Report: Pentagon Boosting Arsenal of AI-Powered Autonomous Vehicles

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The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

As the military use of AI-powered autonomous drones inevitably expands, governments across the globe must promise to use them only in a limited capacity. These weapons should be prohibited from targeting areas containing humans — ideally, their scope would be narrowed to just military objects. This technology makes on-the-battlefield decisions without human input, which means the humans who build them can and must program them to steer clear of people in the first place.

Pro-establishment narrative

While it's understandable to question the legality and morality of autonomous weapon systems, US adversaries like China won't care about such debates. Western countries — with the goal of defending freedom and peace — need to responsibly develop these weapons faster and in larger quantities if they hope to deter enemy regimes. These next-generation weapons are already being used in Ukraine, so it's best if democratic allies control their global use before autocrats do.

Metaculus Prediction

There's an 11% chance that the United States will sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO