Ukraine Alters Military Plans in Wake of Pentagon Leaks

Image copyright: Getty Images [via the Washington Post]

The Spin

Narrative A

While it's understood that the US has one of the most sophisticated intelligence apparatuses in the world, the leaked documents provide a rare glimpse into how the country spies on its allies and foes alike. The revelations are likely to anger some of its closest partners at a time when cohesion is badly needed.

Narrative B

While the leaks may show some accurate information, this bears the hallmarks of an American disinformation operation. This release was created to prompt confusion among Russian ranks ahead of Ukraine's plans to launch a spring counteroffensive.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 3.5% chance that NATO Article 5 collective defense action will be taken before Jan. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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