The Spin
Anti-China narrative
China’s claims are an attempt at damage control after it failed to convince the world that the surveillance balloon was a weather balloon. As the world’s leading espionage actor, China won’t be able to easily cast the US as the antagonist in this situation.
Pro-China narrative
By using its advanced technology for spying — not just in China but on every continent — the US is the one saber-rattling and posing military risks, not China. The US should respect the sovereignty of all nations and put its technology to more peaceful, helpful uses.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 19% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
