US, China Agree on Trade Framework After London Talks
U.S. and Chinese officials reached a framework agreement on Tuesday, following two days of high-level trade negotiations in London. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated the deal is expected to address China's export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets.
The framework aims to implement the Geneva trade agreement reached in May, in which both countries agreed to a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs and a rollback of certain trade measures before tensions escalated over rare earth exports and semiconductor restrictions.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent departed the London talks early to testify before Congress, while Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer continued negotiations with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.
Pro-Trump narrative
President Trump just scored a massive win for American workers and industry. The China deal delivers rare earths on U.S. terms, imposes 55% tariffs on Chinese goods, and maintains a strong, cooperative relationship with China while reasserting U.S. leverage in global trade. This is Trump at his best — tough, strategic, and unapologetically pro-America. The ripple effects will supercharge the economy and redefine U.S. dominance in global trade.
Anti-Trump narrative
The newly announced framework may signal progress, but it stops short of resolving the deep-rooted structural issues that have long plagued U.S.-China trade. Without clear commitments or enforcement mechanisms, it risks becoming yet another temporary pause rather than a lasting solution. Markets remain cautious, noting that trust is fragile — and tariffs are likely to remain high regardless.
Pro-China narrative
China and the U.S. can and should resolve trade disputes with constructive dialogue. With candidness and openness, the China-U.S. relationship can be mended and moved forward. Beijing truly believes that mutual cooperation is a win-win for all sides.
Narrative D
In today's interconnected global economy, the U.S. and China need each other — plain and simple. The new trade framework hammered out in London reflects this mutual dependence. America relies on critical Chinese resources, such as rare earths, while China depends on U.S. technology and market access. This deal isn't just diplomacy — it's a recognition that shared prosperity demands cooperation.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that there will be an active war between the U.S. and China before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
At Least 7 Dead as Colombia Hit with Bombings, Gun Attacks
A series of coordinated bomb and gun attacks across Cali and nearby towns in southwestern Colombia killed at least seven people and injured over 50 others on Tuesday. Authorities attributed the violence to a FARC dissident group.
The attacks targeted police stations, municipal buildings, and civilian areas using car bombs, motorcycle bombs, rifle fire, and suspected drone strikes. Colombian National Police reported more than 20 terrorist incidents throughout the day.
Military and police officials blamed the FARC-EMC faction led by Nestor Gregorio Vera, alias Ivan Mordisco. While the EMC warned civilians to stay away from military and police posts on Tuesday, they have not claimed responsibility for the attacks.
Pro-government narrative
This is a desperate escalation by criminal groups trying to pressure the government into making concessions and abandoning military operations against them. The timing shows these organizations want to destabilize Colombia and return the country to the dark days of the 1980s when violence ruled. The government must respond with decisive action to protect citizens and maintain order.
Government-critical narrative
The surge in violence reflects the government's failed peace policies and inability to provide adequate security for citizens and political candidates. Authorities seem more focused on making excuses for criminals than protecting people, leaving Colombians at the mercy of violent actors. The incomplete implementation of peace agreements has only emboldened these groups.
Sudan Accuses Libya's Haftar Forces of Border Attack
Sudan's army on Tuesday accused forces loyal to eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar of attacking Sudanese border posts, marking the first direct accusation of Libyan involvement in Sudan's ongoing civil war that began in April 2023.
The alleged attack occurred in the remote tri-border region between Sudan, Libya, and Egypt, with Sudanese army spokesman Nabil Abdallah claiming Haftar's troops coordinated with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to seize control of the strategic area.
Haftar's forces denied involvement in the attack, accusing Sudanese forces of attacking a Libyan military patrol while it was securing the border, calling Sudan's allegations "a blatant attempt to export Sudan's internal crisis and create a virtual external enemy."
Narrative A
This attack marks only the latest escalation and blatant violation of international law by the U.A.E.-backed forces of warlord Haftar, seeking to keep Sudan in a state of despair. Haftar's coordination with the RSF is proof of a regional conspiracy against Sudan's sovereignty, and the Libyan-Sudanese border has become an arms smuggling highway coordinated by Abu Dhabi and its terrorist militias in the region.
Narrative B
Sudan's strongman and his ruthless troops are desperately trying to blame external enemies for their internal failures and the collapse of Sudan. The Libyan forces were merely securing their border when the so-called Sudanese army attacked them. The baseless accusations are a dangerous and blatant attempt to export the Sudanese civil war crisis, thereby further destabilizing the region.
