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Boeing Wins $8.6B Pentagon Contract for F-15 Jets to Israel
The Pentagon announced on Monday that Boeing has been given an $8.6 billion contract for the F-15 Israel Program. The contract provides for the design, integration, testing, production and delivery of 25 new F-15IA aircraft for the Israeli Air Force.
The agreement includes an option to purchase an additional 25 F-15IA aircraft beyond the initial 25 jets. The F-15IA is a customized version of Boeing's F-15 platform tailored to Israeli operational requirements.
Work on the program will be performed in St. Louis, Missouri, and is expected to be completed by Dec. 31, 2035. The contract was awarded through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program, under which the U.S. government sells defense equipment to allied nations.
Pro-Israel narrative
Critics selectively undermine Israel, a nation defending itself on multiple fronts. The U.S. support to Israel advances U.S. strategic interests in the Middle East while creating American jobs, as most equipment is manufactured domestically. Aid is subject to human rights compliance laws and has bipartisan support despite some fringe opposition.
Anti-Israel narrative
Majority support for halting U.S. arms to Israel has been consistent. Polls across swing states have shown voters favor conditioning aid, yet the U.S. government ignores this mainstream position to continue providing weapons packages. Germany and other nations suspended arms exports following ICC warrants, but America keeps funding operations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 0.1% chance that Boeing will release a new midsize aircraft, likely called the 797, into commercial service before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Cuts UN Humanitarian Aid to $2B From $17B Peak
The United States pledged $2 billion for U.N. humanitarian aid on Monday, a significant reduction from previous contributions that reached as much as $17 billion annually in recent years. The funding will be administered through the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
The agreement establishes a new funding model requiring the U.N. to consolidate humanitarian functions and reduce bureaucratic overheads. Seventeen countries will initially receive assistance, including Ukraine, Syria, Haiti, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Afghanistan, Yemen and Gaza are not included in the initial funding package. State Department officials stated that Gaza will be addressed through a separate track related to President Trump's peace plan.
Pro-establishment narrative
The new $2 billion humanitarian model saves taxpayers nearly $1.9 billion through consolidated funding that eliminates bureaucratic waste and duplication, while delivering double the impact per dollar spent. Flexible pooled funding replaces the outdated grant system, ensures powerful accountability mechanisms and forces bloated U.N. agencies to reform or disappear. This approach maintains America's position as the world's most generous humanitarian donor, while requiring other developed nations to finally share the burden.
Establishment-critical narrative
Slashing humanitarian aid from $17 billion to $2 billion creates catastrophic underfunding that directly causes deaths, hunger and displacement for millions worldwide. The cuts force clinic closures, suspend education for hundreds of thousands of refugee children and trigger surges in preventable diseases like HIV/AIDS and malnutrition. Countries facing famine and war like Sudan, Afghanistan and Yemen lose critical lifelines precisely when global needs have reached record levels.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the Global Fund will receive at least $15.3B in total contributions in its next year cycle (2028), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Artists Cancel Shows Amid Kennedy Center Name Change
Jazz supergroup the Cookers became the latest artist to cancel scheduled performances at the Trump-Kennedy Center this week, after the center's board voted to rename the institution earlier this month, adding President Donald Trump's name to the venue.
The Cookers cancelled two New Year's Eve concerts, stating that "jazz was born from struggle" for freedom of expression. The band didn't explicitly cite the venue's recent name change as the reason for cancellation, though they follow a slew of other artists' cancellations since the change.
Doug Varone and Dancers have also canceled two April performances at the venue since the change was announced. Varone stated that the decision was "financially devastating but morally exhilarating," noting that the company would lose $40,000 by pulling out of the shows.
Anti-Trump narrative
Trump's hostile takeover of the Kennedy Center represents authoritarian censorship disguised as cultural leadership, stripping away the institution's autonomy and silencing diverse artistic voices. Artists are fleeing and performances celebrating LGBTQ+ communities are being canceled because creative expression no longer feels safe under his narrow, politically motivated agenda. This isn't about elevating American art — it's about enforcing ideological control over culture and erasing perspectives that challenge his worldview.
Pro-Trump narrative
Chuck Redd's last-minute concert cancellation was a self-serving political stunt that disappointed audiences and cost the venue considerably after years of poor ticket sales. True artists perform for everyone regardless of politics, but Redd chose attention-seeking theatrics over professionalism. The Kennedy Center's renaming recognizes Trump's role in saving the institution from financial ruin with $250 million in renovations and reflects bipartisan support for America's premier cultural venue.
Study: Dark Energy May Be Weakening
A study published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society by researchers at Yonsei University in Seoul suggests that dark energy may be weakening and the universe has entered a phase of decelerated expansion, challenging the long-held view of eternal acceleration.
