Left narrative

Bolsonaro's endorsement of his eldest son defies all political logic and hands Lula a fourth term. Flávio trails Lula by 15 points in opinion polls, lacks party support beyond his own, and his candidacy triggered billions to vanish from markets as investors recognized the move as a desperate dynasty's last gasp. It doesn't help that he is the heir of a jailed coup leader.

Right narrative

Flávio Bolsonaro is the only legitimate opposition to Lula and the Brazilian Supreme Court that imprisoned his father without any crime. If center-right parties want the backing of Bolsonaro supporters, they cannot ignore the judicial abuses that turned Jair Bolsonaro and many other conservatives in Brazil into political prisoners. This isn't the time for amoral pragmatism, but rather to fight a corrupt system.

Narrative C

Some may argue that endorsing his own son is a poor choice given the rejection of their family name and the heavy political baggage Flávio himself carries, but Jair Bolsonaro has previously been right against the odds. When presidential election results come out in October, the former president will face a final test of whether his political instincts remain sharp.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

After years of inaction while IS terrorists slaughtered over 7,000 Christians in Nigeria this year alone, Trump finally delivered on his promise to stop the massacre. The Christmas Day strikes eliminated multiple IS militants who have been viciously targeting innocent Christians at unprecedented levels. This decisive military action shows real leadership in protecting persecuted religious minorities worldwide.

Anti-Trump narrative

This politically motivated stunt misrepresents the actual security crisis on the ground. Both Christians and Muslims have been massacred by IS; data shows 417 Muslims killed in targeted attacks compared to 317 Christians between 2020 and 2025. This military intervention ignores the complex reality of communal violence, farmer-herder conflicts and indiscriminate terrorism that affects all Nigerians regardless of faith.

Narrative C

The strikes were conducted without the genuine authority or informed consent of those exercising governmental power under Tinubu. The operation, framed as a joint one, reflects weakened sovereignty under him and suggests indifference to Nigerian lives. Nigeria's inability to safeguard its territory leaves it sidelined as foreign power prevails. Only credible, informed leadership can truly protect Nigerians and restore dignity, accountability and democratic authority nationwide.

Nerd narrative

There's an 18% chance that the U.S. will attack Nigeria before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-government narrative

The Federal Government is taking decisive action by deploying additional tactical teams to track down terrorists responsible for the Maiduguri mosque attack. Security agencies are working around the clock under presidential orders to intensify operations and bring perpetrators to justice. The administration's unwavering commitment to constitutional duty ensures those responsible will face the full weight of the law.

Government-critical narrative

This bombing exposes the government's complete failure to protect its own citizens. Nigeria's widespread killings and insecurity are being mischaracterized as a religious war, but the crisis reflects deep governance failures and weak state protection. Both Christians and Muslims suffer in attacks across many states, and focusing on religion distracts from structural issues driving violence and eroding social cohesion.

Nerd narrative

There's a 35% chance that Nigeria's population will exceed 400 million before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

The administration's attempt to deport a green card holder with U.S. family solely for combating antisemitism and protecting children from social media harm represents blatantly unconstitutional government overreach. A federal judge immediately recognized this obvious violation and granted a restraining order as the government cannot silence truth-tellers simply for speaking out against powerful interests. This effort to ban vital researchers who expose online hate and disinformation won't succeed in intimidating those committed to keeping Americans safe.

Right narrative

Foreign activists have weaponized nongovernmental organizations to coerce American tech platforms into censoring protected American speech, creating serious national security threats that demand immediate action. These radical European ideologues advanced foreign government censorship campaigns against U.S. companies and citizens under the guise of combating disinformation. America is finally reclaiming First Amendment sovereignty by treating this industrialized, transnational censorship apparatus as the threat it truly represents.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that AI will be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Russia narrative

Russian airspace violations demand an immediate military response. Shooting down intruding aircraft isn't escalation — it's necessary deterrence that reinforces red lines and prevents further provocations. Cold War history proves both superpowers shot down intruders without triggering broader conflict, and Putin only respects force, as Turkey's 2015 shootdown demonstrated.

Pro-Russia narrative

NATO's relentless eastward expansion and military buildup genuinely prepare for war, not defense. Poland is purchasing 1,000 tanks and 32 F-35s, Germany is rebuilding military power, and infrastructure construction near borders mirrors pre-World War II aggression. Western powers encircled Russia after promising otherwise, provoking conflict while claiming peaceful intentions. This recent "incident" neglects the fact that these were scheduled flights over international waters.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Wikipedia will report Russia having procured at least 53 Su-57 fighter jets before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

China's sanctions are pure theater that won't hurt U.S. defense firms operating outside Chinese supply chains. The $11 billion arms package gives Taiwan HIMARS systems capable of striking mainland staging areas — making invasion math impossible for Beijing. When China responds with asset freezes rather than military action, it proves that American deterrence is working.

Pro-China narrative

The U.S. violated the one-China principle with provocative arms sales that undermine sovereignty and territorial integrity. Taiwan is the first red line in relations that must not be crossed, and companies profiting from these dangerous moves will pay the price. Arming Taiwan sends wrong signals to separatist forces and threatens peace across the Strait.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance that China will recognize Taiwan's sovereignty by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The government is doing what it can to release the files under legitimate legal constraints. While the process appears slow and politically motivated, agencies must navigate complex statutory requirements and redaction procedures. Courts, not politicians, ultimately control disclosure timelines. The heavily redacted documents reflect necessary compliance with federal law protecting sensitive information, even if transparency advocates find this frustrating.

Establishment-critical narrative

The DOJ's sudden discovery of a million additional Epstein documents strains credulity. This convenient revelation delays transparency indefinitely while the administration protects powerful figures. The timing reeks of political calculation, burying damaging information behind bureaucratic excuses. Either they're criminally incompetent at records management or deliberately stonewalling. Either way, it's a betrayal of public trust and accountability.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that Trump will pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan. 21, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel's recognition of Somaliland marks a historic diplomatic victory that rewards decades of resilience and self-determination. This partnership will foster security, innovation and prosperity while expanding cooperation in agriculture and economic development. This is another triumph for peace-building diplomacy over destabilizing forces in the region.

Anti-Israel narrative

Recognizing Somaliland as independent threatens international stability by violating Somalia's territorial integrity and established principles of international law. This dangerous precedent undermines the foundations of the global order where sovereignty and territorial unity must remain inviolable. The unilateral move destabilizes the Horn of Africa and rejects the legitimate authority of Somalia's government.

Narrative C

Israel's recognition of Somaliland is shaped by Red Sea insecurity, disrupted shipping routes and the strategic importance of the Gulf of Aden. Berbera's port and coastline have gained geopolitical value amid Houthi attacks and regional tensions. The move also intersects with sensitive debates over Gaza displacement, prompting domestic caution in Somaliland despite official reassurances.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 10 countries will formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state by August 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Children lack fully developed brains and shouldn't be permitted to make irreversible medical decisions about gender transitions. Society requires age restrictions for voting, tattoos and alcohol, yet some want to allow minors to undergo permanent chemical and surgical procedures. Protecting children from life-altering medical interventions until adulthood is essential and non-negotiable.

Democratic narrative

Medical decisions should belong to patients and doctors, not politicians seeking to impose government control over health care. Gender-affirming care follows evidence-based standards established by medical professionals, and federal overreach threatens to deny necessary treatment while undermining state authority over medical practice. Protecting access to medically necessary care ensures dignity and freedom for families.