Nerd narrative
There's a 60.9% chance that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) will come out as the victor in the Sudanese civil war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ballymena Riots: 32 Officers Injured in Violence After Alleged Attempted Rape
Violent disorder has erupted in Ballymena, Northern Ireland for two consecutive nights following a peaceful protest about an alleged sexual assault on a teenage girl by two boys, with masked rioters throwing petrol bombs, bricks and fireworks at police officers.
17 police officers were injured during Tuesday night's violence, bringing the total to 32 officers hurt across both days, as authorities deployed water cannons and baton rounds to disperse crowds of approximately 300 people.
Two 14-year-old boys, who spoke through a Romanian interpreter, appeared at Coleraine Magistrates' Court charged with attempted rape in connection with the alleged sexual assault that occurred Saturday. Five have been arrested on suspicion of riotous behavior, and one on disorderly behavior.
Left narrative
The riots in Ballymena are a shameful display of far-right racism exploiting an alleged assault to stir hatred. Violence against women is a grave issue, but turning tragedy into a platform for xenophobia helps no one. This violent mob cares not about protecting women but attacking migrants, and is using this tragedy as a scapegoat for unrest.
Right narrative
The unrest reflects deep-rooted frustration within a community pushed to the brink. Locals are rightfully angry allegations of a horrific crime involving migrants is the latest flashpoint in a town already strained by unchecked immigration and a lack of government support. Dismissing this as “racism” ignores the real issues that elites refuse to address.
Nerd narrative
There is a 21% chance that Northern Ireland will hold a reunification referendum before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Atari 2600 Chess Game From 1977 Beats ChatGPT
Citrix engineer Robert Caruso has conducted an experiment pitting ChatGPT against the 1977 Atari Chess game running on an emulated Atari 2600 console. The OpenAI chatbot lost decisively on the beginner difficulty level despite the Atari console's limited 1.19 MHz processor.
The experiment began after ChatGPT volunteered to play Atari Chess during a conversation about AI and chess history, expressing confidence it could quickly defeat a system that thinks only one to two moves ahead on antiquated hardware.
However, ChatGPT struggled with basic chess mechanics during the 90-minute match, confusing rooks for bishops, missing obvious pawn forks, and repeatedly losing track of piece positions on the board. It required constant correction from Caruso to prevent catastrophic moves.
Techno-skeptic narrative
This experiment perfectly exposes the fundamental flaws of so-called "artificial intelligence." Large language models, such as ChatGPT, are essentially glorified autocomplete systems that generate plausible-sounding text without any genuine understanding, actual reasoning, or game-playing intelligence in specialized domains. The fact that a 1977 chess program can outperform ChatGPT suggests these systems are merely expensive marketing hype designed to inflate tech company valuations.
Techno-optimist narrative
While this chess experiment is amusing, it doesn't diminish ChatGPT's remarkable capabilities in language processing, creative writing, and problem-solving across countless domains. Chess requires specialized algorithms and deep game tree analysis, which isn't what large language models were designed for. The comparison is like criticizing a race car for being bad at flying — different tools serve different purposes in the AI toolkit.
Nerd narrative
There's a 75% chance that an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence will win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Ambassador Says Palestinian State No Longer Policy Goal
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said on Tuesday that establishing a Palestinian state is no longer an American foreign policy goal, telling Bloomberg, "I don’t think so" when asked if a two-state solution remained a U.S. priority.
In his interview, Huckabee claimed there was "no room" for a Palestinian state if "significant things" did not happen to change Palestinian culture, adding that he did not believe this would happen "in our lifetime."
Huckabee also questioned whether a Palestinian state would "have to be in" the West Bank and suggested that such a state could form elsewhere in the region, as Islamic countries control "644 times the amount of land" as Israel and thus are better placed to host a Palestinian state.
Pro-US narrative
Huckabee's comments to Bloomberg are very much his own. While he represents the United States in dealing with Israel, his position as ambassador does not mean that he can determine American foreign policy, which remains the preserve of the White House. As such, Huckabee was simply speaking for himself, highlighting just how hysterical the media have been in its reporting.
Pro-Israel narrative
Given current circumstances and Palestinian culture, a Palestinian state is an unrealistic prospect. If such a state is to form, Muslim nations with vastly more territory than tiny Israel should provide the land for Palestinians instead of expecting further Israeli concessions. International pressure, therefore, should not be on Israel to surrender its sovereignty.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Huckabee's interview reveals his disregard for Palestinian sovereignty and the true face of U.S. policy. His opposition to a Palestinian state is borne of a religious fanaticism that aligns him with the Israeli far-right, while his openness merely confirms what U.S. policy has always been. Indeed, Huckabee, like many members of Trump's government, are extremists who seek to destroy the Palestinian people.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that the Gaza war end and significant progress will be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rep. McIver Indicted on Federal Charges at ICE Facility
A federal grand jury indicted Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) on three counts of "forcibly impeding and interfering with federal officers" during a May 9 incident at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention facility in Newark, New Jersey. The charges carry a maximum total sentence of 17 years in prison.
