Ceasefire implemented in Nagorno-Karabakh as ethnic Armenians prepare to leave
NBCJUL 2023
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Announces Its Dissolution
The Spin
Narrative A
Hundreds of years of Armenian history will soon be erased as Azerbaijan seeks to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh to its indigenous Armenian population. The world, yet again, is watching in silence as long-dispossessed people are pushed out of their homeland.
Narrative B
Azerbaijan has finally triumphed and reclaimed its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. This will dislodge Armenia's military presence in the region and ensure the return of refugees displaced by Armenia in the first war — Azerbaijan only seeks to live in harmony with its neighbors.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 1% chance that the UN Security Council will adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before Oct. 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