The research team examined Type IA supernovae in 300 host galaxies and discovered that the luminosity of these stellar explosions is linked to the age of their progenitor stars, with older stellar populations producing brighter explosions and younger ones appearing systematically dimmer.
The findings align with measurements from the Cosmic Microwave Background and Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations, suggesting that the expansion of the universe engine may be running out of steam rather than accelerating indefinitely as previously thought.
Narrative A
Dark energy's weakening represents a paradigm shift that fundamentally alters the universe's fate from eternal expansion to eventual collapse. Statistical analysis exceeding sigma significance shows the universe already entered deceleration, with expansion slowing as dark energy evolves far more rapidly than previously understood. The Big Crunch becomes increasingly likely as gravity reasserts dominance over a fading dark energy force.
Narrative B
Dark matter detection moves closer to reality as gamma ray emissions near the galactic center match predictions for particle collisions just as well as alternative explanations. The Fermi telescope data combined with advanced simulations demonstrates dark matter fits observations perfectly, potentially confirming what gravitational effects have long suggested. Ground-based telescopes coming online by 2026 may definitively prove dark matter's existence through direct detection of these telltale gamma ray signatures. The big crunch far from a foregone conclusion.
Nerd narrative
There is a 54% chance that we will know what Dark Matter is before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Myanmar Military-Backed Party Claims Election Victory
The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party has claimed victory in 82 of 102 lower house seats contested in the first phase of Myanmar's junta-organized elections. The party also reported winning all eight townships in the capital Naypyidaw, though the Union Election Commission has not released official results.
On Sunday, Myanmar held the first phase of elections in 102 townships; voting was canceled in 65 townships due to ongoing armed conflicts between the military and opposition forces. Two additional phases are scheduled for Jan. 11 and Jan. 25.
The elections excluded the National League for Democracy, which was dissolved in 2023 along with 39 other parties after refusing to register under new military rules. Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has been detained since the 2021 military coup that overthrew her elected government.
Pro-government narrative
Myanmar's multiparty democratic election is being conducted transparently and lawfully with electronic voting machines that ensure genuine results free from external interference. International observers confirmed the election was high-standard and orderly — enthusiastic public participation demonstrates confidence in the process and security measures.
Government-critical narrative
The junta-run poll is a sham designed to entrench military rule — the military-proxy party dominated it after banning real opposition and excluding conflict zones from voting. The election lacks credibility as it was rigged beforehand through party bans and coercion, and low turnout reflects public exhaustion and distrust of a process that benefits only military generals.
Nerd narrative
There's a 99.7% chance that the Myanmar military junta will collapse after 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Russia Deploys Oreshnik Missile System to Belarus
Russia's Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday that the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system has entered active service in Belarus. The ministry released video footage showing mobile combat vehicles carrying the missile system during training exercises in a forested area.
Russia first tested the Oreshnik in November 2024, striking a facility in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. President Vladimir Putin described the attack as a successful test and said the missile's warheads travel at speeds up to Mach 10.
During a meeting of the board of the Russian Defence Ministry earlier this month, Putin said that the Oreshnik would enter combat duty before the year's end and warned that Moscow would seek to extend its gains in Ukraine if Kyiv and its Western allies reject the Kremlin's demands in peace talks.
Anti-Russia narrative
Deploying nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles to Belarus puts European capitals directly in the crosshairs and signifies an unacceptable escalation. This military asset poses an immediate threat that demands action. The system must be destroyed before it further endangers allied security.
Pro-Russia narrative
The Oreshnik deployment fulfills legitimate security agreements between Russia and Belarus under their Union State treaty. This advanced hypersonic system ensures strategic parity against Western military expansion. The placement directly responds to aggressive NATO actions near Russian borders.
Narrative C
The Oreshnik deployment is symbolic, not strategic. There is zero military advantage in placing systems in Belarus instead of Russia, and it offers no added capability. The deployment serves politics alone, signaling pressure and alliance loyalty rather than improving battlefield effectiveness.
Nerd narrative
There's a 0.1% chance that Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: 75% of US Adults Obese Under New Waist-Based Criteria
In a study published Monday in JAMA Network Open, researchers from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard University, Yale University and Yale New Haven Health examined obesity prevalence using revised criteria that incorporate waist-based measurements alongside Body Mass Index (BMI).
The study analyzed data from more than 14,000 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2017 and 2023 — approximately 237.7 million U.S. adults — and found that 75.2% met criteria for obesity under the new definition.
The study found that nearly four in 10 adults with a normal BMI were found to have excess body fat when waist-based measures were applied, and obesity prevalence increased sharply with age and was higher among Hispanic adults.