McIver and other Democratic lawmakers were conducting congressional oversight at the facility while Newark Mayor Ras Baraka was being arrested for trespassing. McIver is accused of placing her arms around Baraka to prevent his arrest and striking two officers with her "forearms."
Interim U.S. Attorney Alina Habba announced the indictment and stated it was her "Constitutional obligation" to protect federal partners executing their duties. She said that while people can express views on policies, they "must not do so in a manner that endangers law enforcement."
Republican narrative
LaMonica McIver is facing the law just as any other violent criminal would. Bodycam footage reveals her punching and threatening ICE agents, impeding their lawful duties. Her party's sympathy for illegal aliens doesn't justify obstructing federal officers, and their sanctuary city policies are forcing these chaotic arrests, endangering all. They must stop excusing lawlessness and respect the rule of law.
Democratic narrative
It makes sense that Alina Habba, Trump's former personal lawyer, is twisting facts to target McIver with baseless charges. McIver protected Mayor Baraka during a scuffle at Delaney Hall, where ICE agents manhandled Congress members. Bodycam footage and Gov. Murphy confirm no assault occurred. Like Baraka's dismissed case, McIver will win, exposing Trump's tyrannical abuse of power through politically motivated prosecutions.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that an average of at least 530,000 noncitizens will be removed from the United States for fiscal years 2026 through 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk Survives Confidence Vote
Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk won a vote of confidence in parliament — which he requested after the defeat of his ally Rafal Trzaskowski in presidential elections — on Wednesday, with 243 lawmakers voting in favor and 210 against.
All of the votes in favor of Tusk's coalition government came from the four parties that make up the ideologically diverse alliance — his Civic Coalition, the Polish People's Party, Poland 2050, and The Left — ruling the 460-member lower house of parliament.
This comes after Tusk defended his government's record during the parliamentary debate, citing economic growth accelerating to more than 3% in 2025, rising defense expenditure, and a reduction in the number of visas issued to migrants from Asia and Africa.
Pro-government narrative
This is a crucial reset for Poland's democratic institutions after months of political gridlock. Tusk's government has delivered real results with Europe's highest economic growth, record defense spending, and restored international credibility. The coalition's three out of four electoral victories since 2023 highlight continued public support for the pro-European agenda despite presidential setbacks.
Government-critical narrative
The narrow confidence vote exposes the fundamental weakness of Tusk's fractured coalition and his unpopularity, with 53% of voters holding negative views of his leadership. Nawrocki's presidential victory signals the end of the Tusk project, as voters reject giving too much power to one political camp while the government fails to deliver on key promises like judicial reform and abortion rights.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that Poland's GDP per capita (in USD) will exceed that of the U.K. before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
LA Protests: Police Make Mass Arrests After Curfew
Los Angeles police Wednesday announced mass arrests in the downtown area after protesters defied Mayor Karen Bass' overnight curfew, which ran from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. following days of demonstrations against President Donald Trump's immigration enforcement operations.
The LAPD reported making more than 300 arrests over two days, with at least 25 people arrested for curfew violations on the first night, as protests escalated from initial peaceful demonstrations to incidents involving vandalism, looting of 23 businesses, and property damage.
This comes after Trump deployed 4,000 National Guard members and 700 Marines to Los Angeles without a request from state officials, at an estimated cost of $134 million for 60 days, to assist Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations targeting undocumented immigrants.
Republican narrative
While Newsom and Bass have been blaming Trump for inciting violence, they clearly needed the military deployments he's sending. It's about time that Bass instituted a curfew and had the LAPD take these riots seriously. ICE is doing what it's meant to do — getting dangerous illegal immigrants out of American cities — and if Democrats aren't going to help they should get out of the way.
Democratic narrative
Bass and the LAPD have had to take more extreme action because of the flames Trump has stoked by sending in the National Guard and Marines. The protests were mostly contained before Trump escalated the situation. But Trump wants the situation to look dire in order to increase his power and to distract from ICE's unlawful operations that are sweeping up innocent immigrants.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that at least twice as many deportations by ICE will occur in fiscal year 2025 compared with fiscal year 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.