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Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest — CBS News Battleground Tracker
CBSJUL 2022
The Spin
Democratic narrative
While the president has seen his approval ratings plummet, the outlook for other Democrats isn't nearly as bad – and has even been looking up ahead of the midterms. SCOTUS' overturning of Roe v. Wade, and extremist Trump-like candidates running for the GOP have given Democratic voters a reason to get out and vote.
Republican narrative
Democrats are running against history, as the party in power almost always loses ground in Congress in midterm elections. With Biden's approval ratings remaining low, if the Republicans focus on rampant inflation, crime, and the economy, the GOP can certainly win the House and possibly the Senate, too.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 41% chance that the Republican party will control both the House and the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
