consolidating its geographic footprint by reducing regional offices from 10 to four, while also implementing a 70% reduction in travel expenses and cutting costs in areas such as postage, printing, and protective security services.
Republican narrative
Trump and DOGE are slashing Social Security waste, not benefits. If these latest staff and travel expenses weren't bad enough, this comes after DOGE uncovered millions of dollars in excess spending on payments to deceased centenarians. Trump's mission is to curb fraud and inefficiency, not touch your hard-earned money. The president is protecting Americans' retirement by targeting corrupt bureaucratic bloat.
Democratic narrative
While Trump may have promised to protect Social Security in the past, his faith in Musk, who effectively called for its abolishment by declaring it a "Ponzi scheme," shows he's going after more than just waste. DOGE's push to slash staff and close offices — paired with promoting Leland Dudek, who's under investigation for data breaches —signals an internal assault, not reform. Retirees should be skeptical of this administration's control over the SSA.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the US's total dependency ratio (i.e., the number of unproductive or dependent individuals divided by the number of productive individuals) will be at least 68.3 in 2039, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Arab League Considers Gaza Reconstruction Plan
The Arab League, which is made up of 22 member states, met on Tuesday to discuss a plan put together by Egypt regarding Gaza's post-war reconstruction. The $53B plan proposes rebuilding the strip by 2030 without removing its population.
The plan has been presented as an alternative to US Pres. Donald Trump's controversial plan to displace Gaza's population and build the "Riviera of the Middle East." A leaked draft of the plan called for a transitional technocratic government to take over Gaza alongside international peacekeepers.
The transitional government would be in place for six months and work "under the umbrella of" the Palestinian Authority (PA), which partially administers the West Bank and rivals Hamas. Hamas has said that disarmament, something Israel has called for, is a red line that it will not accept.
Narrative A
In contrast to Trump's irresponsible and unfeasible plans to relocate Gaza's population, Egypt's proposal may be a useful framework to move forward regarding the question of Gaza's future. Though the plan leaves out some important points, it ultimately creates a picture of a post-war and post-Hamas Gaza that would not be a serious security threat to Israel.
Pro-Israel narrative
Trump's negotiation tactics are bearing fruit, as the Arab states are now playing a proactive role in how to handle Gaza's post-war future. Still, the question of Hamas' presence in the strip and its weapons can't be avoided, and nothing can happen until the group is eliminated. Indeed, as always, Hamas is the most significant obstacle to peace.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Though a plan for Gaza's post-war future that does not involve the forced displacement of the strip's population is a good step, the Arab states must do more to support Palestinians. Before anything meaningful can happen, the war must end and Israeli forces must withdraw from Gaza completely. Nonetheless, the Arab states must work with Palestinians to build a plan and united front that prevents Israeli and US interference.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.