The communication breakdown between the U.S. and China raises the risk of an unintended crisis
NBCJUL 2023
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
After Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, the move was rightly not recognized by the international community. Crimea remains a part of Ukraine, and the country should be given the weapons it needs, such as long-range precision missiles, in order to achieve its objective of reclaiming its territory.
Establishment-critical narrative
After nearly a decade in Russian hands, Crimea is heavily fortified and any campaign to retake the territory would be fraught with difficulty. The only options are an amphibious assault — that requires air and naval superiority, which Ukraine doesn't have — or via a thin strip of land that's easy to defend. Ukraine should give up on such unrealistic ambitions.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
