Palestinian detainees from Gaza say they are facing abuse in Israeli prisons
NPR Online NewsJUL 2024
Biden, Netanyahu Discuss Gaza Cease-Fire in Oval Office
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Above: U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office at the White House on July 25, 2024 in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Andrew Harnik/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, preserve Israel's security, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. The US will continue to work toward closing the gaps and ensuring that peace and stability can be restored to the region.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel wants to make a deal and get its hostages back, but it cannot allow Hamas to stay in power. If Hamas is allowed to remain in power in Gaza, the group will immediately begin planning the next Oct. 7 terrorist attack. Though there are pressures at home and abroad to end the war prematurely, Israel must do what is best for its citizens.
Metaculus Prediction
Though Israel's war on Gaza must end as soon as possible, it's clear that Israel wants to indefinitely occupy the strip. Israel has failed miserably at defeating Hamas, as the group continues to re-emerge in areas deemed "cleared." Indeed, Netanyahu's political ambitions incentivize him to perpetuate this genocidal campaign as long as possible. Regardless of a deal, this war has no end in sight.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 40% chance that an Israel-Hamas conflict cease-fire lasting at least 30 days will be agreed to before Nov. 5, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
