Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
MetaculusNOV 2023
Peru's Ex-President, Wife Get 15 Years in Corruption Case
Above: Peruvian presidential candidate for the Partido Nacionalista Peruano Ollanta Humala speaks during the second televised debate round organized by the National Electoral Jury on March 30, 2021 in Lima, Peru. Image copyright: Sebastian Castañeda/Pool/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-government narrative
The evidence clearly shows a systematic pattern of corruption involving multiple high-ranking officials and illegal campaign contributions through sophisticated money laundering schemes. The sentencing demonstrates Peru's commitment to fighting corruption at the highest levels of government, with multiple former presidents now facing justice for their crimes.
Opposition narrative
The charges against Humala and Heredia represent political persecution, as prosecutors failed to prove the campaign funds' illegal origin. Heredia's urgent need for cancer treatment in Brazil and her successful asylum bid highlight humanitarian concerns that transcend the legal proceedings.