Appeals Court Temporarily Reinstates Trump's Tariffs
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit on Thursday issued a stay on a ruling that blocked most of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs in response to the White House's plans to seek "emergency relief" from the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS).
On Wednesday, a three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled against Trump's sweeping 10% tariffs on global imports, declaring that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president unlimited tariff authority. The new ruling temporarily reinstates the tariffs, while allowing the plaintiffs a week to respond to an appeal by the administration.
The lower court's ruling specifically halted Trump's worldwide 10% tariffs announced on "Liberation Day" and blocked separate tariffs targeting China, Mexico, and Canada that were justified under drug trafficking and immigration concerns.
Republican narrative
Trade deficits have created a genuine national emergency that has devastated American communities, weakened the defense industrial base, and left workers behind. The president must have the authority to address these critical economic threats through emergency powers, as previous courts have affirmed, notably in the case of Nixon's tariffs in 1971. Congress, not the courts, should determine the validity of an emergency declaration.
Democratic narrative
These sweeping tariffs represent an unconstitutional power grab that bypasses Congress' exclusive authority to regulate international commerce. The president's actions have triggered retaliatory measures, driven up prices on essential goods, and imposed unfair burdens on American families and businesses. Trade deficits that have existed for 49 years cannot qualify as an unusual and extraordinary threat under emergency powers law.
Nerd narrative
There's a 9% chance that the U.S. Congress will pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Elon Musk Announces Departure From Trump White House
Tech billionaire Elon Musk announced his departure from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump late on Wednesday. It came as his 130-day limit as a "special government employee" was set to expire later in the week.
In a post on X, which he owns, Musk said: "As my scheduled time as a Special Government Employee comes to an end, I would like to thank President @realDonaldTrump for the opportunity to reduce wasteful spending."
Having backed Trump's election campaign to the tune of $300m, Musk became a prominent part of the administration and led the newly created advisory board known as DOGE, or Department of Government Efficiency.
Left narrative
Musk's departure from the White House marks the end of a turbulent chapter in which he eviscerated government agencies and laid off thousands of people. Unfamiliar with Washington and how government functions, he accomplished far less than he had hoped.
Right narrative
Musk is one of the few people to realize and point out that unless the U.S. government becomes more fiscally responsible and cuts back its spending, it would go bankrupt and not be able to function. He deserves credit for bringing this issue to the forefront of the agenda.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance that Pete Hegseth will be the first member of President Donald Trump's cabinet to leave office, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
EU Trust Hits 20-Year High Amid Global Challenges
The latest Eurobarometer survey, conducted across 27 EU member states with 26,368 face-to-face interviews, reveals that 52% of Europeans trust the EU, marking the highest level since 2007, with young people aged 15-24 showing the strongest confidence at 59%.
Support for the euro currency has reached unprecedented levels, with 74% of all EU citizens and 83% of eurozone residents backing the European economic and monetary union, despite divided opinions on current economic conditions where 44% view the economy positively and 48% negatively.
The European Union has approved a substantial 150-billion-euro arms fund, responding to growing security concerns, with 81% of respondents favoring a common defense policy among member states — the highest level of support since 2004.
Pro-establishment narrative
Despite global upheaval and rising populism, Europeans increasingly recognize the EU's indispensable global role. Trust in the Union has grown while faith in national governments crumbles, revealing a profound truth; in an era of transnational challenges — from climate change to AI — Europe's strength lies not in fragmented nationalism but in unified action.
Establishment-critical narrative
The latest Eurobarometer poll may try to paint a picture of unity, but it cannot conceal the rising tide of rebellion across Europe. From Paris to Budapest, patriotic and conservative forces are surging, rejecting EU overreach, mass migration, and elite arrogance. Brussels may cling to its illusions, but the people are awake, and they are taking Europe back.
Nerd narrative
There is an 11% chance that any country will trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China Launches Asteroid Sample Return Mission
China's space agency launched the Tianwen-2 probe aboard a Long March 3B rocket from Xichang Satellite Launch Center on Thursday at 1:31 a.m. local time, marking the country's first mission to collect asteroid samples.
