A dreaded "red wave" was thwarted in the US midterms, in large part due to the extraordinary voting power of "Gen Z." Whether Biden chooses to run or not in 2024, the deeper issue for the Democratic party is how to select leadership that will speak to the issues relevant to this emerging voter bloc. This election proved that the future is now.
Biden is already the oldest sitting president in US history and has poor approval ratings. Things don't look good for the president for a 2024 run. Despite some setbacks in the 2022 midterms, the GOP is looking solid for the next election — especially if Biden insists on trying to carry the mantle.
There's a 48% chance that Trump will win the 2024 US Presidential Election if it is Biden v. Trump, according to the Metaculus prediction community.