A proposed amendment lacks 1 word that could drive voter turnout: ‘abortion’
Associated PressAUG 2024
Arizona, Missouri to Vote on Abortion Rights in November
Above: Members of Arizona for Abortion Access hold a protest condemning Arizona House Republicans and the 1864 abortion ban on April 17, 2024, in Phoenix, Arizona. Image copyright: Rebecca Noble/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Democratic narrative
Anti-choice conservatives are in for a rude awakening come November, as just about every pro-abortion ballot measure has passed on the state level. Americans don't want the government to dictate their reproductive choices and have overwhelmingly spurned the GOP's restrictive proposals. The repeal of Roe has turned into a political goal for the Republicans, and the backlash has only just begun.
Republican narrative
For the sake of playing politics, the pro-abortion left has obfuscated what abortion restrictions mean for women and is putting radically lenient proposals on the ballot. No state lacks an exception for the life of the mother concerning abortion, and misinformed doctors have even spread that myth to desperate women. We don't need abortion on demand; we need to keep women and children safe.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that at least 55% of US States will have Casey-era abortion rights on May 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.