It will take around a year to reach Kamo'oalewa, a near-Earth asteroid that scientists believe may be a moon fragment. Japan's Hayabusa mission was reportedly the first mission to successfully retrieve samples from an asteroid.
After collecting samples using techniques like touch-and-go, hovering, and attachment sampling, the mission will return them to Earth by late 2027, potentially making China the third nation to retrieve such material.
Pro-China narrative
China's Tianwen-2 marks a staggering leap in deep-space exploration — precise, bold, and visionary. From Mars to asteroids, China now leads with ambition and technical prowess. If humanity is to thrive beyond Earth, the U.S. and its allies must set aside rivalry and reawaken the spirit of Apollo-Soyuz. The cosmos demands collaboration, not Cold War repetition.
Anti-China narrative
China's breakneck advances in space — the asteroid probe and sampling mission being its latest — should alarm the West. Behind the facade of exploration lies a state-driven machine weaponizing space, outpacing the U.S. With counter-space weapons, lunar ambitions, and militarized policy, Beijing is not in a race — it's preparing for dominance. The U.S. must wake up.
Nerd narrative
There is a 32% chance China will land the next person on the Moon, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Carney Announces Intention to Join ReArm Europe
Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday declared his intention for Canada to join ReArm Europe by July 1 in an effort to reduce Canada's reliance on the U.S. for military equipment, with 75% of Canadian defense capital spending currently going to American suppliers.
ReArm Europe is a European Union defense initiative that aims to raise €800 billion ($902 billion) by 2030 to support a wide range of military capabilities, including air and missile defense, artillery and drone systems, as well as cyber and electronic warfare.
The Liberal government first announced that it would seek to join ReArm Europe to "invest in transatlantic security" during the Speech from the Throne, which was delivered by King Charles III.
Liberal Party narrative
The current allocation of Canadian capital defense spending does not align with Canada's national interest. By investing 75 cents out of every dollar in U.S. suppliers, Canada has become overly reliant on American manufacturers and the temperament of the U.S. government for its security. To remedy this, Canada must diversify its procurement, and ReArm Europe represents a perfect opportunity to do so.
Pro-Trump narrative
Canada's decision to foster close defense ties with Europe and, in turn, spurn the U.S. is a big mistake. Instead, Canada would be better off investing more money, not less, in American military equipment. That would strengthen Canada's defense and rectify the country's trade balance with the U.S., immediately addressing President Trump's two main concerns and repairing the relationship between the two nations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that at least part of Canada will become a U.S. state before January 21, 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
World Food Programme Warehouse in Gaza Looted
The U.N.'s World Food Programme (WFP) said that "hordes of hungry people" broke into a food supply warehouse in central Gaza on Wednesday, with hospital staff reporting at least four deaths. Gunshots can be heard in footage from the incident. Aid trucks were also looted.
Israel has repeatedly claimed that Hamas is responsible for looting aid trucks and warehouses. However, the WFP has said that looting has been carried out by "desperate" and "starving" Palestinians, calling on Israel to allow more aid into the strip.
Other reports have alleged that armed gangs not affiliated with Hamas have been largely responsible for the looting. Israeli media claimed earlier this week that an internal Israeli military report said that, of 110 looting incidents, none were carried out by Hamas.
Pro-establishment narrative
The return to war will not save the hostages. Furthermore, Israel's aid distribution plans are already proving to be ineffective and problematic. Allowing in a token amount of aid will not significantly improve the humanitarian situation. Indeed, both sides need to make concessions so that the ceasefire can be fully implemented and the hostages are returned.
Pro-Israel narrative
In contrast to the ludicrous claims made by pro-Hamas activists, Hamas has systematically stolen aid and caused Gaza's humanitarian crisis. Israel has even released video evidence of Hamas members looting aid trucks, yet international agencies continue to falsely claim that Hamas is not involved. Since day one, the primary driver of Gaza's suffering is Hamas.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel has consistently facilitated the looting of aid to exasperate Gaza's hunger crisis then blaming Hamas for a crisis it created. Considering that looting is the most prevalent in areas under Israeli military control and Israel's countless attacks on Gaza's local police force, it is quite obvious what Israel's intentions are. Indeed, Israel's genocidal war on Gaza continues unabated.
