Narrative A

Rising rates of autism in U.S. children reflect a serious public health crisis that demands urgent investigation into potential environmental causes. The sharp increase cannot be explained by diagnostics alone, pointing to likely preventable factors. Identifying triggers such as toxins, pollutants, pharmaceutical exposures—guided by the science wherever the evidence leads—is essential for future prevention and targeted care.

Narrative B

The rising autism prevalence in U.S. children—now 1 in 31—reflects better screening, broader diagnostic criteria, and improved access to care, especially in underserved communities. This is progress, not crisis. Yet some, like RFK Jr., push alarmist claims and discredited theories like the vaccine-autism myth, distracting from the real work of expanding support, closing care gaps, and fostering inclusion for those on the spectrum.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the global mortality rate for children under the age of 5 in 2025 will be at least 3.48%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's tariff increases are akin to blackmail—an abusive and unreasonable act of economic bullying that unfairly targets Hong Kong's trading practices and forces residents to pay exorbitant fees for basic postal services. Hongkong Post will not collect any so-called tariffs on behalf of the U.S. as they don't comply with international practices.

Pro-establishment narrative

The elimination of the de minimis exemption is necessary to close a loophole that Chinese retailers have exploited to avoid proper customs inspections and import taxes, protect American industries, and ensure fair trade practices. Additionally, the duty-free treatment is being ended in order to combat China's role in America's synthetic opioid crisis.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by November 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

The transfer of federal land along the southern border to the military is a necessary step to combat illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and urgent national security threats. The designation of these areas as military installations will enable more effective border control and help prevent the entry of dangerous narcotics like fentanyl into American communities.

Left narrative

This initiative represents a concerning attempt to circumvent federal law and militarize the border region. It is a policy that treats the desperate migrants not as human beings seeking refuge but as enemy combatants and very likely falls foul of the Posse Comitatus Act, which forbids the use of the military in policing roles within the United States.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that the USA invade Mexico and acknowledge that invasion before January 20, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

During Witkoff's five-hour meeting with Putin, many of the finer points of a potential ceasefire deal were discussed—including the so-called five territories—and significant progress was made. Not only would this be to the benefit of the world at large, there's a possibility to reshape U.S.-Russia economic relations for the benefit of both countries.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Only the Ukrainians have the right to discuss the territories of their state, and the giving up of land to anyone—let alone Russia—is out of the question. Trump's representative is speaking out of turn by suggesting this would be a valid outcome of the conflict.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The Algerian consular official's arrest is as much proof of France's deliberate intention to disrupt bilateral relations as the former colonial power's support for Morocco's Western Sahara plans. However, Algeria is a sovereign nation and will continue to resolutely defend its dignity.

Narrative B

France must defend its sovereign interests and prevent the country from becoming a playground for foreign security services, particularly given Algeria's seeming involvement in the kidnapping of a political refugee on French soil and its refusal to cooperate on critical security matters.

Nerd narrative

There is a 9% chance that Algeria will experience a successful coup d'état before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-government narrative

The evidence clearly shows a systematic pattern of corruption involving multiple high-ranking officials and illegal campaign contributions through sophisticated money laundering schemes. The sentencing demonstrates Peru's commitment to fighting corruption at the highest levels of government, with multiple former presidents now facing justice for their crimes.

Opposition narrative

The charges against Humala and Heredia represent political persecution, as prosecutors failed to prove the campaign funds' illegal origin. Heredia's urgent need for cancer treatment in Brazil and her successful asylum bid highlight humanitarian concerns that transcend the legal proceedings.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Peru will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

The Trump administration's options are limited, given that the Biden administration left the U.S. a giant fiscal mess. Trump's tariffs will help bring manufacturing back to the U.S., boost the domestic economy, and address the trade imbalances that have led to overdependence on specific markets, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors. Trump's trade policy isn't a fiscal policy; it's a fiscal necessity, a detox for the overheated financial system.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's so-called America First strategy will make everything more expensive for ordinary Americans and small businesses. His protectionist measures will backfire by impairing global economic growth, disrupting supply chains, and particularly impacting vulnerable developing economies. Soaring U.S. tariffs and broader trade policy uncertainty would hammer international commerce, sharply deteriorate global trade, and potentially trigger a global recession.

Nerd narrative

There's a 70% chance that a recession will begin in the U.S. in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The Albanese government and politicians across the aisle are accepting gifts that create concerning conflicts of interest, prioritizing industry profits over public health, and ignoring overwhelming public support for reform and a parliamentary inquiry's recommendation for a comprehensive ban on gambling advertising.

Narrative B

The sporting codes protect their financial sustainability and the future of Australian sports, as gambling revenue represents their fastest-growing income stream and supports broadcast rights deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars. A blanket ban on gambling advertising online will destroy the industry.

Nerd narrative

There's a 40% chance that the Coalition will win the next Australian federal election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Van Hollen's trip left him utterly embarrassed as he accomplished nothing. Now he should answer for his shameless actions, as he's put in more effort to bring attention to the deportation of someone the government has classified as a terrorist than he's done to protect the citizens of Maryland.

Democratic narrative

Abrego Garcia was mistakenly deported without the proper amount of due process and he should be returned immediately to the U.S. Neither the U.S. courts nor the government of El Salvador has found evidence he has an affiliation with MS-13. The administration must begin to comply with the court order.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that there will be at least twice as many deportations by ICE in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.