Another Chinese spy balloon? Taiwan says it's spotted one flying over the region
CBSJUL 2023
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
The US must realize that, on top of the low cost-effectiveness of using the island of Taiwan as its pawn against the Chinese mainland, deepening military ties with Taiwanese secessionists can only aggravate tensions across the Straits. Given that Beijing will never abstain from safeguarding its national sovereignty and territorial integrity, America should support peaceful reunification.
Pro-establishment narrative
Washington has sought to find a diplomatic route to ease tensions with Beijing in the Pacific Ocean, notably in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, but to no avail, so hard power is needed to prevent an attack on Taiwan. Though some may claim that ramping up military support for Taiwan could be a risky provocation, facts say otherwise, as the PRC has long exploited US hesitance to pressure the island.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 42% chance that China will engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