Canada: Manitoba Declares Emergency as Wildfires Force 17,000 to Evacuate
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew declared a province-wide state of emergency on Wednesday evening as multiple wildfires forced the evacuation of approximately 17,000 residents from northern communities.
The evacuation orders affect several communities including the city of Flin Flon with 5,000 residents, with most evacuees directed to emergency shelters in Winnipeg's indoor soccer fields and arenas.
The Manitoba Wildfire Service has reported 22 active fires, with several fires “out of control” due to wind and drought. The wildfire service has recorded 102 fires so far this year — above the five-year average of 78 for this time in the season.
Pro-government narrative
The Manitoba government swiftly declared a state of emergency, mobilizing resources to protect thousands fleeing unprecedented wildfires. Winnipeg has opened multiple reception centers, staffed by Emergency Social Services and the Red Cross, providing safe shelter and vital support. Together, government and community stand united — acting decisively to keep families safe and resilient in this crisis.
Government-critical narrative
Remote communities are being left vulnerable due to insufficient provincial resources and support. Critical firefighting equipment and personnel are stretched thin, with some areas like Sherridon having only local firefighters and sprinkler systems as their sole defense against massive fires. The lack of water bombers and proper equipment has left many communities exposed to potentially catastrophic damage.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that wildfires will destroy a total exceeding 10 million hectares of global tree cover in any year before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Admin Cancels $766M Moderna Bird Flu Vaccine Contract
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on Wednesday terminated a $766 million contract with Moderna for developing an mRNA-based vaccine against potential pandemic viruses, including H5N1 bird flu, which included $176 million awarded in July 2024 and $590 million in January 2025.
The cancellation came as Moderna announced positive interim results from an early-stage trial involving 300 healthy adults. The company said it would "explore alternative paths forward for the program."
An HHS spokesperson said that the decision followed a "rigorous review" and cited concerns about mRNA technology being under-tested and emphasizing the need for stronger safety standards.
Republican narrative
This decision shows HHS is returning to rigorous scientific standards and transparent safety protocols, which it lacked under the Biden administration. It signals a commitment to thorough, independently verifiable evaluations rather than the speed-driven development that caused public distrust during the COVID-19 pandemic. Stronger safety thresholds and detailed long-term data should be non-negotiable.
Democratic narrative
This is a politically motivated decision that puts American lives at risk and undermines crucial pandemic preparedness efforts. The attack on mRNA technology contradicts scientific evidence, as these vaccines have been administered billions of times worldwide with proven safety and efficacy. If bird flu begins spreading between humans, this short-sighted decision will have grave consequences.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the CDC will report 163 cases of H5 bird flu in the United States between 2024 and 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Last Grandson of 10th US President Dies, Ending Unique Historic Link
Harrison Ruffin Tyler, the last living grandson of President John Tyler who served from 1841 to 1845, died on Sunday evening at age 96, marking the end of a generational connection spanning from the 18th century to modern America.
The family lineage was possible due to two generations of late-life marriages — President Tyler was 63 when Lyon Gardiner Tyler was born, and Lyon was 75 when Harrison entered the world in 1928, creating a direct link to a president born in 1790.
Despite modest beginnings during the Great Depression, Tyler co-founded ChemTreat, an industrial water treatment company, in 1968, which grew to serve major clients like Kraft Foods and Philip Morris before being acquired by Danaher Corporation.
Narrative A
John Tyler’s immediate lineage, with a grandson living until recently, is chronologically fascinating, but his legacy is marred by political failures and racism. His stubbornness, while setting a precedent for a fully empowered vice-presidential succession, led to ineffective governance, alienating his own party. A slave-owning states' rights advocate, Tyler was also out of touch with a changing America and later supported the Confederacy, betraying his nation.
Narrative B
While modern perspectives condemn John Tyler for his racism and Confederate ties, such disdain oversimplifies a complex historical figure. His commitment to states' rights and constitutional principles, rooted in his era's context, deserves nuanced respect. Like many in civil wars — English, American Revolution, or Civil War — Tyler's choices reflected his cultural and political reality, not just a moral failing. Judging him solely through today's lens distorts history.
Nerd narrative
There is a 45% chance that the Confederate monument on Georgia's Stone Mountain will be defaced or destroyed before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.