US must be ready for simultaneous wars with China, Russia, report says
ReutersJUL 2023
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
The Congressional report sounds more like a military-industrial complex public relations stunt than a serious study. Its conclusions are irresponsible given that any decision to boost the number of US strategic nuclear weapons risks triggering a new nuclear arms race with China and Russia. Instead of following the archaic Cold War logic with unpredictable consequences for the US and the world, it would be in the US national security interest to pursue arms control and disarmament diplomacy.
Pro-establishment narrative
The report is a powerful reminder that the US needs to adjust its strategic posture and strengthen its nuclear deterrent given China and Russia's nuclear modernization push and aggressive foreign policies. If Washington hopes to protect the rules-based international order, US nuclear strategy must remain effective in a two-nuclear-peer arena, which also requires higher defense spending. The Cold War teaches that autocratic regimes understand only the language of deterrence.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that the next "Great Power" war will occur by July 2048, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/4EWTRKLMWJP5TFUQDFKSLHL7Z4.jpg)
