US, China Agree on Trade Framework After London Talks

US, China Agree on Trade Framework After London Talks
Above: Howard Lutnick (C) speaks to the media at Lancaster House in London on June 10, 2025. Image copyright: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

President Trump just scored a massive win for American workers and industry. The China deal delivers rare earths on U.S. terms, imposes 55% tariffs on Chinese goods, and maintains a strong, cooperative relationship with China while reasserting U.S. leverage in global trade. This is Trump at his best — tough, strategic, and unapologetically pro-America. The ripple effects will supercharge the economy and redefine U.S. dominance in global trade.

Anti-Trump narrative

The newly announced framework may signal progress, but it stops short of resolving the deep-rooted structural issues that have long plagued U.S.-China trade. Without clear commitments or enforcement mechanisms, it risks becoming yet another temporary pause rather than a lasting solution. Markets remain cautious, noting that trust is fragile — and tariffs are likely to remain high regardless.

Pro-China narrative

China and the U.S. can and should resolve trade disputes with constructive dialogue. With candidness and openness, the China-U.S. relationship can be mended and moved forward. Beijing truly believes that mutual cooperation is a win-win for all sides.

Narrative D

In today's interconnected global economy, the U.S. and China need each other — plain and simple. The new trade framework hammered out in London reflects this mutual dependence. America relies on critical Chinese resources, such as rare earths, while China depends on U.S. technology and market access. This deal isn't just diplomacy — it's a recognition that shared prosperity demands cooperation.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up!
Sign Up Now!