The Spin
Anti-Iran narrative
It's a no-brainer that Iran helped Hamas carry out the brutal attacks against Israel. The group is financially dependent on Iran and doesn't make critical decisions without the country's explicit backing.
Pro-Iran narrative
While Iran unequivocally supports Palestine's legitimate efforts to bring seven decades of oppressive and illegal occupation of its territory by Israel to an end, Saturday's attacks — which reveal the failure of Israel's security organizations — were nothing to do with Tehran.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 30% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
