Iran pardons some protesters, revealing ‘tens of thousands’ detained
PBS NewsHourJUL 2023
Iran Agrees to Pardon 'Tens of Thousands' of Prisoners
Image copyright: Wana News Agency/Reuters [via The Guardian]
The Spin
Pro-Iran narrative
This clemency granted to celebrate the 44th anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution is a welcomed move to restore national unity and cohesion, saving Iranian youth who were deceived by the enemy's conspiracy to take part in the recent wave of unrest in the country. This is welcomed by Iranians across the country as a countermeasure to foreign plots.
Anti-Iran narrative
This move is merely an Iranian regime propaganda move. It will not impact the vast majority of political prisoners as the eligibility criteria for the amnesty has excluded most demonstrators. As such, it is unlikely that this imitation of clemency will appease protesters who have demanded Khamenei to be ousted. Tens of thousands of Iranians still linger in state jails as political prisoners.
Metaculus Prediction
There's an 18% chance that Ali Khameini will cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
