China launches military drills in ‘stern warning’ to Taiwan after US visit
Al JazeeraJUN 2023
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
Following Lai's provocative US transit, Beijing had no other option but to hold these joint military exercises around the island as a sharp countermeasure to punish secessionist forces and to safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. While it's in the PRC's best interest to peacefully reunite Taiwan with the mainland, Lai's provocations and conspiracy with foreign powers can't be tolerated.
Anti-China narrative
While Beijing may see Taiwanese leaders visiting the US as a threat to its claims over the island that it has never been ruled, Chinese warplanes have encroached on Taiwan's air defense zone nearly daily for months. Lai's US trips are just an excuse — China will use every pretext to undermine regional security and continuously oppress its peaceful neighbors.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 5% chance that there will be armed conflict between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China before January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
