Democratic narrative

Walz's administration has taken comprehensive action against fraud through audits, payment pauses and criminal prosecutions. As several state officials have documented millions, far from the $9 billion estimate, it's clear that the Trump administration and its allies in Congress continue pushing for a politically motivated sensationalism.

Republican narrative

Minnesota's fraud scandal likely is the largest in U.S. history, with billions funneled through fraudulent operations that can't even spell "learning" correctly on their signs. While an influencer in a single day of investigation uncovered over $110 million in apparent fraud at empty facilities, Walz provided years of cover as whistleblowers were silenced.

Nerd narrative

There's an 80% chance that the Democratic candidate will win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

In what would be another diplomatic victory for Trump, the U.S. is on the verge of arranging the first diplomatic discussion between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia. Such talks have not taken place for more than five years, and if he pulls it off, he will have successfully taken the first meaningful steps toward ending this war. Otherwise, this war could go on for a very long time, and no one wants to see that.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

The point peace plan is around 90% there, including agreement on U.S.-Ukraine security guarantees and a prosperity plan. Both nations' teams will meet in the coming weeks to finalise all matters discussed, while Trump will host Ukrainian and European leaders. The issue that remains concerns territory, which Ukraine takes a very different view of than Russia. Ukraine has to respect its law and its people, but a referendum is possible.

Pro-Russia narrative

Before Zelenskyy met with Trump, the U.S. President had a call with Russian leader Putin. The whole world, and especially the Russian people, are grateful for Trump's efforts to end the conflict. Progress is being made.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by April 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

China's military drills around Taiwan are unilateral provocation that destabilizes the entire region and undermines self-determination. These irresponsible actions threaten peace and must stop immediately. Taiwan's people, democratic values and sovereignty deserve protection from Beijing's coercive, aggressive intimidation tactics.

Pro-China narrative

The military exercises serve as legitimate defense of national sovereignty against dangerous external interference. US arms sales totaling $11.1 billion directly violate the one-China policy and embolden separatist forces. These drills demonstrate justified resolve to prevent Taiwan from becoming a flashpoint through American provocation.

Narrative C

Beijing's latest exercises were not directed at Taipei, but at deterring external military intervention for the first time, PLA doctrine explicitly signals Japan. The drills will end routinely and the strategic shift will endure, altering Indo-Pacific calculations permanently after decades of strategic ambiguity collapse.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-government narrative

Pressuring states that refuse to readmit their own nationals is necessary to keep border enforcement credible. Deportation decisions mean little if returns can be delayed or blocked at will by countries of origin. Allowing the return of criminals and irregular migrants to be obstructed undermines the rule of law and public trust.

Government-critical narrative

Imposing blanket visa restrictions punishes ordinary travelers, students, and diplomats for disputes they did not create, while leaving the root drivers of migration untouched. These performative measures amount to scapegoating, fueling racism and social tension rather than delivering workable solutions, while targeting countries that issue only a few hundred work and study visas a year turns enforcement into political theater.

Techno-optimist narrative

AI's growing capabilities present challenges that require thoughtful management, not fear-mongering, as the same technology used to exploit systemic vulnerabilities can also make them more secure. OpenAI's preparedness team will facilitate the safe deployment of these powerful capabilities, enabling cybersecurity defenders while preventing misuse.

Techno-skeptic narrative

The rush toward increasingly more advanced systems of AI poses a fundamental threat to human freedom, economic security and even survival itself. With the stakes so high, mitigation is not enough. AI companies must pause development entirely until advanced AI systems have a scientific consensus confirming their safety and genuine public support.

Nerd narrative

There is a 0.8% chance that OpenAI will announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Iran narrative

Iran's resistance to Western hegemony represents a legitimate moral challenge to a rigged international system that selectively enforces rules while arming genocidal regimes. The Israeli attack using American and European weapons proves the West operates in alliance with genocidal goals, destroying any pretense of international law while Iran exercises remarkable restraint against an existential threat manufactured by propaganda.

Anti-Iran narrative

Iran races toward nuclear weapons capability with enough enriched uranium for nine bombs, forcing Israel to act before Tehran achieves its genocidal aims against the Jewish state and the Western world. The regime's sanctions evasion networks and proxy terror armies represent an existential threat that diplomacy cannot resolve, making maximum pressure and military action the only rational response to religious fanaticism.

Nerd narrative

There is a 55% chance that Iran will recognize Israel before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the future will be challenging, it's essential that both Israel and Hamas stick to the ceasefire. Many aspects of the deal are potentially problematic, but nothing is gained from returning to war. Hamas must follow through with what it agreed to, and, in turn, Israel should not escalate the situation.

Pro-Israel narrative

Trump must understand that Israel has to retain operational freedom to finish dismantling Hamas' military infrastructure and counter Iranian threats, as roughly 30% of security objectives remain unfulfilled. Diplomatic solutions alone cannot guarantee regional stability when hostile actors still possess military capabilities. Indeed, peace can only be found through force.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Hamas' proposal for weapon management with international guarantees offers a viable path to sustaining the ceasefire without further bloodshed. Pragmatic diplomacy is the only way to achieve regional stability, something Israel has consistently undermined. Netanyahu wants more war on the United States' dime, and Trump should pressure him to stick to the ceasefire.

Pro-government narrative

Royal commissions take many years, while urgent action is needed now to implement security recommendations and protect Australians. The independent Richardson review will deliver facts quickly without providing a public platform for the worst voices of antisemitism to relive hateful statements from the past two years. Federal agencies need immediate improvements in the months ahead, not delays from a years-long inquiry that doesn't suit sensitive national security investigations.

Government-critical narrative

Albanese owes grieving families answers and accountability for ignoring clear warning signs while anti-Semitic hatred and Islamic extremism grew dangerously unchecked. Jewish Australians now live in fear at schools, workplaces and public spaces, facing a national crisis that demands a powerful national response through a royal commission. The Prime Minister is thumbing his nose at victims' families — hiding behind process and fearing what a royal commission would expose about his government's failings.

Pro-Trump narrative

President Trump's reported strike inside Venezuela signals a clear break from years of rhetorical stalemate and selective enforcement. By targeting a major drug production facility, the administration frames action as deterrence rather than regime change, restoring credibility to red lines long ignored. Decisive force replaces ambiguity, signaling to Maduro and external backers that U.S. warnings carry consequences. The message is not escalation for its own sake, but control through resolve, disrupting illicit networks and reasserting leverage where passivity had failed.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's claim of striking a "big facility" in Venezuela arrives without evidence, detail, or independent confirmation. It reads less like military disclosure than staged dominance, where implication replaces accountability. Strategic ambiguity is not a constraint but the point, allowing violence to be suggested without scrutiny or consequence. Venezuela becomes a rhetorical prop in a familiar performance, one where spectacle substitutes for policy and assertion stands in for proof — not facts, a dynamic that makes the world less safe and sharpens regional tensions.

Nerd narrative

There is a 76% chance that there will be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.