Narrative A
BMI is the standard measure for determining obesity. Yet, the waist-to-height ratio reveals the true scope of America's metabolic crisis that BMI measurements miss entirely. When the waist exceeds half the height, the risk of insulin resistance, fatty liver, and heart disease skyrockets, regardless of weight. Expanding obesity criteria to include body fat distribution identifies 75% of adults facing real health dangers.
Narrative B
Obesity diagnosis has become a mess because BMI was never meant to diagnose disease, and it can't tell who's actually sick. Relying on this flawed metric creates millions of misdiagnoses, labeling healthy muscular people as diseased while missing thin people with dangerous organ fat who desperately need treatment. Medicine must finally define what obesity illness actually is beyond just body size.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 68.5% of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Iran President Orders Dialogue as Currency Crisis Sparks Protests
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian instructed the country's interior minister to listen to the "legitimate demands" of protesters and engage in dialogue with their representatives late Monday. A government spokesperson confirmed that a mechanism for dialogue would be established.
This comes amid Tehran's largest protests in three years, which began on Sunday after Iran's currency fell to a record low, with the U.S. dollar trading at around 1.42 million rials compared to 820,000 rials a year ago. The Iranian rial lost nearly half its value against the dollar in 2025.
Demonstrations have spread from Tehran's Grand Bazaar to major cities including Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad and Hamadan. Protesters chanted slogans such as "death to the dictator" and "azadi," the Farsi word for freedom.
Anti-Iran narrative
Iran is one of the world's most brutal and repressive regimes, and the latest concession from the president represents a seismic shift. The people of Iran deserve freedom, and it will come one way or another. The scale and extent of these protests makes one thing clear regardless of the sincerity of the president's offer of dialogue change will come with or without the consent of the ruling elite.
Pro-Iran narrative
Contrary to the opinion of the enemies of the Islamic Republic, the government rules by consent of the governed, and is taking into account the real feelings of the people of the nation. This is only surprising to those who believe in the misinformation about Iran. What is paramount is preventing the protests to be a proxy for sowing chaos by Western actors, who are already manipulating the narrative.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Judge Blocks End to Protected Status for South Sudanese
U.S. District Judge Angel Kelley in Boston, Mass., granted an emergency request on Tuesday to block the Trump administration from ending temporary protected status for South Sudanese nationals, preventing the protections from expiring after Jan. 5.
The lawsuit was filed by four South Sudanese migrants and African Communities Together, a nonprofit immigrant rights group, alleging that the Department of Homeland Security's action was unlawful and exposed them to deportation to a country facing humanitarian crises.
Approximately 232 South Sudanese nationals currently reportedly hold temporary protected status in the United States, with another 73 applications pending, according to court filings.
Republican narrative
Activist judges are blocking the President's mandate to clamp down on abuses of the immigration system. The U.S. cannot afford to shelter all of the world's needy and must make decisions regarding safe countries that activists will never be satisfied with. President Trump's deportation plans are making America safer and stronger.
Democratic narrative
The Trump administration's deportation regime has reached new, cruel heights. South Sudan is one of the world's most fraught and dangerous countries. This maneuvering to send South Sudanese nationals back to a warzone was thankfully stopped by a judge, but it is apparent that no immigrant is safe from this mass deportation agenda.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the average number of noncitizens removed from the U.S. for fiscal years 2026 through 2028 will be at least 446,000 people, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Palestine Action Hunger Strikers' Health Worsens
Activist group Prisoners for Palestine announced on Monday that the health of four Palestine Action detainees in U.K. prisons who went on hunger strike almost two months ago is rapidly deteriorating. The government has so far not made contact with the hunger strikers.
One of the hunger strikers is reportedly unable to stand without passing out, while another has lost the ability to speak. Eight members of Palestine Action initially went on hunger strike, but only four have continued the protest.
Families and supporters of the hunger strikers have called on Deputy U.K Prime Minister and Justice Secretary David Lammy to meet with the protesters, with their lawyers arguing that the government has so far failed to comply with the Ministry of Justice's policy on handling hunger strikes.
Pro-establishment narrative
The government is treating these pro-Hamas criminals exactly how it should. These "protesters" broke the law and now expect the U.K. to simply look the other way because they're willing to cause physical harm to themselves. If the government were to acquiesce to their absurd demands, it would set a dangerous and sinister precedent that the positions of the British state can be undermined through violence and coercion.
Establishment-critical narrative
The U.K. government's lack of action regarding these hunger strikers is a disgrace. Indeed, the government would rather run cover for a genocidal apartheid state on the other side of the world than protect the rights of British citizens. Furthermore, the government is undermining its own policies just to appease Israeli interests.